By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform – February 2, 2024
The Republican Party Presidential Caucus, with a January deadline to change party registration to participate, is the likely cause of an across the board increase in party voter share in last month. Democratic party voter share, despite the upcoming Democratic Party Presidential Preference Primary, fell along with Non-Partisan and minor party, the likely source of voters switching.
Not withstanding the Republican gains and Non-Partisan loses, Non-Partisan remains the largest bloc of voters state-wide, in Clark County, and among voters 18 to 54 years of age. Vote share of those not registered as either Democratic or Republican remains the largest group in Washoe County.
State-Wide
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 1,757 | 0.30% | 30.83% | -0.05% |
| R | 6,749 | 1.22% | 28.96% | 0.21% |
| NP | 1,049 | 0.16% | 32.96% | -0.10% |
| IAP | -176 | -0.21% | 4.35% | -0.03% |
| LIB | -66 | -0.40% | 0.84% | -0.01% |
| Other | -257 | -0.64% | 2.06% | -0.02% |
| Total not D or R | 40.21% | -0.16% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
Clark County
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 1,557 | 0.34% | 33.19% | -0.05% |
| R | 4,353 | 1.27% | 25.09% | 0.19% |
| NP | 976 | 0.20% | 34.53% | -0.10% |
| IAP | -66 | -0.11% | 4.20% | -0.02% |
| LIB | -37 | -0.36% | 0.74% | -0.01% |
| Other | -148 | -0.47% | 2.25% | -0.02% |
| Total not D or R | 41.73% | -0.15% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
Washoe County
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 103 | 0.11% | 30.46% | -0.03% |
| R | 967 | 0.94% | 32.45% | 0.23% |
| NP | -233 | -0.25% | 29.35% | -0.14% |
| IAP | -53 | -0.35% | 4.67% | -0.03% |
| LIB | -16 | -0.44% | 1.14% | -0.01% |
| Other | -71 | -1.15% | 1.92% | -0.03% |
| Total not D or R | 37.09% | -0.21 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
Rural Counties (See rural county table below district tables)
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 97 | 0.25% | 17.00% | -0.09% |
| R | 1,429 | 1.34% | 47.59% | 0.27% |
| NP | 306 | 0.47% | 28.49% | -0.08% |
| IAP | -57 | -0.52% | 4.81% | -0.06% |
| LIB | -13 | -0.54% | 1.04% | -0.01% |
| Other | -38 | -1.54% | 1.07% | -0.02% |
| Total not D or R | 35.40% | -0.17% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
18 – 34 Year Old
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 223 | 0.15% | 28.40% | -0.10% |
| R | 1,335 | 1.50% | 16.71% | 0.17% |
| NP | 1,136 | 0.45% | 46.91% | -0.02% |
| IAP | 89 | 0.39% | 4.22% | 0.00% |
| LIB | -30 | -0.44% | 1.25% | -0.01% |
| Other | -96 | -0.70% | 2.51% | -0.03% |
| Total not D or R | 54.89% | -0.06% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
35 – 54 Year Old
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 479 | 0.27% | 29.65% | -0.07% |
| R | 2,084 | 1.28% | 27.37% | 0.21% |
| NP | 637 | 0.31% | 34.66% | -0.07% |
| IAP | -24 | -0.09% | 4.63% | -0.03% |
| LIB | -15 | -0.23% | 1.05% | -0.01% |
| Other | -50 | -0.31% | 2.63% | -0.02% |
| Total not D or R | 42.97% | -0.13% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
55+
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 1,084 | 0.41% | 33.40% | -0.01% |
| R | 3,354 | 1.12% | 38.59% | 0.26% |
| NP | -662 | -0.38% | 22.07% | -0.18% |
| IAP | -234 | -0.70% | 4.24% | -0.05% |
| LIB | -20 | -0.63% | 0.40% | 0.00% |
| Other | -104 | -1.01% | 1.30% | -0.02% |
| Total not D or R | 28.00% | -0.25% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
By district voter share changes.
Congressional Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| NP | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| IAP | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| LIB | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Not D or R | 4 | 0 | 0 |
In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party exceeds the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
In three (75%) of the districts the percentage of voters not registered as Democratic or Republican is the leading group of voters.
NP holds the top share in CD1 and CD3.
State Senate Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 0 | 21 | 0 |
| NP | 17 | 2 | 2 |
| IAP | 18 | 1 | 2 |
| LIB | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| Other | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Not D or R | 21 | 0 | 0 |
In all 21 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
In 15 (71.43%) of the 21 districts the percentage of voters not registered as Democratic or Republican is the leading group of voters.
NP holds the top share in SDs 2,5,7,8,9,10,11,12
State Assembly Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 37 | 3 | 2 |
| Republican | 1 | 41 | 0 |
| NP | 37 | 4 | 1 |
| IAP | 36 | 2 | 4 |
| LIB | 22 | 1 | 19 |
| Other | 40 | 1 | 1 |
| Not D or R | 38 | 3 | 1 |
In all 42 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
In 31 (73.81%) of the 42 districts the percentage of voters not registered as Democratic or Republican is the leading group of voters. NP holds the top share in ADs 5,8,9,15,16,18,21,29,35,41, and 42
Rural Counties
| Party | # Counties Lose Voter Share | # Counties Gain Voter Share | # Counties No Change |
| Democratic | 14 | 1 | 0 |
| Republican | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| NP | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| IAP | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| LIB | 14 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 13 | 1 | 1 |
| Not D or R | 9 | 6 | 0 |
The average voter share of those not registered to either the Democratic or Republican
Combine NP / minor party is the largest group in Carson City
Party increased in the 15 rural counties is now 32.47 percent.
The questions now becomes will the Republican gains hold leading up to the general election in November (not the normal trend) and will the Democratic Party pick up any voter share with same day registration at the primary.