Category: Voter Registration Trends

Voter registration statistics for January, 2016 are in. Not surprising is that given the emphasis on the presidential caucuses and voter registration efforts by both the Democratic and Republican Parties along with their presidential candidates, the numbers show movement in their favor.

During the month of January, 2016, the state gained 15,949 voters over the previous month. The following tables show the impact.

State-Wide

Clark County

Washoe County

  

Rural Counties

18 – 34 Year Old

*NOTE – Non-Partisan registration exceeds Republican by 3.66%

55+

The above trend is similar when looking at individual state assembly and senate districts. In spite of the changes, there are still 11 (52.38%) state senate districts and 25 (59.52%) state assembly districts where the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or total not registered as either Democratic or Republican either exceeds or is within 5 percent of one of the major political parties.

Will state and local candidates be able to maintain this shift in voter registration following the caucuses up to the June primary election? Will any gains in registration equate to increased voter turnout? Only time will tell. What is certain is that the importance of the registered Non-Partisan voter cannot be ignored.

Party	Increase in # Voters	% Share of Increase
D	19,782	47.69
R	14,316	34.51
NP	7,384	17.80
Total	41,482

Party	Increase in # Voters	% Share of Increase	Change in Rate of Increase
D	15,898	37.76	-9.93
R	15,153	36.00	+1.49
NP	11,046	26.24	+8.44
Total	42,097

Party	Increase in # Voters	% Share of Increase	Change in Rate of Increase
D	33,677	36.58	-1.18
R	31,045	33.73	-2.27
NP	27,331	29.69	+3.45
Total	92,053

By all measurements, across all demographics, 2015 was not a good year for the Democratic Party in Nevada. While the Republican Party and Non-Partisan gained voter share, the Democratic Party lost share. In some areas, the loss was over one percent. Conversely, Republican gains also topped the one percent level. Minor parties also saw a loss. Figures are from December, 2014 and December, 2015 Secretary of State voter registration statistics.

 Clark County Percent Voter Share

These figures are not surprising. Monthly analyses posted on this blog have consistently shown growth of voters registered as Non-Partisan. While the monthly data has shown both the Democratic and Republican Parties losing voter share; the GOP has shown infrequent gains, recent voter file maintenance has benefited the GOP.

The Presidential Caucuses are one month away, the primary election a mere five. Will the campaigns foster interest that equates to increased partisan voter registration? I’ll be tracking. If registration in the parties increases significantly, will that result in higher primary election turn-out? We’ll know on June 14^th.

The November, 2015 voter registration figures released on December 1, 2015 by the Nevada Secretary of State’s office held a pleasant surprise for the Republican Party. A clean-up of the active voter list; a movement of 17,416 voters to the inactive rolls and a net decrease in active voters of 13,792, resulted in the GOP gaining just under 0.2% of voter share from October, 2015.

In less than three months, the Democratic and Republican Parties will hold their presidential nominating caucuses and in just short of seven months, their primaries for federal, state, and county offices. Yet according to the voter registration data released November 5, 2015 for the month of October, 2015 by the Nevada Secretary of State’s office more voters continue to register as Non-Partisan than either Democrat or Republican.

   

The Nevada Secretary of State’s office  released the voter registration numbers for September, 2015 on October 1^st and while the changes in percentage of voter share are in the low hundredths of a percent; the Democratic Party lost 0.04%, the Republican Party gained 0.01%, Non-Partisan gained 0.03%, and the minor parties’ share remained unchanged, the percent of increase in voters registered in each category is more significant. (NOTE: Registration as Non-Partisan had the largest increase in voter share)

The Nevada Secretary of State’s office  released the voter registration numbers for August, 2015 on September 1^st and while the changes are small; only 2,308 new voters joined the rolls, they continue to tell a story.

Reviewing the demographics raises an interesting question; what happened in the rural counties? Registration in the 15 rurals fell by over 6,400 voters. While all groups, Democratic, Republican, Non-Partisan, and minor parties all lost voters, the resulting numbers have the GOP with just under 50 percent; 49.9 vs 49.5 in July. The Democratic, Non-Partisan, and minor parties share all fell slightly.

Minor parties did not fare well in other demographics. They were unchanged in Clark County but lost registrants and share in Washoe County, among 18 – 34 year olds and those over 55 years old.

How did the others do? In Clark County, the Democratic Party lost a slight share of voters while the Republican Party’s share was unchanged and Non-Partisan had a slight increase. 26.3 percent, up slightly, choose to not identify with either major party (20.4 NP, 5.9 minor party) In Washoe County, Democratic and Non-Partisan share were unchanged from July. The GOP showed a slight increase. Because of the fall in minor party registration, the number of Washoe County voters not affiliating with either major party decreased from 26.5 percent in July to 26.3 percent in August (19.0 NP, 7.3 minor parties)

Among the age categories, 62.5 percent of new voters 18 -34 years of age registered with the Democratic Party and 34.3 percent registered as Non-Partisan. In this group, the Democratic Party’s share rose slightly, the Non-Partisan remained unchanged and the GOP fell slightly. Again, because of the decline of minor party registrants, the total percentage of voters not affiliated with the major parties dropped from 37.7 percent in July to 37.6 (29.5 NP, 8.1 minor party) in August. In the 55 and older group, the share of voters remained unchanged; 40.6 Democratic, 40.2 Republican, 13.9 Non-Partisan.

I understand some may question why I am reporting what are basically minor fluctuations. Given the differences are in the tenths and hundredths of a percent, aren’t the numbers really unchanged?  These people may be right. But nickels and dimes become dollars. As we get closer to February and the presidential caucuses and then to June and the primary, these small changes could result in significant differences. If the trend continues and the percentage of voters who voluntarily give up their right to participate in these events steadily increases, the dissatisfaction and frustration with both the Democratic and Republican Party will be difficult to ignore. 

With the first GOP presidential primary debates only days away, how will the campaign landscape impact voter registration? If the just released July, 2015 numbers from the Nevada Secretary of State’s office are any indication, the trend of voters leaving the two major political parties will continue.

Nevada’s active voter rolls increased by 8,098 over June, 2015. However, while all categories showed an increase in raw numbers, only Non-Partisan increased its percentage share. Of the 8,098 new voters, 37.2 percent chose not to affiliate with either the Democratic or Republican Party. (29.4% Non-Partisan / 7.8% minor parties) That number is greater than either the percentage who registered as Democratic (33.4%) or Republican (29.7%).

In Clark County, the increase in Non-Partisan registration far out-paced that of either of the two major parties; 1.11 percent versus 0.65 Democratic and 0.77 GOP. Non-Partisans now compose over 20 percent of Clark County active registered voters. Adding in minor party registrations, over 26 percent of active voters in Clark County choose not to affiliate with either major party.

Registration numbers in Washoe County show an even greater increase of Non-Partisan versus major party registration; 0.78 percent Non-Partisan, 0.4 percent Democratic, 0.3 percent Republican. 26.5 percent of active Washoe County voters (19% Non-Partisan, 7.5% minor party) now choose not to affiliate with the major parties.

A new demographic I’ll start tracking is the trend in the rural counties. Since January, 2015, growth of voters registered as Non-Partisan or to a minor political party is quadruple that of the Democratic or Republican party. Over this period Non-Partisan registration increased 2.9 percent and now represents 17 percent of the rural voter registration. Minor party registration also increased 2.5 percent. The Democratic party lost four voters and the GOP increased only 0.57 percent. Just under 25 percent of rural voters do not affiliate with either major party.

In the 18 – 34 year old demographic, the month over month increase of active voters registered as Non-Partisan or in a minor party doubled the growth of either the Democratic and Republican party; 1.8 percent (1.18% Non-Partisan, 0.62% minor party) as compared to 0.81 and 0.92 respectively. Just under 30 percent of voters in this group are now registered as Non-Partisan and the total not affiliating with either major party is approaching 40 percent.

Similar growth was also recorded in the 55 and over age group. Non-Partisan registration grew by 0.88 percent. Minor party registration in this age group increased 0.85 percent. Comparatively, Democratic registration increased by only 0.54 percent and GOP registration by only 0.6 percent. 19.2 percent of voters in this group, almost 44 percent of all active voters in Nevada do not affiliate with either of the two major political parties.

As the 2016 campaigns shift to high gear and voters’ interest increases, it will be interesting to see if voters continue to distance themselves from the two major political parties. Check back each month to find out. 

Increases in voter registrations as Non-Partisan or as members of a minor political party continue to outpace increases of both the Republican and Democratic parties. For the month of June, 2015, data just released by the Nevada Secretary of State’s office show the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan increased 1.02 percent over May, 2015. The number of voters registered to one of the minor political parties also increased by 0.78 percent. For the same time period, Democratic Party registration only grew 0.47 percent and registration in the GOP increased only 0.55 percent. As a percent of total registered voters both the Democratic and Republican parties decreased while Non-Partisan and minor parties increased their share of registered voters. Over 26 percent of active voters in Nevada now choose not to affiliate with a major political party.

This trend is not only present in the state-wide numbers. In Clark County Non-Partisan registration increased by 1.09 percent and minor parties 0.76 percent while Democratic and Republican party registration grew by only 0.51 and 0.71 percent respectively.

Washoe County also saw similar numbers. Non-Partisan, + 1.02, minor parties +0.94, Democratic Party +0.49, GOP +0.40.

In the 18 – 34 year old demographic, active voters registered as Non-Partisan or in a minor party continue to outnumber both the Democratic and Republican parties; 37.6 percent compared to 33.7 Democratic and 25.1 Republican. Non-Partisan registration increased 1.13 percent compared to 0.64 for Democrats and 1.08 for Republicans.

Similar growth was also recorded in the 55 and over age group. Non-Partisan registration grew by 0.76 percent. Minor party registration in this age group increased 0.88 percent. Comparatively, Democratic registration increased by only 0.41 percent and GOP registration by only 0.49 percent. 19.2 percent of voters in this group, almost 44 percent of all active voters in Nevada do not affiliate with either of the two major political parties.

Nevada voters continue to be disillusioned with both the Democratic and Republican parties. I highly doubt this trend will change.

I am currently laying the groundwork to bring the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act (NEMRA) back to legislators with the hope of having it introduced again in the 2017 legislative session. I am convinced voters want lawmakers to collaborate and find the best solutions for problems facing our state and nation without regard for partisanship. I am convinced voters will support processes that encourage lawmakers to achieve that goal.  

The Nevada Secretary of State’s office released the voter registration totals for May on June 2^, 2015. The 78^th regular session of the Nevada legislature was three-quarters through a session full of partisan bickering and a split GOP caucus. Party-line or near party-line votes appeared to be the rule rather than the exception in both committee and on the floor. (I’ll be posting a detailed analysis of this in the next few months)  Did the Partisanship of the Nevada Legislative Session Impact Voter Registration?

Due to registration rolls maintenance, Washoe County lost 16,575 voters, or 7.09%. In spite of this, the overall statewide numbers remained virtually unchanged, +306. Of the 1.193million active registered voters, 25.91% still choose not to associate with either of the two major political parties. This was an increase of 0.03% over April.

In Clark County all categories showed in increase in registration. This coincides with the increase of over 6,000 active registered voters. Registration as Non-Partisan saw the largest increase, 1.13%. The GOP followed with an increase of 0.77%, the Democratic Party registered an increase of 0.62% and the minor parties increased 0.42%

Among active voters 18 – 34 years of age, 23.6% of all active voters, only Non-Partisan showed an increase, 0.31%.  The GOP lost 0.11%, the Democratic Party lost 0.27%, and the minor parties lost 0.77%.  As has been the trend, 37.5% of younger voters choose not to affiliate with either major political party.

The largest and most active voters in the state are those 55 years of age and above. This group comprises 43.8% of active registered voters. 19.1% choose not to affiliate with either the Republican or Democratic Party; 13.9% are registered Non-Partisan. In May, this number increased by 0.49%, far outpacing the increases of the Democratic Party (0.08%), the GOP (0.16%), and minor parties (0.16%).

Did the Partisanship of the Nevada Legislative Session Impact Voter Registration or was May just a normal month, a continuation of the several year trend?  We are only twelve months away from the next primary election. How large a percentage of the active electorate will Non-Partisan and minor party affiliated voters encompass? How will the state deal with the issue during the 79^thsession in 2017? Will legislators agree to again consider the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act (NEMRA)? I will be working towards that end. A positive step was taken when SB 499 giving slightly more time for minor party and Non-Partisan candidates running for partisan office to file their paperwork was signed by Governor Sandoval.

There is no sign that the trend of voters leaving the two major political parties will either end or subside. NEMRA will continue provide to tool for discussion.

The Nevada Secretary of State’s office has released voter registrationstatistics for February, 2015 and voters continue to favor registration as Non-Partisan or in one of the minor parties over the Democratic or Republican Party.

The need for a change to Nevada’s election statute to address this continuous growing trend is once again justified.