By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform
With nearly 79,000 new active voters (including some of the approximately 14,000 who registered same day at the polls), October voter registration numbers show nothing new when it comes to voter share trends.
While the Democratic Party continues to lose voter share across the board, the Republican Party registered two bright spots, a gain in voter share in Clark County and among voters 18 to 34 years of age. Outside a near corresponding drop in Non-Partisan voter share in the 18 to 34-year-old group, Non-Partisan and minor parties continue their advance. Again, just how many Independent American Party and “other” with no party indicated should be added to the Non-Partisan total is an unanswered question but the informed assumption is many.
Another interesting occurrence is the continued Democratic Party loss of voter share in all Congressional and state legislative districts. With only one state senate district and three state assembly districts falling outside our five-percent difference between major party and non-major party voter share, will this have any impact on the upcoming legislative session even if the Democratic Party maintains its super-majority in the assembly and adds the senate?
State-Wide
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 24,608 | 3.76% | 37.30% | -0.28% |
| R | 25,651 | 4.53% | 32.50% | 0.00% |
| NP | 21,510 | 5.26% | 23.64% | 0.16% |
| IAP | 4,932 | 6.38% | 4.52% | 0.08% |
| LIB | 766 | 4.49% | 0.98% | 0.00% |
| Other | 1,412 | 7.86% | 1.06% | 0.03% |
| Total not D or R | 30.20% | 0.27 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others.
The large increase is due to a change in how voters who do not
indicate a minor party are counted. Prior to August they were counted
as Non-Partisan.
Clark County
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 20,123 | 3.99% | 40.58% | -0.36% |
| R | 18,893 | 5.38% | 28.62% | 0.13% |
| NP | 16,133 | 5.38% | 24.47% | 0.11% |
| IAP | 3,838 | 7.33% | 4.35% | 0.10% |
| LIB | 476 | 4.35% | 0.88% | 0.00% |
| Other | 979 | 7.46% | 1.09% | 0.03% |
| Total not D or R | 30.80% | 0.24 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others.
The large increase is due to a change in how voters who do not
indicate a minor party are counted. Prior to August they were counted
as Non-Partisan
Washoe County
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 3,523 | 3.40% | 35.07% | -0.13% |
| R | 3,345 | 3.19% | 35.32% | -0.20% |
| NP | 3,201 | 4.85% | 22.60% | 0.23% |
| IAP | 662 | 4.99% | 4.55% | 0.05% |
| LIB | 188 | 5.09% | 1.27% | 0.02% |
| Other | 210 | 6.12% | 1.19% | 0.03% |
| Total not D or R | 29.61% | 0.33 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others.
The large increase is due to a change in how voters who do not
indicate a minor party are counted. Prior to August they were counted
as Non-Partisan
Rural Counties
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 962 | 2.05% | 21.39% | -0.28% |
| R | 3,413 | 3.08% | 51.02% | -0.15% |
| NP | 2,176 | 5.03% | 20.31% | 0.32% |
| IAP | 432 | 3.70% | 5.42% | 0.02% |
| LIB | 102 | 4.19% | 1.14% | 0.01% |
| Other | 223 | 15.89% | 0.73% | 0.08% |
| Total not D or R | 27.59% | 0.43 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others.
The large increase is due to a change in how voters who do not
indicate a minor party are counted. Prior to August they were counted
as Non-Partisan
18 – 34 Year Old
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 11,465 | 6.22% | 38.32% | -0.23% |
| R | 8,334 | 8.20% | 21.54% | 0.27% |
| NP | 9,975 | 6.43% | 32.30% | -0.13% |
| IAP | 2,041 | 9.17% | 4.76% | 0.10% |
| LIB | 470 | 5.96% | 1.63% | -0.01% |
| Other | 490 | 7.08% | 1.45% | 0.00% |
| Total not D or R | 40.14% | -0.04 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others.
The large increase is due to a change in how voters who do not
indicate a minor party are counted. Prior to August they were counted
as Non-Partisan
55+
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 5,887 | 2.16% | 37.73% | -0.20% |
| R | 8,159 | 2.77% | 40.96% | 0.03% |
| NP | 3,781 | 3.29% | 16.04% | 0.09% |
| IAP | 1,159 | 3.89% | 4.19% | 0.05% |
| LIB | 59 | 1.90% | 0.43% | 0.00% |
| Other | 371 | 8.22% | 0.66% | 0.03% |
| Total not D or R | 21.31% | 0.17 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others.
The large increase is due to a change in how voters who do not
indicate a minor party are counted. Prior to August they were counted
as Non-Partisan
By district voter share changes.
Congressional Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Non-Partisan | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| IAP | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| LIB | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 4 | 0 |
In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Senate Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Non-Partisan | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| IAP | 0 | 20 | 1 |
| LIB | 9 | 9 | 3 |
| Other | 0 | 19 | 2 |
In 20 districts (95.24%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Assembly Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 13 | 29 | 0 |
| Non-Partisan | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| IAP | 1 | 40 | 1 |
| LIB | 18 | 17 | 7 |
| Other | 2 | 37 | 3 |
In 39 districts (92.86%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of one district over September.
As I write this, the polls have been open for 30 minutes. How many races will be decided by Non-Partisan and minor party voters? I’ll answer that question once the votes are finalized.