By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform – November 2, 2021
Before the end of this month, the governor will call the Nevada legislature into special session to draw and approve new Congressional and state legislative districts. The looming question is how will lawmakers factor in the largest share of voters, those not registered in either the Democratic or Republican Party. Party affiliation of voters is not a formal requirement and the legality of considering the party affiliation when drawing district lines has questioned. The United States Supreme Court has left that decision to the states.
October voter registration continued to see the decline of the major party and a continued surge in the number of Non-Partisan and minor party voters. The only demographic where the voter share of non-major party voters is less than 30 percent is among voters 55 years of age and older.
To provide a better look at the challenge being faced by the legislature, a by-district voter share analysis is included below.
State-Wide
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 1,979 | 0.32% | 34.27% | -0.20% |
| R | 1,514 | 0.28% | 30.10% | -0.19% |
| NP | 9,757 | 2.02% | 27.01% | 0.30% |
| IAP | 694 | 0.86% | 4.49% | 0.00% |
| LIB | 113 | 0.66% | 0.95% | 0.00% |
| Other | 2,129 | 3.82% | 3.17% | 0.09% |
| Total not D or R | 35.62% | 0.39% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
Clark County
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 1,809 | 0.38% | 37.20% | -0.23% |
| R | 1,131 | 0.34% | 26.20% | -0.17% |
| NP | 7,357 | 2.09% | 27.94% | 0.30% |
| IAP | 525 | 0.95% | 4.33% | 0.00% |
| LIB | 88 | 0.82% | 0.84% | 0.00% |
| Other | 1,722 | 3.99% | 3.49% | 0.10% |
| Total not D or R | 36.60% | 0.40% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
Washoe County
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 299 | 0.29% | 32.83% | -0.16% |
| R | 336 | 0.32% | 32.98% | -0.15% |
| NP | 1,361 | 1.72% | 25.49% | 0.24% |
| IAP | 134 | 0.93% | 4.60% | 0.01% |
| LIB | 18 | 0.46% | 1.26% | 0.00% |
| Other | 295 | 3.41% | 2.83% | 0.07% |
| Total not D or R | 34.19% | 0.32% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
Rural Counties
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | -129 | -0.30% | 19.40% | -0.16% |
| R | 47 | 0.04% | 48.59% | -0.22% |
| NP | 1,039 | 2.00% | 23.82% | 0.35% |
| IAP | 35 | 0.30% | 5.24% | -0.01% |
| LIB | 7 | 0.28% | 1.13% | 0.00% |
| Other | 112 | 2.85% | 1.82% | 0.04% |
| Total not D or R | 32.01% | 0.38% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
18 – 34 Year Old
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 417 | 0.24% | 33.71% | -0.32% |
| R | 83 | 0.09% | 18.79% | -0.21% |
| NP | 4,449 | 2.39% | 37.23% | 0.44% |
| IAP | 187 | 0.82% | 4.49% | -0.02% |
| LIB | 27 | 0.35% | 1.51% | -0.01% |
| Other | 804 | 3.82% | 4.27% | 0.11% |
| Total not D or R | 47.50% | 0.52% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
55+
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 1,040 | 0.40% | 35.80% | -0.13% |
| R | 1,189 | 0.42% | 38.95% | -0.13% |
| NP | 2,402 | 1.79% | 18.52% | 0.19% |
| IAP | 315 | 1.00% | 4.32% | 0.01% |
| LIB | 35 | 1.10% | 0.44% | 0.00% |
| Other | 502 | 3.57% | 1.98% | 0.05% |
| Total not D or R | 25.25% | 0.25% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
With new district maps only weeks away, I am including the full by-district voter share breakout. Since one goal of redistricting is to keep districts “safe” also listed is the number of districts where either the Democratic or Republican Party has a majority (50%) along with the number of districts where the voter share is five percent or less and ten percent or less.
By district voter share changes.
Congressional Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| NP | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| IAP | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| LIB | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Other | 0 | 4 | 0 |
In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party exceeds the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
| District | D | R | NP | IAP | LIB | Other | Total Not D or R |
| 1 | 42.64% | 19.08% | 29.67% | 4.00% | 0.82% | 3.79% | 38.28% |
| 2 | 28.13% | 38.47% | 24.92% | 4.78% | 1.24% | 2.46% | 33.40% |
| 3 | 32.63% | 30.69% | 27.76% | 4.64% | 0.88% | 3.39% | 36.68% |
| 4 | 36.52% | 28.73% | 26.37% | 4.36% | 0.81% | 3.21% | 34.75% |
| Majority District | 0 | ||||||
| 5% | 1 | ||||||
| 10% | 1 |
State Senate Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| NP | 0 | 21 | 0 |
| IAP | 10 | 5 | 6 |
| LIB | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| Other | 0 | 21 | 0 |
In all 21 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
| District | D | R | NP | IAP | LIB | Other | Total Not D or R |
| 1 | 42.35% | 22.05% | 27.10% | 4.03% | 0.77% | 3.70% | 35.60% |
| 2 | 48.46% | 11.65% | 31.68% | 3.55% | 0.67% | 4.00% | 39.90% |
| 3 | 42.40% | 19.88% | 29.08% | 3.95% | 0.84% | 3.85% | 37.72% |
| 4 | 50.85% | 13.36% | 27.89% | 3.45% | 0.61% | 3.84% | 35.79% |
| 5 | 34.60% | 29.44% | 27.16% | 4.67% | 0.93% | 3.21% | 35.96% |
| 6 | 36.79% | 29.45% | 25.46% | 4.33% | 0.83% | 3.13% | 33.75% |
| 7 | 40.18% | 21.76% | 29.14% | 4.21% | 0.91% | 3.80% | 38.06% |
| 8 | 33.69% | 30.90% | 26.73% | 4.52% | 0.89% | 3.27% | 35.41% |
| 9 | 34.05% | 27.02% | 29.73% | 4.44% | 0.87% | 3.90% | 38.93% |
| 10 | 42.35% | 17.45% | 31.17% | 4.32% | 0.96% | 3.74% | 40.19% |
| 11 | 38.26% | 22.25% | 30.54% | 4.13% | 0.83% | 3.99% | 39.49% |
| 12 | 27.60% | 38.13% | 25.91% | 5.05% | 0.80% | 2.50% | 34.27% |
| 13 | 38.63% | 23.44% | 28.88% | 4.54% | 1.30% | 3.22% | 37.94% |
| 14 | 26.03% | 41.42% | 24.16% | 4.74% | 1.20% | 2.45% | 32.55% |
| 15 | 34.00% | 32.74% | 24.69% | 4.54% | 1.23% | 2.81% | 33.26% |
| 16 | 28.37% | 39.02% | 24.24% | 4.85% | 1.26% | 2.28% | 32.62% |
| 17 | 18.68% | 49.67% | 23.42% | 5.19% | 1.22% | 1.84% | 31.65% |
| 18 | 31.34% | 34.61% | 25.36% | 4.73% | 0.95% | 3.01% | 34.05% |
| 19 | 19.34% | 47.37% | 24.71% | 5.26% | 0.99% | 2.33% | 33.28% |
| 20 | 32.20% | 31.03% | 27.71% | 4.69% | 0.89% | 3.48% | 36.77% |
| 21 | 41.09% | 22.66% | 28.16% | 3.81% | 0.67% | 3.61% | 36.25% |
| Majority District | 1 | ||||||
| 5% | 5 | ||||||
| 10% | 2 |
State Assembly Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| NP | 0 | 42 | 0 |
| IAP | 18 | 18 | 6 |
| LIB | 14 | 8 | 20 |
| Other | 1 | 41 | 0 |
In all 42 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
| District | D | R | NP | IAP | LIB | Other | Total Not D or R |
| 1 | 40.47% | 24.85% | 26.15% | 4.25% | 0.78% | 3.50% | 34.68% |
| 2 | 31.52% | 33.40% | 26.42% | 4.67% | 0.87% | 3.11% | 35.08% |
| 3 | 43.00% | 19.62% | 28.94% | 3.88% | 0.85% | 3.71% | 37.38% |
| 4 | 32.86% | 32.19% | 26.00% | 4.70% | 0.98% | 3.26% | 34.95% |
| 5 | 36.19% | 28.02% | 27.08% | 4.35% | 0.90% | 3.45% | 35.79% |
| 6 | 53.99% | 9.24% | 28.75% | 3.34% | 0.60% | 4.07% | 36.77% |
| 7 | 48.32% | 16.68% | 27.21% | 3.53% | 0.61% | 3.65% | 35.00% |
| 8 | 37.06% | 23.26% | 30.69% | 4.17% | 0.83% | 3.99% | 39.68% |
| 9 | 34.68% | 26.50% | 29.62% | 4.39% | 0.86% | 3.95% | 38.82% |
| 10 | 41.76% | 20.16% | 29.22% | 4.02% | 0.84% | 4.00% | 38.08% |
| 11 | 48.74% | 11.11% | 31.94% | 3.67% | 0.71% | 3.83% | 40.15% |
| 12 | 38.05% | 26.84% | 27.05% | 3.92% | 0.68% | 3.46% | 35.11% |
| 13 | 29.62% | 37.35% | 24.62% | 4.76% | 0.92% | 2.73% | 33.03% |
| 14 | 46.03% | 15.86% | 29.96% | 3.63% | 0.67% | 3.85% | 38.11% |
| 15 | 44.29% | 17.84% | 29.39% | 4.23% | 0.84% | 3.40% | 37.87% |
| 16 | 40.31% | 17.05% | 33.04% | 4.42% | 1.08% | 4.10% | 42.64% |
| 17 | 44.27% | 19.20% | 28.06% | 3.81% | 0.76% | 3.90% | 36.53% |
| 18 | 40.83% | 20.38% | 29.98% | 4.12% | 0.85% | 3.84% | 38.79% |
| 19 | 28.45% | 36.04% | 27.28% | 4.80% | 0.75% | 2.67% | 35.51% |
| 20 | 39.49% | 23.23% | 28.24% | 4.31% | 0.97% | 3.77% | 37.28% |
| 21 | 35.20% | 28.88% | 27.06% | 4.75% | 0.90% | 3.22% | 35.92% |
| 22 | 30.26% | 35.11% | 26.00% | 4.82% | 0.84% | 2.97% | 34.63% |
| 23 | 26.94% | 39.74% | 24.86% | 5.24% | 0.84% | 2.38% | 33.32% |
| 24 | 41.15% | 19.80% | 30.10% | 4.38% | 1.36% | 3.21% | 39.04% |
| 25 | 31.88% | 37.16% | 22.75% | 4.49% | 1.16% | 2.57% | 30.96% |
| 26 | 29.26% | 37.96% | 24.37% | 4.66% | 1.27% | 2.49% | 32.78% |
| 27 | 36.64% | 27.25% | 27.09% | 4.59% | 1.32% | 3.11% | 36.11% |
| 28 | 48.20% | 12.14% | 31.44% | 3.45% | 0.63% | 4.15% | 39.67% |
| 29 | 34.10% | 29.91% | 27.24% | 4.60% | 0.95% | 3.20% | 36.00% |
| 30 | 36.26% | 26.84% | 27.74% | 4.68% | 1.24% | 3.23% | 36.90% |
| 31 | 31.08% | 34.92% | 25.02% | 4.80% | 1.29% | 2.89% | 34.01% |
| 32 | 20.20% | 48.93% | 23.17% | 4.68% | 1.09% | 1.94% | 30.87% |
| 33 | 14.07% | 54.51% | 23.87% | 5.03% | 0.99% | 1.52% | 31.41% |
| 34 | 38.89% | 25.29% | 27.12% | 4.25% | 0.93% | 3.51% | 35.82% |
| 35 | 33.46% | 27.51% | 29.82% | 4.48% | 0.88% | 3.85% | 39.03% |
| 36 | 22.76% | 42.75% | 25.25% | 5.40% | 0.99% | 2.85% | 34.49% |
| 37 | 34.93% | 33.15% | 23.98% | 4.40% | 0.74% | 2.79% | 31.92% |
| 38 | 16.41% | 48.80% | 26.01% | 5.59% | 1.27% | 1.92% | 34.80% |
| 39 | 20.54% | 50.39% | 21.29% | 4.85% | 1.17% | 1.76% | 29.08% |
| 40 | 27.26% | 40.33% | 24.07% | 5.08% | 1.24% | 2.01% | 32.41% |
| 41 | 34.11% | 27.01% | 29.40% | 4.56% | 0.95% | 3.97% | 38.88% |
| 42 | 39.86% | 20.91% | 30.33% | 4.09% | 0.82% | 3.99% | 39.23% |
| Majority District | 3 | ||||||
| 5% | 6 | ||||||
| 10% | 4 |
Adding to the challenge faced by legislators is that by the time of the general election in November of next year, the gap between those not affiliated with either of the major parties will most likely be significantly larger, placing the outcome of potentially many races in the hands of those voters. We should know the answers very soon.