Democratic Party Loses Voter Share Across the Board; Non-Partisan and Minor Parties Gain

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

For the second consecutive month, the Democratic Party in August lost substantial voter share across all tracked demographics and in all Congressional, state senate, and state assembly districts. The Republican Party fared slightly better losing share at a lower rate while recording slight increases in Clark County and among voters 18 to 24 years of age. Non-Partisan experienced gains comparable to Democratic loses. The big surprise was the gain by the smaller minor parties; double digit increases in raw number of voters and gain in voter share in all Congressional, state senate, and state assembly districts.

Non-Partisan voters now top 23 percent statewide while voters not registered as either Democratic or Republican close in on 30 percent (just under 40 percent for voters 18 to 34 years of age). Also remember, it is an accepted assumption that more than one-half of those registered in the Independent American Party (IAP) are really Non-Partisans who thought they were registering as independents not in a highly conservative party.

State-Wide

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D9,2741.47%38.02%-0.29%
R11,4412.13%32.58%-0.03%
NP11,7463.10%23.19%0.19%
IAP1,9332.68%4.40%0.02%
LIB3201.99%0.97%0.00%
Other2,13217.70%0.84%0.11%
Total not D or R  29.40%0.32

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D7,9981.65%41.45%-0.34%
R8,3862.54%28.53%0.02%
NP8,8733.20%24.09%0.17%
IAP1,4713.04%4.20%0.02%
LIB2212.15%0.88%0.00%
Other1,72020.93%0.84%0.13%
Total not D or R  30.01%0.32

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D1,1911.18%35.52%-0.26%
R1,6831.67%35.74%-0.09%
NP1,8493.03%21.96%0.24%
IAP3342.68%4.47%0.03%
LIB702.00%1.24%0.00%
Other2629.26%1.08%0.07%
Total not D or R  28.75%0.34

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D850.18%21.99%-0.26%
R1,3721.30%51.20%-0.03%
NP1,0242.54%19.73%0.23%
IAP1281.14%5.41%-0.01%
LIB291.25%1.12%0.00%
Other15014.99%0.55%0.07%
Total not D or R  26.81%0.29

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D3,0741.76%39.14%-0.41%
R2,8343.03%21.20%0.04%
NP4,7903.38%32.22%0.17%
IAP6673.29%4.60%0.02%
LIB1862.57%1.64%0.00%
Other94420.93%1.20%0.18%
Total not D or R  39.66%0.37

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D3,3411.26%38.18%-0.14%
R4,2881.51%40.99%-0.05%
NP2,6192.42%15.76%0.12%
IAP6042.13%4.12%0.02%
LIB331.10%0.43%0.00%
Other46814.67%0.52%0.06%
Total not D or R  20.83%0.20

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic400
Republican211
Non-Partisan040
IAP040
LIB103
Other040

In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic2100
Republican1191
Non-Partisan0210
IAP3180
LIB957
Other0210

In 19 districts (90.48%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is a gain of one over July

State Assembly Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic4200
Republican23181
Non-Partisan1410
IAP5334
LIB171411
Other0420

In 37 districts (88.10%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of one district over July and two from June.

With early voting starting in just over six weeks, what this will mean for candidates will be worth watching.

3 Replies to “Democratic Party Loses Voter Share Across the Board; Non-Partisan and Minor Parties Gain”

  1. Hi Doug:
    Thanks for the monthly update. I’m surprised that the Democrats continue to lose ground in northern Nevada.

    Clint Koble

    1. I believe it is because of the party’s refusal to either acknowledge the progressive wing of the party or embrace Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, both of which are highly popular among voters, especially young voters.

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