By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform
With less than two months before the close of voter registration for the general election, it is becoming apparent neither the Democratic nor Republican Party control the outcome. That honor belongs to those voters registered as Non-Partisan.
An analysis of the voter registration numbers for August 2018 show both major parties losing significant voter share while Non-Partisan registered corresponding gains. The rate of growth for Non-Partisan also over-shadows that of the major parties with the Libertarian Party also showing large growth.
State-Wide
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 9,513 | 1.69 | 38.40 | -0.05 |
| R | 7,535 | 1.51 | 33.84 | -0.10 |
| NP | 8,398 | 2.70 | 21.40 | 0.18 |
| IAP | 1,272 | 1.40 | 4.39 | -0.02 |
| LIB | 360 | 2.47 | 1.00 | 0.01 |
| Other | 7 | 0.05 | 0.95 | -0.02 |
| Total not D or R | 27.74 | 0.15 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
Clark County
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 8.876 | 2.07 | 42.01 | -0.10 |
| R | 5,959 | 1.96 | 29.66 | -0.10 |
| NP | 7,469 | 3.31 | 22.33 | 0.22 |
| IAP | 1,171 | 2.00 | 4.13 | -0.02 |
| LIB | 308 | 3.33 | 0.91 | 0.01 |
| Other | 15 | 0.15 | 0.95 | -0.02 |
| Total not D or R | 28.32 | 0.19 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
Washoe County
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 682 | 0.76 | 35.22 | -0.05 |
| R | 846 | 0.88 | 37.38 | 0.00 |
| NP | 672 | 1.29 | 20.40 | 0.08 |
| IAP | 91 | 0.52 | 4.48 | -0.02 |
| LIB | 29 | 0.89 | 1.27 | 0.00 |
| Other | 2 | 0.06 | 1.25 | -0.01 |
| Total not D or R | 27.40 | 0.05 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
Rural Counties
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | -45 | -0.10 | 23.05 | -0.14 |
| R | 730 | 0.74 | 51.86 | 0.12 |
| NP | 257 | 0.76 | 17.72 | 0.05 |
| IAP | -3 | -0.03 | 5.71 | -0.03 |
| LIB | 23 | 1.09 | 1.11 | 0.01 |
| Other | -10 | -0.93 | 0.55 | 0.00 |
| Total not D or R | 25.09 | 0.03 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
18 – 34 Year Old
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 4,663 | 3.18 | 38.47 | 0.03 |
| R | 2,039 | 2.27 | 23.34 | -0.19 |
| NP | 4,435 | 3.85 | 30.35 | 0.22 |
| IAP | 728 | 2.67 | 4.60 | -0.02 |
| LIB | 236 | 3.54 | 1.75 | 0.01 |
| Other | 21 | 0.36 | 1.49 | -0.04 |
| Total not D or R | 38.19 | 0.17 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
55+
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 2,243 | 0.92 | 38.90 | -0.09 |
| R | 3,394 | 1.32 | 41.29 | 0.06 |
| NP | 1,388 | 1.52 | 14.68 | 0.05 |
| IAP | 238 | 0.80 | 4.12 | -0.01 |
| LIB | 34 | 1.22 | 0.45 | 0.00 |
| Other | -2 | -0.06 | 0.56 | -0.01 |
| Total not D or R | 19.81 | 0.03 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
By district voter share changes.
Congressional Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Non-Partisan | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| IAP | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| LIB | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Other | 4 | 0 | 0 |
CD 1and CD 2 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Senate Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 20 | 1 | 0 |
| Republican | 14 | 7 | 0 |
| Non-Partisan | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| IAP | 14 | 6 | 1 |
| LIB | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| Other | 18 | 0 | 3 |
In 15 districts (71.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.
State Assembly Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 38 | 2 | 2 |
| Republican | 26 | 16 | 0 |
| Non-Partisan | 1 | 40 | 1 |
| IAP | 26 | 12 | 4 |
| LIB | 11 | 23 | 8 |
| Other | 36 | 3 | 3 |
In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.
Monthly changes in excess of one-tenth of one percent (0.10) are significant. Changes of nearly one-quarter of one percent (0.25) are rare. Yet we see type of swings in several places through the tracked demographics. If this trend continues through to the close of voter registration in October, the outcome of key races should be interesting.