Pending Democratic Caucus Could Be Impacting Voter Registration

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

Is interest in the upcoming Democratic Party presidential caucus spurring an increase in Democratic Party voter registration? Given the across the board increases in October along with corresponding decreases for the Republican Party, one cannot help but wonder. Adding to this speculation is a slowing in Non-Partisan registrations.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 4,961 0.84% 38.23% 0.17%
R -656 -0.13% 33.37% -0.17%
NP 1,489 0.43% 22.12% 0.01%
IAP 139 0.20% 4.43% -0.01%
LIB 45 0.29% 1.01% 0.00%
Other -79 -0.61% 0.83% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.40% -0.01

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 5,888 1.32% 41.90% 0.06%
R 2,784 0.89% 29.19% -0.08%
NP 3,041 1.24% 23.00% 0.02%
IAP 630 1.41% 4.19% 0.01%
LIB 165 1.69% 0.92% 0.00%
Other 11 0.13% 0.80% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.92% 0.02

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 326 0.34% 35.10% 0.03%
R -11 -0.01% 36.53% -0.09%
NP 297 0.50% 21.45% 0.06%
IAP 79 0.63% 4.50% 0.02%
LIB 9 0.25% 1.28% 0.00%
Other -29 -0.91% 1.14% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.37% 0.07

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -1,253 -2.73% 22.63% 0.19%
R -3,429 -3.24% 51.77% 0.17%
NP -1,849 -4.87% 18.26% -0.25%
IAP -570 -4.85% 5.66% -0.08%
LIB -129 -5.42% 1.14% -0.02%
Other -61 -5.46% 0.53% -0.01%
Total not D or R     25.60% -0/36

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,857 1.17% 38.97% 0.40%
R -1,120 -1.20% 22.31% -0.30%
NP -21 -0.02% 31.15% -0.05%
IAP -65 -0.34% 4.62% -0.02%
LIB -14 -0.20% 1.73% -0.01%
Other -47 -0.93% 1.22% -0.01%
Total not D or R     38.72% -0.09

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,495 0.59% 38.37% 0.04%
R 847 0.31% 41.37% -0.07%
NP 643 0.65% 15.12% 0.03%
IAP 164 0.60% 4.17% 0.00%
LIB 13 0.43% 0.46% 0.00%
Other -16 -0.48% 0.51% 0.00%
Total not D or R     20.26% 0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 0 4 0
Republican 4 0 0
Non-Partisan 1 2 1
IAP 1 1 2
LIB 1 1 2
Other 4 0 0

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 2 18 1
Republican 19 2 0
Non-Partisan 5 14 2
IAP 4 15 2
LIB 4 9 8
Other 13 0 8

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 9 33 0
Republican 36 3 3
Non-Partisan 12 27 3
IAP 13 22 7
LIB 11 19 12
Other 27 1 14

In 35 districts (83%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

If this is a new trend, will it continue past the caucus into the June Nevada primary election? Will we see an increase in turnout? We will be watching.