By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform
It’s time to ask the question; how long will the major political parties remain the dominant political parties in Nevada? If the continuing voter registration trends continue (they show no indication of slowing), it will not be much longer. May 2021 figures are no surprise. I’ve annotated just where we are below each table.
State-Wide
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | -96 | -0.01% | 35.55% | -0.23% |
| R | -475 | -0.08% | 31.05% | -0.22% |
| NP | 8,135 | 1.79% | 25.43% | 0.29% |
| IAP | 344 | 0.42% | 4.54% | -0.01% |
| LIB | 94 | 0.53% | 0.97% | 0.00% |
| Other | 3,216 | 7.75% | 2.45% | 0.16% |
| Total not D or R | 33.40% | 0.44% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
The combined voter share of those not registered to vote in either the Democratic or Republican Party is #2 in the state, over two (2) percent greater share than the GOP and just two (2) percent shy of the Democratic Party.
Clark County
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 260 | 0.05% | 38.55% | -0.27% |
| R | 109 | 0.03% | 27.24% | -0.20% |
| NP | 6,403 | 1.92% | 26.27% | 0.30% |
| IAP | 343 | 0.61% | 4.39% | -0.01% |
| LIB | 75 | 0.67% | 0.87% | 0.00% |
| Other | 2,539 | 7.96% | 2.67% | 0.18% |
| Total not D or R | 34.20% | 0.47% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
The combined voter share of those not registered to vote in either the Democratic or Republican Party exceeds Republican Party voter share by almost seven (7) percent. Non-Partisan voter share is less than one (1) percent from overtaking the GOP.
Washoe County
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | -155 | -0.14% | 33.71% | -0.17% |
| R | -129 | -0.12% | 33.74% | -0.16% |
| NP | 928 | 1.21% | 24.39% | 0.20% |
| IAP | 43 | 0.29% | 4.62% | 0.00% |
| LIB | 16 | 0.39% | 1.29% | 0.00% |
| Other | 465 | 6.95% | 2.24% | 0.14% |
| Total not D or R | 32.54% | 0.34% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
While the two major parties are still #1 and #2, the combined total of those not registered to vote in either the Democratic or Republican Party is just over one (1) percent away from taking over the #1 or #2 position.
Rural Counties
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | -201 | -2.63% | 20.21% | -0.12% |
| R | -455 | -1.90% | 50.00% | -0.29% |
| NP | 804 | -1.12% | 21.85% | 0.34% |
| IAP | -42 | -2.30% | 5.35% | -0.03% |
| LIB | 3 | -3.41% | 1.13% | 0.00% |
| Other | 212 | 7.04% | 1.46% | 0.10% |
| Total not D or R | 29.79% | 0.41% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
Non-Partisan voter share is in the #2 spot exceeding Democratic Party voter share by almost two (2) percent. The combined voter share of those not registered to vote in either the Democratic or Republican Party exceeds Democratic Party voter share by almost 10 percent.
18 – 34 Year Old
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | -462 | -0.25% | 35.80% | -0.37% |
| R | -500 | -0.48% | 20.07% | -0.25% |
| NP | 3,583 | 2.05% | 34.63% | 0.44% |
| IAP | 59 | 0.25% | 4.63% | -0.02% |
| LIB | 27 | 0.33% | 1.58% | -0.01% |
| Other | 1,220 | 7.77% | 3.29% | 0.21% |
| Total not D or R | 44.13% | 0.62% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
The combined voter share of those not registered to vote in either the Democratic or Republican Party is solidly in the #1 position by over eight (8) percent over the Democratic Party and 14 percent over the Republican Party. Non-Partisan voter share on its own exceeds GOP voter share by just under 15 percent and is just over one (1) percent away from taking the lead from the Democratic Party.
55+
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 371 | 0.14% | 36.56% | -0.14% |
| R | 318 | 0.11% | 39.68% | -0.16% |
| NP | 2,099 | 1.66% | 17.46% | 0.20% |
| IAP | 153 | 0.49% | 4.31% | 0.00% |
| LIB | 18 | 0.56% | 0.44% | 0.00% |
| Other | 772 | 7.28% | 1.55% | 0.10% |
| Total not D or R | 23.75% | 0.30% |
Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.
This is the one demographic where the Democratic and Republican Party are in no jeopardy of losing their dominance. That said, this age group has followed the trend with the major parties losing voter share with corresponding gain by Non-Partisan and minor parties.
By district voter share changes.
Congressional Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| NP | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| IAP | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| LIB | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Other | 0 | 4 | 0 |
In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party exceeds the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. Non-Partisan exceeds the Republican Party in one (1) district; the combined total exceeds both major parties in one (1) district, the Republican Party in one (1) district and the Democratic Party in one (1) district.
State Senate Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| NP | 0 | 21 | 0 |
| IAP | 11 | 2 | 8 |
| LIB | 6 | 3 | 12 |
| Other | 0 | 21 | 0 |
In all 21 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. Non-Partisan exceeds the Republican Party in 10 districts and the Democratic Party in two (2) districts. The combined total exceeds the Republican Party in two (2) districts and the Democratic Party in three (3) districts.
State Assembly Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| NP | 0 | 42 | 0 |
| IAP | 22 | 12 | 8 |
| LIB | 9 | 7 | 26 |
| Other | 0 | 42 | 0 |
In all 42 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. Non-Partisan exceeds the Republican Party in 17 districts and the Democratic Party in three (3) districts. The combined total exceeds the Republican Party in nine (9) districts and the Democratic Party in 10 districts.
The Nevada legislature just passed Assembly Bill (AB) 126 to replace the Party-run presidential nominating caucuses with a state-run closed partisan primary. One of the stated advantages was that more people would participate in the process. But given the voter registration trend, just how many voters will be eligible?
Regarding AB126, some voters will switch to a party in order to vote in the primary as has been shown by other states with closed primaries. It is easy to do that online or via the same-day registration process.
Jim,
Thanks for your comment. Data has shown that this is not the normal case in NV. Few voters switch. The frustration with the major parties runs deep. We’ll have to see.
It will be interesting to see. Some of that ‘non-switching’ may’ve been due to NV having caucuses and people not wanting to bother with that. But I don’t know what the data shows for when NV used to have primaries….but we are also living in a different time from when NV last had primaries.
Jim,
The data I refer to is from our state closed primaries in June. So yes, it will be interesting if the presidential race impacts registration.
Doug Goodman
I see. Thanks for clarifying Doug . It seems much more likely some will switch for a presidential primary than for the June state primary. This is likely especially to be the case if NV remains one of the first states to select candidates (when voters get motivated behind a larger number of candidates than further on down the calendar). Anecdotally, I have family that do just that in AZ which is further down the calendar.
However, those voters will need to be proactive to switch in enough time to get a mail ballot or vote in person.