Category: Voter Registration Trends

With the first GOP presidential primary debates only days away, how will the campaign landscape impact voter registration? If the just released July, 2015 numbers from the Nevada Secretary of State’s office are any indication, the trend of voters leaving the two major political parties will continue.

Nevada’s active voter rolls increased by 8,098 over June, 2015. However, while all categories showed an increase in raw numbers, only Non-Partisan increased its percentage share. Of the 8,098 new voters, 37.2 percent chose not to affiliate with either the Democratic or Republican Party. (29.4% Non-Partisan / 7.8% minor parties) That number is greater than either the percentage who registered as Democratic (33.4%) or Republican (29.7%).

In Clark County, the increase in Non-Partisan registration far out-paced that of either of the two major parties; 1.11 percent versus 0.65 Democratic and 0.77 GOP. Non-Partisans now compose over 20 percent of Clark County active registered voters. Adding in minor party registrations, over 26 percent of active voters in Clark County choose not to affiliate with either major party.

Registration numbers in Washoe County show an even greater increase of Non-Partisan versus major party registration; 0.78 percent Non-Partisan, 0.4 percent Democratic, 0.3 percent Republican. 26.5 percent of active Washoe County voters (19% Non-Partisan, 7.5% minor party) now choose not to affiliate with the major parties.

A new demographic I’ll start tracking is the trend in the rural counties. Since January, 2015, growth of voters registered as Non-Partisan or to a minor political party is quadruple that of the Democratic or Republican party. Over this period Non-Partisan registration increased 2.9 percent and now represents 17 percent of the rural voter registration. Minor party registration also increased 2.5 percent. The Democratic party lost four voters and the GOP increased only 0.57 percent. Just under 25 percent of rural voters do not affiliate with either major party.

In the 18 – 34 year old demographic, the month over month increase of active voters registered as Non-Partisan or in a minor party doubled the growth of either the Democratic and Republican party; 1.8 percent (1.18% Non-Partisan, 0.62% minor party) as compared to 0.81 and 0.92 respectively. Just under 30 percent of voters in this group are now registered as Non-Partisan and the total not affiliating with either major party is approaching 40 percent.

Similar growth was also recorded in the 55 and over age group. Non-Partisan registration grew by 0.88 percent. Minor party registration in this age group increased 0.85 percent. Comparatively, Democratic registration increased by only 0.54 percent and GOP registration by only 0.6 percent. 19.2 percent of voters in this group, almost 44 percent of all active voters in Nevada do not affiliate with either of the two major political parties.

As the 2016 campaigns shift to high gear and voters’ interest increases, it will be interesting to see if voters continue to distance themselves from the two major political parties. Check back each month to find out. 

Increases in voter registrations as Non-Partisan or as members of a minor political party continue to outpace increases of both the Republican and Democratic parties. For the month of June, 2015, data just released by the Nevada Secretary of State’s office show the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan increased 1.02 percent over May, 2015. The number of voters registered to one of the minor political parties also increased by 0.78 percent. For the same time period, Democratic Party registration only grew 0.47 percent and registration in the GOP increased only 0.55 percent. As a percent of total registered voters both the Democratic and Republican parties decreased while Non-Partisan and minor parties increased their share of registered voters. Over 26 percent of active voters in Nevada now choose not to affiliate with a major political party.

This trend is not only present in the state-wide numbers. In Clark County Non-Partisan registration increased by 1.09 percent and minor parties 0.76 percent while Democratic and Republican party registration grew by only 0.51 and 0.71 percent respectively.

Washoe County also saw similar numbers. Non-Partisan, + 1.02, minor parties +0.94, Democratic Party +0.49, GOP +0.40.

In the 18 – 34 year old demographic, active voters registered as Non-Partisan or in a minor party continue to outnumber both the Democratic and Republican parties; 37.6 percent compared to 33.7 Democratic and 25.1 Republican. Non-Partisan registration increased 1.13 percent compared to 0.64 for Democrats and 1.08 for Republicans.

Similar growth was also recorded in the 55 and over age group. Non-Partisan registration grew by 0.76 percent. Minor party registration in this age group increased 0.88 percent. Comparatively, Democratic registration increased by only 0.41 percent and GOP registration by only 0.49 percent. 19.2 percent of voters in this group, almost 44 percent of all active voters in Nevada do not affiliate with either of the two major political parties.

Nevada voters continue to be disillusioned with both the Democratic and Republican parties. I highly doubt this trend will change.

I am currently laying the groundwork to bring the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act (NEMRA) back to legislators with the hope of having it introduced again in the 2017 legislative session. I am convinced voters want lawmakers to collaborate and find the best solutions for problems facing our state and nation without regard for partisanship. I am convinced voters will support processes that encourage lawmakers to achieve that goal.  

The Nevada Secretary of State’s office released the voter registration totals for May on June 2^, 2015. The 78^th regular session of the Nevada legislature was three-quarters through a session full of partisan bickering and a split GOP caucus. Party-line or near party-line votes appeared to be the rule rather than the exception in both committee and on the floor. (I’ll be posting a detailed analysis of this in the next few months)  Did the Partisanship of the Nevada Legislative Session Impact Voter Registration?

Due to registration rolls maintenance, Washoe County lost 16,575 voters, or 7.09%. In spite of this, the overall statewide numbers remained virtually unchanged, +306. Of the 1.193million active registered voters, 25.91% still choose not to associate with either of the two major political parties. This was an increase of 0.03% over April.

In Clark County all categories showed in increase in registration. This coincides with the increase of over 6,000 active registered voters. Registration as Non-Partisan saw the largest increase, 1.13%. The GOP followed with an increase of 0.77%, the Democratic Party registered an increase of 0.62% and the minor parties increased 0.42%

Among active voters 18 – 34 years of age, 23.6% of all active voters, only Non-Partisan showed an increase, 0.31%.  The GOP lost 0.11%, the Democratic Party lost 0.27%, and the minor parties lost 0.77%.  As has been the trend, 37.5% of younger voters choose not to affiliate with either major political party.

The largest and most active voters in the state are those 55 years of age and above. This group comprises 43.8% of active registered voters. 19.1% choose not to affiliate with either the Republican or Democratic Party; 13.9% are registered Non-Partisan. In May, this number increased by 0.49%, far outpacing the increases of the Democratic Party (0.08%), the GOP (0.16%), and minor parties (0.16%).

Did the Partisanship of the Nevada Legislative Session Impact Voter Registration or was May just a normal month, a continuation of the several year trend?  We are only twelve months away from the next primary election. How large a percentage of the active electorate will Non-Partisan and minor party affiliated voters encompass? How will the state deal with the issue during the 79^thsession in 2017? Will legislators agree to again consider the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act (NEMRA)? I will be working towards that end. A positive step was taken when SB 499 giving slightly more time for minor party and Non-Partisan candidates running for partisan office to file their paperwork was signed by Governor Sandoval.

There is no sign that the trend of voters leaving the two major political parties will either end or subside. NEMRA will continue provide to tool for discussion.

The Nevada Secretary of State’s office has released voter registrationstatistics for February, 2015 and voters continue to favor registration as Non-Partisan or in one of the minor parties over the Democratic or Republican Party.

The need for a change to Nevada’s election statute to address this continuous growing trend is once again justified.

The Nevada Secretary of State’s office has released voter registrationstatistics for January, 2015 and the trend of voters favoring registration as Non-Partisan or in one of the minor parties over the Democratic or Republican Party continues.

The 78^th regular session of the Nevada Legislature is under way. Voter registration trends provide the justification to act now on the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act (NEMRA).

      ** This age group experienced a 10.1% increase in registered voters (+27,339)

In addition to the interesting numbers hidden in the December 2014 voter registration totals, active voters registered as Non-Partisan outnumber active voters registered in the Republican Party in 14.3 percent of both assembly and senate districts. In no district do Non-Partisans outnumber those registered in the Democratic Party. In two assembly districts Republicans outnumber Non-Partisans by less than 100 voters.

* Difference is 166 voters resulting in 19 percent each if rounded.

In AD 15 there are 4,822 Non-Partisans compared to 4,871 Republicans, a difference of 49 voters. In AD 24, the numbers are 6,235 Non-Partisans versus 6,331 Republicans, a difference of 96.

There are eight stateswhere independent voter registration outnumbers registration for both major parties. Is Nevada poised to join this list? If the current trend continues, I believe there is no question. The Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act (NEMRA) will ensure Nevada’s elected officials truly represent the voters of the state.  

The Nevada Secretary of State’s office released voter registrationstatistics for December, 2014 on January 5, 2015.  While the overall comparison to the end of November shows the state lost only 1,828 active registered voters (0.15%). A closer look reveals some interesting developments. (Percentages are the difference between November and December 2014)

Younger voters, those 18 – 24 years old left the voting rolls in droves, -30,238 (25.6%) Of these voters

            12,239 left the Democratic Party (28.5%)

            7,045 left the Republican Party (26.1%)

            8,447 were registered as Non-Partisan (22.1%)

            2,507 left the minor parties (25.7%)

Older voters, those 65 and over replaced the younger voters, +32,849 (11.0%) Of these voters

            13,565 joined the Democratic Party (11.1%)

            12,221 joined the Republican Party (9.8%)

            5,180 registered as Non-Partisan (14.0%)

            1,883 joined one of the minor parties (13.1%)

The Republican Party lost 420 more voters than the Democratic Party; 1176 to 756 (0.28% to 0.15%)

Non-Partisan and registration in minor parties increased; 84 (0.04%) and 20 (0.03%) respectively

In Clark County all parties gained registered voters with registration as Non-Partisan and in minor parties leading the way

            Democratic Party – 963 (0.26%)

            Republican Party – 474 (0.18%)

            Non-Partisan – 975 (0.58%)

            Minor Parties – 292 (0.58%)

In Washoe County all parties lost registered voters evenly

            Democratic Party – 1706 (2.1%)

            Republican Party – 1717 (2.0%)

            Non-Partisan – 970 (2.3%)

            Minor Parties – 334 (2.0%)

Why did the younger voters depart? Were they part of the majority that did not bother to vote in November? The more important question is how do we get them to return and vote? Is the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act (NEMRA) part of the answer?

The Nevada Secretary of State’s office released voter registrationstatistics December 1^st covering the period from close of registration prior to the election; October 14^th to November 30^th. While all categories; Democratic, Republican, Non-Partisan, and other gained active voters, the only voter registration category to increase its percentage of registered voters was Non-Partisan.

The trend was the same; state-wide, Clark and Washoe Counties, and the 18 – 34 year-old demographic. In six weeks, in spite of an historic low turnout that gave control of the state government to one party, voters are still expressing their dissatisfaction with the two major political parties.

The legislature can reverse this trend of growing dissatisfaction. The legislature can demonstrate a commitment to all voters. The Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act (NEMRA) provides the means.

The Secretary of State’s office today, released the final voter registration numbers for next month’s election; early voting starts Saturday, October 18^th.  From October 1^st thru October 14^th, more voters registered as Non-Partisan (3,202) than Democratic (2,466) or Republican (2,955).

Since the close of voter registration for the November, 2012 election, the number of active voters registered as Non-Partisan jumped more than ten percent. When combined with those registered in minor parties, there was a jump of almost nine and one-half percent of voters who choose not to affiliate with either the Republican of Democratic Party.  During the same time period, Democratic registration fell by over five percent. Republican registration held fairly constant, dropping only three-tenths of one percent.

The following tables show the breakdown by state, Clark County, Washoe County, voters 18 – 34 years of age, and total not affiliated with either major party. The major political parties do not have to view these numbers pessimistically. There can be a silver lining. The voting demographic has changed. Voters are losing faith in both the Democratic and Republican Party because of the move to the extreme to please a vocal minority. The Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act (NEMRA) provides a means for the parties to recognize this changing demographic. Filing of a Bill Draft Request (BDR) will allow the 2015 session of the Nevada State Legislature to debate the pros and cons of NEMRA and show voters their preferences are being noticed.

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Will voters registered to vote as Non-Partisan reach 20 percent before voter registration for the November election closes in two weeks? Based on the voter registration statistics for September released todayby the secretary of state, that is a definite possibility.

Non-Partisans now account for 19.1 percent of active voters and 19.58 percent of total voters. When voters registered in one of the minor parties are added in, 25.45 percent of active and 26.11 percent of all voters chose not to affiliate with either of the two major parties. For 18 – 34 year old voters the numbers are almost 10 percent higher; 28.65 percent of active and 28.09 percent of total voters registered as Non-Partisan; 36.81 percent and 36.31 percent respectively not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican Party.

During this same period, both the Democratic and Republican parties held constant, with changes up or down mostly less than one-tenth of one percent. This means more new registrants are choosing Non-Partisan.

As I have pointed the major political parties can slow or reverse this trend, but to do that they have to accept this growing number of independent-minded voters. Supporting the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act (NEMRA), working for its introduction and passage in the 2015 legislative session will help them show they value the input of this rapidly growing segment of the voting population.