By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform
Early voting has started for the primary elections but voter registration for May, leading up to the election, showed both the Democratic and Republican Party lose voter share. For the Democratic Party the only bright spot was among those 18 to 34 years of age when voter share stayed flat. The GOP fared slightly better picking up share in the rural counties and among those 55 and older. This corresponds to the only areas where Non-Partisan registration lost voter share. The Independent American Party gained share in Clark County and among those 18 to 34, but some of that gain was most likely voters who meant to register as “independent” (Non-Partisan). The Libertarian Party did slightly better, gaining share in both Clark and Washoe County, losing slightly state-wide, and remaining flat elsewhere. These trends also show across state senate and assembly districts. While all registration groups gained raw number of voters (except in the rural counties), Non-Partisan and minor parties grew at a greater percentage.
State-Wide
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 5,631 | 1.03 | 38.37 | -0.01 |
| R | 4,359 | 0.90 | 34.01 | -0.05 |
| NP | 4,124 | 1.37 | 21.22 | 0.07 |
| IAP | 920 | 1.07 | 4.45 | 0.00 |
| LIB | 218 | 1.55 | 0.99 | 0.00 |
| Other | 21 | 0.15 | 0.97 | -0.01 |
| Total not D or R | 27.63 | 0.06 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
Clark County
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 5,620 | 1.36 | 42.06 | -0.03 |
| R | 3,486 | 1.19 | 29.78 | -0.07 |
| NP | 3,902 | 1.80 | 22.14 | 0.08 |
| IAP | 1,029 | 1.85 | 4.17 | 0.02 |
| LIB | 176 | 2.01 | 0.90 | 0.01 |
| Other | 99 | 1.05 | 0.96 | 0.00 |
| Total not D or R | 28.17 | 0.11 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
Washoe County
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 665 | 0.74 | 35.16 | -0.02 |
| R | 683 | 0.71 | 37.47 | -0.03 |
| NP | 571 | 1.10 | 20.28 | 0.06 |
| IAP | 102 | 0.66 | 4.53 | -0.01 |
| LIB | 56 | 1.73 | 1.28 | 0.01 |
| Other | -31 | -0.92 | 1.29 | -0.02 |
| Total not D or R | 27.38 | 0.04 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
Rural Counties
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | -654 | -1.47 | 23.27 | -0.22 |
| R | 190 | 0.20 | 51.61 | 0.38 |
| NP | -349 | -1.04 | 17.68 | -0.09 |
| IAP | -211 | -1.36 | 5.78 | -0.05 |
| LIB | -14 | -0.67 | 1.10 | 0.00 |
| Other | -47 | -4.23 | 0.56 | -0.02 |
| Total not D or R | 25.12 | -0.16 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
18 – 34 Year Old
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 2,749 | 1.97 | 38.31 | 0.00 |
| R | 1,232 | 1.42 | 23.71 | -0.13 |
| NP | 2,623 | 2.40 | 30.08 | 0.13 |
| IAP | 550 | 2.31 | 4.63 | 0.02 |
| LIB | 131 | 2.06 | 1.74 | 0.00 |
| Other | 31 | 0.55 | 1.54 | -0.02 |
| Total not D or R | 37.99 | 0.13 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
55+
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 1,364 | 0.57 | 38.96 | -0.02 |
| R | 2,100 | 0.84 | 41.11 | 0.09 |
| NP | 241 | 0.92 | 14.74 | -0.05 |
| IAP | 81 | 0.36 | 4.19 | -0.01 |
| LIB | 6 | 0.22 | 0.45 | 0.00 |
| Other | -18 | -0.53 | 0.55 | -0.01 |
| Total not D or R | 19.93 | -0.07 |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others
By district voter share changes.
Congressional Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Non-Partisan | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| IAP | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| LIB | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Other | 3 | 0 | 1 |
CD 1and CD 2 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Senate Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 17 | 4 | 0 |
| Republican | 15 | 5 | 1 |
| Non-Partisan | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| IAP | 10 | 10 | 1 |
| LIB | 2 | 9 | 10 |
| Other | 14 | 3 | 4 |
In 15 districts (71.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from April.
State Assembly Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 32 | 9 | 1 |
| Republican | 25 | 16 | 1 |
| Non-Partisan | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| IAP | 17 | 21 | 4 |
| LIB | 9 | 20 | 13 |
| Other | 29 | 5 | 8 |
In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is a decrease of one from March.
Since Nevada has closed primary elections, both the Democratic and Republican Parties stress that unless you register to vote as a party member you will not be able to vote in the key nominating races. This usually leads to slight increases in voter share the month before the primary election. The fact that this did not happen in May could be a further indicator that voters are tired of the hyper-partisan political environment and are resigned to “settling between the lesser of two evils” in November
Nationally, partisan politicians don’t seem to be the least bit aware, or perhaps unconcerned given their comfort levels with election outcomes due to their gerrymandering and poor voter turnout.
Is there any sense of awareness of their losses in the state legislature?
Bob,
Legislators are aware of the growing number of Non-Partisan voters. Those in districts where registration is close are aware but maybe not at the analytical level. That said, the establishment wing of the Democratic Party are not concerned; they are not reaching out to the Non-Partisans. The GOP not only sees the trends but are reaching out knowing full well those are the voters who will determine the outcome of the general election.
Bob,
The reply is from me, Doug. Harold is working on my website. I don’t know why it shows him rather than me when I log in.