Category: Voter Registration Trends

Monthly voter registration analysis

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Democratic Party Losses Outpace GOP While Non-Partisan and Minor Parties Continue to Gain

The 2017 session of the Nevada Legislature is finishing its first month and Voter registration numbers for February, 2017 do not bode well for the majority party.
The Democratic Party lost voter share across all tracked demographics. The Republican Party lost share except in Washoe County and stayed even in the rural counties. However, the news remains positive for Non-Partisan and minor parties, continuing the trend of gaining voter share.
Of note is the growth percentage for the Libertarian Party in Clark County, among those 55 and over and state-wide; 1.00%, 0.76%, and 0.74% respectively. The Independent American Party also posted a 0.89% growth in Clark County, however, there is always a question as to how many of those voters thought they were registering as independents (Non-Partisan).
The Democratic Party also lost ground in virtually all state senate and assembly districts while the Republican Party voter share losses and gains were about even.
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
494
0.08
39.51
-0.04
R
682
0.14
33.07
-0.02
NP
1,271
0.40
20.94
0.05
Other
360
0.37
6.48
0.02
Total not D or R
27.42
0.07
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.45%; Lib +0.74%; other 5 parties -0.21%
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
1,417
0.31
43.18
-0.05
R
1,208
0.40
28.85
-0.01
NP
1,499
0.65
21.85
0.04
Other
456
0.71
6.11
0.01
Total not D or R
27.96
0.05
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.89%; Lib +1.00%; other 5 parties -0.11%
 Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-640
-0.67
35.71
-0.11
R
-195
-0.20
37.16
0.07
NP
-149
-0.28
19.88
0.02
Other
-35
-0.18
7.26
0.02
Total not D or R
27.14
0.04
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -0.20%; Lib -0.22%; other 5 parties -0.44%
Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-283
-0.62
24.24
-0.06
R
-331
-0.35
51.07
0.03
NP
-79
-0.24
17.28
0.03
Other
-35
-0.18
7.41
0.00
Total not D or R
24.69
0.03
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -0.58%; Lib +0.42%; other 5 parties -0.55%
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-119
-0.07
39.62
-0.01
R
-180
-0.19
22.69
-0.04
NP
82
0.07
29.63
0.03
Other
19
-0.06
8.06
0.01
Total not D or R
37.69
0.04
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.17%; Lib +0.55%; other 5 parties -0.62%
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
444
0.18
40.01
-0.06
R
825
0.33
40.46
0.00
NP
483
0.55
14.34
0.03
Other
183
0.58
5.18
0.01
Total not D or R
19.52
0.04
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.55%; Lib +0.76%; other 5 parties +0.63%
Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.
Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
4
0
0
Republican
2
1
1
Non-Partisan
0
4
0
Other
0
4
0
Both CD 1 and CD 4continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
20
1
0
Republican
9
11
1
Non-Partisan
2
18
1
Other
2
19
0
In 13 districts (61.9%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is unchanged from last month.
State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
37
2
3
Republican
21
18
3
Non-Partisan
8
32
2
Other
6
32
4
In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is unchanged from last month.
The percent of voters not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican Party is on a pace to equal and perhaps surpass the percent registered to vote in one of the major parties. Among those 18 to 34 years of age, the number of Non-Partisan is seven percentage points higher than those registered in the GOP and the total not affiliated with a major party is only two percent lower than the percent registered as Democratic.

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As Session Sets to Open Major Parties Still Losing Voter Share

The 2017 session of the Nevada Legislature begins in four days and the Voter registration numbers for January, 2017 show no change in the trend. Both major political parties continue to lose voter share while Non-Partisan and total voters not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican Party grow. According to the secretary of state’s office, some counties performed routine list maintenance. However, the trend still was across all demographics; state-wide, Clark County, Washoe County, rural counties, among those 18 – 34 years of age and those above 55.
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-340
-0.06
39.55
0.00
R
-569
-0.11
33.09
-0.02
NP
76
0.02
20.89
0.01
Other
-41
-0.05
6.46
0.00
Total not D or R
27.35
0.01
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -0.03%; Lib +0.11%; other 5 parties -0.26%
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
77
0.02
43.23
0.00
R
-124
-0.04
28.86
-0.02
NP
220
0.10
21.81
0.02
Other
33
0.05
6.10
0.01
Total not D or R
27.91
0.03
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.09%; Lib +0.25%; other 5 parties -0.22%
Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-314
-0.33
35.82
-0.01
R
-291
-0.29
37.09
0.00
NP
-126
-0.24
19.86
0.02
Other
-56
-0.19
7.24
0.00
Total not D or R
27.10
0.02
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -0.34%; Lib -0.09%; other 5 parties -0.28%
 Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-103
-0.23
24.30
-0.01
R
-154
-0.16
51.04
0.00
NP
-18
-0.06
17.25
0.02
Other
-26
-0.19
7.41
0.00
Total not D or R
24.66
0.02
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -0.14%; Lib -0.21%; other 5 parties -0.64%
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-533
-0.32
39.63
0.00
R
-386
-0.41
22.73
-0.01
NP
-338
-0.28
29.60
0.02
Other
-95
-0.28
8.05
0.01
Total not D or R
37.65
0.03
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -0.18%; Lib -0.24%; other 5 parties -0.57%
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
220
0.09
40.07
0.00
R
136
0.06
40.46
-0.02
NP
230
0.26
14.31
0.02
Other
39
0.12
5.17
0.01
Total not D or R
19.48
0.03
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.12%; Lib +0.23%; other 5 parties +0.05%
Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.
Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
1
1
2
Republican
3
1
0
Non-Partisan
0
4
0
Other
0
1
3
Both CD 1 and CD 4continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
8
6
7
Republican
17
2
2
Non-Partisan
0
17
4
Other
7
7
7
In 13 districts (61.9%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is unchanged from last month.
State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
23
18
1
Republican
30
7
5
Non-Partisan
6
28
8
Other
14
20
8
In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is unchanged from last month.
Bill language is pending on a bill draft request submitted by Senator James Settelymeyer (R-Minden) that will open up the primary election process to this continually growing segment of disenfranchised Nevada voters. The Nevada legislature can lead the nation by becoming the first legislative body to enact this important election reform. Voters in other states have lead election reform efforts. Isn’t it better if elected officials implement these changes?

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December Not Good for Major Parties As Both Lose Voter Share While Non-Partisan and Minor Parties Gain

December, 2016 Voter registration numbers are in and the trend continues.  Even though the state recorded only a small gain in active registered voters (943), the anomaly that was November gave way to a continuation of the trend where both the Democratic and Republican Party lost voter share while Non-Partisan and minor parties continue to gain. As what has become normal, the trend is across all demographics, state-wide, Clark County, Washoe County, rural counties, among 18 to 34 year olds and those 55 and over.
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-147
-0.02
39.55
-0.04
R
32
0.01
33.11
-0.02
NP
548
0.17
20.88
0.03
Other
510
0.53
6.46
0.03
Total not D or R
27.34
0.06
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.64%; Lib +0.80%; other 5 parties -0.12%
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-197
-0.04
43.23
-0.02
R
-311
-0.1
28.88
-0.03
NP
30
0.01
21.79
0.00
Other
365
0.57
6.09
0.03
Total not D or R
27.88
0.03
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.73%; Lib +0.77%; other 5 parties -0.09%
Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
30
0.03
35.83
-0.05
R
121
0.12
37.09
-0.01
NP
228
0.43
19.84
0.05
Other
64
0.33
7.24
0.01
Total not D or R
27.08
0.06
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.43%; Lib +0.85%; other 5 parties -0.41%
 Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
20
0.04
24.31
-0.07
R
222
0.23
51.04
-0.05
NP
290
0.90
17.23
0.10
Other
81
0.58
7.41
0.01
Total not D or R
24.64
0.11
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.53%; Lib +0.90%; other 5 parties +0.55%
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-567
-0.34
39.63
-0.03
R
-388
-0.41
22.74
-0.04
NP
-222
-0.18
29.58
0.02
Other
78
0.23
8.04
0.04
Total not D or R
37.62
0.06
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.43%; Lib +0.56%; other 5 parties -0.48%
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
484
0.20
40.07
-0.05
R
768
0.31
40.48
0.00
NP
639
0.74
14.29
0.03
Other
233
0.75
5.16
0.02
Total not D or R
19.45
0.05
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.80%; Lib +0.69%; other 5 parties +0.44%
Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.
Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
3
0
1
Republican
4
0
0
Non-Partisan
0
4
0
Other
0
4
0
Both CD 1 and CD 4continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
16
5
0
Republican
17
4
0
Non-Partisan
5
14
2
Other
1
19
1
In 13 districts (61.9%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
30
10
2
Republican
32
8
2
Non-Partisan
11
29
2
Other
5
34
3
In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of one over November.
We are less than a month from the start of the 2017 Nevada legislative session. A bill draft request (BDR) has been filed to acknowledge this continuing trend. If passed, Nevada will be the first state legislature to positively address election reform; election reform normally takes a voter initiative petition.

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GOP Continues to Lose Voter Share as Dem’s, Non-Partisan, and “Other” Gain

Voter registration numbers for November, 2016 have been released and it’s not good news for the GOP. Across all demographics, the Republican Party lost voter share while the Democratic Party, Non-Partisan, and minor parties gained. The only exception was in the 18-34 year old age group where Non-Partisan and minor parties also lost share. There is a caveat. The Independent American Party (IAP) grew by over four percent among this demographic leading to the assumption that some of those voters meant to register as Non-Partisan (an accepted fact).  The IAP also experienced high growth across all other demographics, recording the highest growth rate state-wide of 3.63 percent. Based on historical trends, the assumption is some of this growth should have been in the Non-Partisan category.
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
18,137
3.14
39.59
0.15
R
9.689
1.98
33.13
-0.24
NP
9,289
3.05
20.85
0.06
Other
3,071
3.28
6.43
0.03
Total not D or R
27.28
0.09
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +3.63%; Lib +3.30%; other 5 parties +1.94%
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
15,425
3.52
43.25
0.16
R
7,081
2.39
28.91
-0.21
NP
7,274
3.28
21.79
0.03
Other
2,269
3.70
6.06
0.03
Total not D or R
27.85
0.06
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +3.70%; Lib +3.75%; other 5 parties +2.13%
 Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
1,390
1.47
35.88
0.02
R
1,008
1.03
37.10
-0.15
NP
971
1.87
19.79
0.09
Other
369
1.95
7.23
0.04
Total not D or R
27.02
0.13
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.25%; Lib +2.12%; other 5 parties +0.86%
Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
1,322
2.98
24.38
0.15
R
1,600
1.70
51.09
-0.36
NP
1,053
3.39
17.13
0.16
Other
433
3.22
7.40
0.06
Total not D or R
24.53
0.22
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +3.19%; Lib +3.21%; other 5 parties +3.61%
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
6,122
3.85
39.66
0.21
R
2,666
2.89
22.78
-0.09
NP
3,429
2.87
29.56
-0.12
Other
1,048
3.25
8.00
-0.01
Total not D or R
37.56
-0.13
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +4.12%; Lib +3.31%; other 5 parties +1.22%
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
4,847
2.03
40.12
0.07
R
3,460
1.43
40.48
-0.16
NP
1,950
2.30
14.26
0.06
Other
763
2.50
5.14
0.03
Total not D or R
19.40
0.09
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.50%; Lib +2.29%; other 5 parties +2.66%
Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.
Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
4
0
0
Republican
4
0
0
Non-Partisan
1
3
0
Other
0
4
0
In CD 1 and CD 4the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is the first time more than one CD has fallen into this category
State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
1
19
1
Republican
21
0
0
Non-Partisan
6
15
0
Other
1
20
0
In 13 districts (61.9%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of one district since close of registration for the general election
State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
6
33
3
Republican
42
0
0
Non-Partisan
12
29
1
Other
6
32
4
In 30 districts (71.43%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
November was a good month for the Democratic Party and a disaster for the Republican. November also appears to be one of the exceptions where one of the major parties outperformed Non-Partisans.
We are nine weeks away from the start of the 2017 Nevada legislative session. It will be interesting to see how the legislature in action impacts voter registration trends.

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More Voters Identify As Independent Than Democratic or Republican

Between January and August of 2016, Pew Research polled over 8,100 registered voters in various polls where the topic was U.S. politics and / or policy. All polls included this question: ” In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or independent?
In September, Pew consolidated the answers and the results are very telling. The results are tabulated both in general and detailed categories, 215 separate elements. The number of voters identifying as Independent is higher than both the Democratic and Republican Party in 65 or 30.23 percent. In an additional 130 fields or 60.47 percent, the number identifying as Independent beats or is tied with one of the major political parties.
This should not be a surprise. This data further substantiates the monthly voter registration analysis posted on this blog.
The Nevada legislature can proactively address the overwhelming concern expressed by all the data by enacting the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act for 2017 (NEMRA – 2017). All that is needed to start this process is a Bill Draft Request (BDR). The time is now.
(VOL.)
Other/
Rep/
Dem/
No
Unweighted
Rep
Dem
Ind
DK
Lean Rep
Lean Dem
leaning
N
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
ALL REGISTERED VOTERS
29
33
34
4
44
48
8
8113
GENDER
Men
32
26
38
4
51
41
8
4337
Women
27
40
30
4
38
54
8
3776
RACE/ETHNICITY
White, non-Hispanic
36
26
35
3
54
39
7
5895
Black, non-Hispanic
3
70
23
4
7
87
6
782
Hispanic
16
47
32
5
27
63
10
810
Asian, non-Hispanic (English-speaking, only)
18
44
32
6
27
66
7
164
GENERATION
Millennial (ages 18-35 in 2016)
22
34
41
3
36
57
7
1595
Generation X (36-51)
27
33
36
4
42
48
9
1864
Baby-Boomer (52-70)
32
34
30
4
49
45
6
3313
Silent (71-88)
40
32
23
5
53
40
7
1176
DETAILED GENERATION
Younger Millennial (18-25)
22
33
43
2
36
58
6
613
Older Millennial (26-35)
22
35
39
4
36
56
8
982
Younger Gen Xer (36-43)
24
34
37
4
38
51
11
809
Older Gen Xer (44-51)
30
32
35
3
46
46
8
1055
Younger Boomer (52-60)
32
33
32
3
48
46
6
1602
Older Boomer (61-70)
33
34
28
4
49
44
7
1711
Younger Silent (71-80)
39
33
24
4
53
41
7
928
Older Silent (81-88)
43
31
19
8
53
39
8
248
EDUCATION
College grad+
27
36
33
3
41
53
6
3956
   Postgrad
23
43
31
3
35
60
5
1289
  College grad
29
33
34
3
44
50
6
2667
Some college or less
30
32
34
4
46
46
9
4117
   Some college
30
30
36
4
46
45
9
2258
   High school or less
31
34
31
4
45
46
8
1859
FAMILY INCOME
$75,000+
33
31
34
3
49
45
6
3341
$30,000-$74,999
31
31
34
3
48
45
7
2584
<$30,000
20
43
34
3
32
60
8
1464
DETAILED FAMILY INCOME
$150,000+
33
32
32
3
46
48
6
1069
$100,000 to $149,999
34
30
33
3
51
45
4
1188
$75,000 to $99,999
31
30
35
4
48
44
8
1084
$50,000 to $74,999
32
30
35
4
49
44
6
1275
$40,000 to $49,999
31
31
35
3
47
46
7
638
$30,000 to $39,999
31
33
33
3
47
46
7
671
<$30,000
20
43
34
3
32
60
8
1464
MARITAL STATUS
Married
35
32
30
4
51
44
6
939
Unmarried
20
39
38
3
36
56
8
698
GENERATION BY GENDER
Millennial men
26
26
45
4
43
49
8
965
 Millennial women
18
43
36
2
28
66
6
630
Gen Xer men
28
27
41
4
48
43
9
1031
Gen Xer women
26
39
31
3
37
53
10
833
Boomer men
37
27
33
3
56
38
6
1747
Boomer women
28
40
28
4
41
52
7
1566
Silent men
44
25
26
5
60
34
6
537
Silent women
37
38
20
5
48
45
7
639
EDUCATION BY GENDER 2-WAY
College grad+ men
30
27
40
3
49
45
7
2142
College grad+ women
25
45
28
3
34
61
5
1814
Some coll or less men
33
26
37
4
52
40
8
2177
Some coll or less women
28
38
31
4
40
51
9
1940
EDUCATION BY GENDER 4-WAY
Postgrad men
28
31
38
3
45
49
6
668
Postgrad women
20
52
26
2
27
69
4
621
College men
31
25
40
3
50
43
7
1474
 College women
27
41
29
3
38
56
6
1193
Some college men
33
22
40
5
53
37
10
1153
Some college women
27
38
32
4
40
52
7
1105
HS or less men
33
29
34
4
51
42
7
1024
HS or less women
29
38
29
4
40
50
10
835
REGION
Northeast
26
38
33
4
39
54
7
1396
  New England (CT ME MA NH RI VT)
19
34
44
2
35
58
8
372
  Middle Atlantic (DE DC MD NJ NY PA)
27
40
30
4
39
54
7
1241
Great Lakes-East North (IN IL MI OH WI)
29
34
34
4
45
48
8
1194
  Midwest-West North (IA KS MN MO NE ND SD)
32
27
39
3
51
40
9
573
  Midwest
30
31
36
3
47
45
8
1767
South
32
32
32
4
48
45
8
3145
  South Atlantic (FL GA NC SC VA WV)
31
32
33
5
48
45
8
1582
  South Central (AL AR KY LA MS OK TN TX)
34
31
31
4
50
42
8
1345
West
28
34
34
4
40
52
8
1805
  Mountain (AZ CO ID NM MT UT NV WY)
32
29
36
3
45
48
7
637
  Pacific (AK CA HI OR WA)
26
36
33
5
37
54
9
1168
COMMUNITY TYPE
Urban
21
43
33
4
33
60
7
2728
Suburban
32
30
34
3
48
44
7
3778
Rural
38
25
33
3
55
37
8
1390
RELIGIOUS TRADITION
White Non-Hisp Evangelical Protestant
56
14
27
3
76
20
4
1673
White Non-Hisp Mainline Protestant
38
25
34
3
55
37
8
1230
Black Protestant
3
73
20
4
6
88
6
571
Total Catholic
31
34
30
4
47
46
7
1632
  White Non-Hispanic Catholic
38
26
32
3
58
37
6
1151
  Hispanic Catholic
16
56
23
5
23
69
9
363
Mormon
48
13
35
4
69
24
7
142
Jewish
14
53
32
1
24
74
2
188
Total Unaffiliated
12
39
45
3
25
66
9
1681
  Atheist
11
45
40
4
17
74
9
294
  Agnostic
8
40
50
1
21
72
7
352
  Nothing in particular
14
37
45
4
29
62
9
1035
RELIGIOUS TRADITION BY GENERATION
White NH evangelical Prot Millennial
57
13
27
3
78
20
3
198
White NH evangelical Prot Xer
57
9
32
2
79
16
4
324
White NH evangelical Prot Boomer
56
15
27
3
78
19
3
765
White NH evangelical Prot Silent
56
19
21
5
70
24
6
348
White NH mainline Prot Millennial
37
21
40
3
55
34
12
173
White NH mainline Prot Xer
36
26
36
2
53
38
9
234
White NH mainline Prot Boomer
37
26
35
2
56
39
6
545
White NH mainline Prot Silent
45
30
22
3
57
37
6
251
Total Catholic Millennial
28
37
32
3
42
53
5
246
Total Catholic Xer
28
35
34
3
43
48
10
367
Total Catholic Boomer
33
33
30
4
50
44
6
724
Total Catholic Silent
37
31
25
7
55
37
8
267
White NH Catholic Millennial
40
23
35
2
60
36
3
130
White NH Catholic Xer
35
29
33
3
54
39
7
245
White NH Catholic Boomer
38
26
34
2
57
37
6
540
White NH Catholic Silent
42
26
26
6
62
32
6
217
Total Unaffiliated Millennial
9
38
51
2
22
72
6
566
Total Unaffiliated Xer
13
36
45
5
28
61
11
424
Total Unaffiliated Boomer
15
44
38
3
27
63
10
563
Total Unaffiliated Silent
15
47
36
2
23
69
7
104
AMONG WHITE NON-HISPANIC REGISTERED VOTERS
ALL WHITE NON-HISPANIC VOTERS
36
26
35
3
54
39
7
5895
GENDER
Men
39
19
38
3
61
32
7
3168
Women
34
32
31
3
47
46
7
2727
GENERATION
Millennial (ages 18-35 in 2016)
30
25
43
2
47
47
5
966
Generation X (36-51)
35
25
37
3
53
38
9
1251
Baby-Boomer (52-70)
38
26
33
3
57
37
6
2571
Silent (71-88)
44
27
24
4
59
35
6
998
DETAILED GENERATION
Younger Millennial (18-25)
30
24
45
1
49
49
3
344
Older Millennial (26-35)
29
26
41
3
46
46
7
622
Younger Gen Xer (36-43)
32
27
38
4
49
40
10
519
Older Gen Xer (44-51)
37
24
36
3
56
37
7
732
Younger Boomer (52-60)
38
25
35
2
58
36
6
1189
Older Boomer (61-70)
39
27
31
3
56
38
6
1382
Younger Silent (71-80)
45
26
26
3
60
34
5
778
Older Silent (81-88)
43
30
19
8
54
38
8
220
EDUCATION
College grad+
32
32
34
3
47
48
5
3069
  Postgrad
28
39
32
2
42
55
3
997
  College grad
34
29
34
3
50
45
5
2072
Some college or less
39
22
36
3
58
34
8
2811
   Some college
37
22
38
3
57
36
8
1610
   High school or less
41
22
33
3
59
33
8
1201
FAMILY INCOME
$75,000+
37
26
34
3
55
40
5
2634
$30,000-$74,999
39
23
35
2
58
36
6
1894
<$30,000
29
30
38
2
45
47
8
867
DETAILED FAMILY INCOME
$150,000+
38
29
32
2
52
43
4
860
$100,000 to $149,999
38
25
34
3
57
39
4
933
$75,000 to $99,999
36
26
35
3
54
38
8
841
$50,000 to $74,999
38
24
35
3
58
37
6
973
$40,000 to $49,999
38
23
37
2
57
36
7
465
$30,000 to $39,999
42
21
34
2
60
35
5
456
<$30,000
29
30
38
2
45
47
8
867
MARITAL STATUS
Married
39
26
32
4
56
38
6
686
Unmarried
26
31
40
3
47
46
7
424
GENERATION BY GENDER
Millennial men
33
18
46
3
54
39
7
598
 Millennial women
26
33
40
40
57
4
368
Gen Xer men
36
19
42
3
59
33
7
700
Gen Xer women
34
31
32
4
47
43
10
551
Boomer men
42
19
36
3
65
29
6
1368
Boomer women
34
32
30
3
49
44
7
1203
Silent men
48
20
28
5
66
29
5
460
Silent women
42
33
22
4
54
40
6
538
EDUCATION BY GENDER 2-WAY
College grad+ men
34
24
39
3
54
40
5
1681
College grad+ women
30
40
29
2
41
55
4
1388
Some coll or less men
42
16
38
3
65
28
7
1480
Some coll or less women
36
28
33
3
51
40
8
1331
EDUCATION BY GENDER 4-WAY
Postgrad men
32
27
38
3
52
44
4
524
Postgrad women
24
49
26
1
33
64
3
473
College men
35
22
40
3
55
39
6
1157
 College women
33
35
30
3
45
50
5
915
Some college men
41
14
41
4
64
28
8
818
Some college women
34
29
34
3
50
42
8
792
HS or less men
43
18
35
3
66
28
7
662
HS or less women
39
27
31
3
52
38
9
539
REGION
Northeast
32
31
34
3
47
47
6
1056
  New England (CT ME MA NH RI VT)
22
31
46
2
38
55
7
311
  Middle Atlantic (DE DC MD NJ NY PA)
35
32
31
3
51
45
5
880
Midwest
34
26
36
3
53
40
8
1453
  Great Lakes-East North (IN IL MI OH WI)
34
27
35
4
52
41
7
954
  Midwest-West North (IA KS MN MO NE ND SD)
35
24
39
2
55
37
8
499
South
42
21
33
3
62
32
6
2127
  South Atlantic (FL GA NC SC VA WV)
40
21
35
3
62
31
6
1078
  South Central (AL AR KY LA MS OK TN TX)
46
20
31
3
64
29
6
914
West
33
28
36
3
47
45
7
1259
  Mountain (AZ CO ID NM MT UT NV WY)
37
23
38
2
51
41
7
485
  Pacific (AK CA HI OR WA)
31
31
34
4
45
48
7
774
COMMUNITY TYPE
Urban
29
33
36
3
45
49
6
1713
Suburban
38
24
35
3
56
37
7
2898
Rural
43
21
33
3
61
32
7
1164
RELIGIOUS TRADITION
White Non-Hisp Evangelical Protestant
56
14
27
3
76
20
4
1673
White Non-Hisp Mainline Protestant
38
25
34
3
55
37
8
1230
White Non-Hispanic Catholic
38
26
32
3
58
37
6
1151
Mormon
52
11
36
1
71
22
7
120
Jewish
13
53
33
1
22
75
2
178
White non-Hisp Total Unaffiliated
14
38
46
3
27
65
8
1240
  Atheist
11
46
40
3
16
77
6
232
  Agnostic
8
43
48
1
19
73
8
279
  Nothing in particular
16
33
47
3
33
57
9
729
AMONG BLACK NON-HISPANIC REGISTERED VOTERS
ALL BLACK NON-HISPANIC VOTERS
3
70
23
4
7
87
6
782
GENDER
Men
4
63
28
4
6
85
8
379
Women
2
75
18
4
7
89
4
403
GENERATION
Millennial (ages 18-35 in 2016)
3
58
33
6
9
84
7
183
Generation X (36-51)
3
70
25
2
6
88
6
227
Baby-Boomer (52-70)
3
77
15
4
6
89
5
300
EDUCATION
College grad+
2
69
26
2
6
89
5
283
  Postgrad
3
76
19
2
5
91
4
103
  College grad
2
66
30
2
6
88
6
180
Some college or less
3
70
22
5
7
87
6
498
   Some college
3
66
25
5
9
85
6
241
   High school or less
3
73
19
5
5
88
7
257
FAMILY INCOME
$75,000+
3
66
26
4
6
86
8
221
$30,000-$74,999
2
70
23
5
8
88
5
236
<$30,000
4
72
21
2
7
88
5
268
RELIGIOUS TRADITION
Black non-Hisp Protestant
3
73
20
4
6
88
6
571
Black non-Hisp Total Unaffiliated
4
65
28
3
10
87
4
100
AMONG HISPANIC REGISTERED VOTERS
ALL HISPANIC VOTERS
16
47
32
5
27
63
10
810
GENDER
Men
17
40
38
6
32
57
10
427
Women
15
53
28
5
21
68
10
383
GENERATION
Millennial (ages 18-35 in 2016)
14
44
38
4
24
66
10
288
Generation X (36-51)
13
45
38
4
25
61
14
209
Baby-Boomer (52-70)
20
54
19
7
30
64
6
229
EDUCATION
College grad+
16
48
31
4
26
66
8
278
Some college or less
16
47
33
5
27
63
11
526
   Some college
20
43
34
4
30
59
11
231
   High school or less
13
49
32
7
24
65
11
295
FAMILY INCOME
$75,000+
26
38
32
3
41
54
6
243
$30,000-$74,999
14
48
33
5
25
64
10
262
<$30,000
10
55
32
3
18
74
9
226
NATIVE/FOREIGN BORN
Native born
18
46
33
3
30
62
8
549
Foreign born
11
50
30
9
20
66
14
246
RELIGIOUS TRADITION
Hispanic Catholic
16
56
23
5
23
69
9
363
Hispanic Total Unaffiliated
7
39
50
4
24
62
14
166

Posted on

Close of Voter Registration – Non-Partisans and Minor Party Will Determine Outcome

Voter registration for the 2016 general election has closed. Some interesting numbers: -5.87%,    -3.92%, +19.21%, +7.93%. These are the percentage of change in voter share since the last presidential election for the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, Non-Partisan, and minor parties. Here is the 2012 to 2016 comparison.
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share – 2012
% Voter Share – 2016
Difference in Voter Share %
% Change
D
50,693
9.62
41.90
39.44
-2.46
-5.87
R
52,062
11.92
34.73
33.17
-1.36
-3.92
NP
85,229
38.86
17.44
20.79
3.35
19.21
Other
19,214
25.78
5.93
6.40
0.47
7.93
Total not D or R
23.37
27.19
3.82
16.35
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +8.95%; Lib +5.84%; other 5 parties +114.10%
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share – 2012
% Voter Share – 2016
Difference in Voter Share %
% Change
D
48,545
12.44
45.82
43.09
-2.73
-5.96
R
33,753
12.84
30.85
29.12
-1.73
-5.61
NP
70,055
46.24
17.78
21.76
3.98
22.38
Other
14,145
29.95
5.54
6.03
0.49
8.84
Total not D or R
23.32
27.79
4.47
19.17
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +9.12%; Lib +57.86%; other 5 parties +170.00%
Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share – 2012
% Voter Share – 2016
Difference in Voter Share %
% Change
D
3,701
4.77
37.60
35.86
-1.74
-4.63
R
6,197
6.74
38.08
37.25
-0.83
-2.18
NP
9,407
22.11
17.62
19.70
2.08
11.80
Other
2,757
17.03
6.71
7.19
0.48
7.15
Total not D or R
24.33
26.89
2.56
10.52
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.92%; Lib +57.20%; other 5 parties +50.18%
 Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share – 2012
% Voter Share – 2016
Difference in Voter Share %
% Change
D
-1,553
-3.38
27.94
24.23
-3.71
-13.28
R
12,112
14.76
49.92
51.45
1.53
3.06
NP
5,794
22.93
15.37
16.97
1.60
10.41
Other
2,312
20.80
6.77
7.34
0.57
8.42
Total not D or R
22.14
24.31
2.17
9.80
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +15.97%; Lib +63.0%; other 5 parties +16.76%
Voter registration for the 18 days of October strengthen the assumption that in addition to turnout, those registered as Non-Partisan and in minor parties will determine the outcome. Younger voters, those between the ages of 18 to 34 should also have a major impact. Their numbers grew by just over 10 percent in these 18 days. That is on top of the seven percent growth recorded for that demographic in September. Another point that should gain attention is that in 18 days many of the changes in voter share exceed + / – one-half percent.
Early voting has begun. As voters head to the polls, the trend, fewer voters associating with either major political party continues.  We will know the true impact in a few weeks.
 State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
29,102
5.30
39.44
-0.12
R
17,751
3.77
33.37
-0.61
NP
25,164
9.01
20.79
0.64
Other
6,252
7.15
6.40
0.09
Total not D or R
27.19
0.73
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +5.06%; Lib +10.73%; other 5 parties +12.59%
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
24,562
5.93
43.09
-0.17
R
12,382
4.36
29.12
-0.55
NP
19,277
9.53
21.76
0.64
Other
4,371
7.67
6.03
0.08
Total not D or R
27.79
0.72
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +5.89%; Lib +11.71%; other 5 parties +11.14%
 Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
3,249
3.56
35.86
-0.18
R
2,168
2.26
37.25
-0.66
NP
3,716
7.71
19.70
0.66
Other
1,208
6.81
7.19
0.18
Total not D or R
26.89
0.84
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +3.0%; Lib +9.50%; other 5 parties +18.08%
Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
1,291
3.0
24.23
-0.29
R
3,201
3.52
51.45
-0.32
NP
2,171
7.51
16.97
0.53
Other
673
5.28
7.34
0.08
Total not D or R
24.31
0.61
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +4.25%; Lib +8.44%; other 5 parties +10.50%
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
13,378
9.46
39.45
-0.21
R
6,168
7.17
22.87
-0.61
NP
13,914
13.16
29.68
0.82
Other
3,409
11.81
8.01
0.13
Total not D or R
37.69
0.95
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +8.64%; Lib +15.20%; other 5 parties +16.77%
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
5,951
2.56
40.05
-0.05
R
4,984
2.10
40.64
-0.24
NP
3,669
4.53
14.20
0.26
Other
1,008
3.42
5.11
0.04
Total not D or R
19.31
0.30
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.78%; Lib +4.02%; other 5 parties +7.65%
 Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.
Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
4
0
0
Republican
4
0
0
Non-Partisan
0
4
0
Other
0
4
0
In CD 1 there are over two percent more voters registered as Non-Partisan than Republican. When minor party registrations are added, the difference is over eight percent.
State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
20
0
1
Republican
21
0
0
Non-Partisan
0
21
0
Other
0
21
0
In 13 districts (61.90%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of one district over September, 2016
State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
42
0
0
Republican
42
0
0
Non-Partisan
2
40
0
Other
0
42
0
In 29 districts (69.05%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of 2 districts over September, 2016
This data reinforces the fact that voters are disillusioned with the current state of the political landscape and are expressing that disillusionment by not affiliating with either major political party or any political party. I do not believe the parties can reverse this feeling in the near future. They can however, recognize the landscape and adapt to it. The Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017) provides the tool.

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Younger Voters (18 – 34 years old) Increase by 7 Percent / Non-Partisan Tops 20 Percent

Voter registration numbers for September, 2016 have been released and two numbers stand out. The number of voters 18 – 34 years of age grew by almost seven percent. This is not quite double (75 percent) the overall increase for the state (3.86 percent). Also, for the first time, voters registered as Non-Partisan top 20 percent of total active voters.
The Democratic and Republican Parties should also be concerned in that they continue to lose voter share to Non-Partisan and minor parties and are picking up new voters at a rate less than one-half the rate of those two groups. This continuing trend resonates across all demographics.
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
17,473
3.29
39.56
-0.22
R
11,643
2.53
33.98
-0.44
NP
17,614
6.73
20.15
0.54
Other
4,861
5.88
6.31
0.12
Total not D or R
26.46
0.66
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +3.47%; Lib +9.81%; other 5 parties +13.17%
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
15,309
3.84
43.26
-0.27
R
8,257
2.99
29.67
-0.43
NP
14,144
7.52
21.12
0.60
Other
3,402
6.35
5.95
0.10
Total not D or R
27.07
0.70
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +3.85%; Lib +10.48%; other 5 parties +13.03%
 Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
1,461
1.63
36.04
-0.25
R
1,210
1.28
37.91
-0.41
NP
2,250
4.90
19.04
0.46
Other
897
5.32
7.01
0.20
Total not D or R
26.05
0.66
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.0%; Lib +9.27%; other 5 parties +15.13%
Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
703
1.66
24.52
-0.26
R
2,176
2.45
51.77
-0.14
NP
1,220
4.41
16.44
0.26
Other
562
4.61
7.26
0.13
Total not D or R
23.70
0.39
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.75%; Lib +7.83%; other 5 parties +8.43%
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
7,910
5.76
39.66
-0.39
R
3,577
4.34
23.48
-0.56
NP
9,162
9.46
28.86
0.62
Other
2,562
9.74
7.88
0.21
Total not D or R
36.74
0.83
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +5.40%; Lib +14.35%; other 5 parties +17.68%
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
4,248
1.86
40.10
-0.13
R
4,255
1.83
40.88
-0.14
NP
3,005
3.85
13.94
0.22
Other
875
3.06
5.07
0.04
Total not D or R
19.01
0.26
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.19%; Lib +3.83%; other 5 parties +9.22%
Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.
Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
4
0
0
Republican
4
0
0
Non-Partisan
0
4
0
Other
0
4
0
In CD 1 the number of voters not affiliated with either major party exceeds those registered as Republican by 5.79%. The difference between GOP and Non-Partisan in CD1 is <0.25%. At the end of July, 2016 the difference was over 0.60%
State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
21
0
0
Republican
21
0
0
Non-Partisan
0
21
0
Other
0
21
0
In 12 districts (57.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
42
0
0
Republican
42
0
0
Non-Partisan
2
40
0
Other
0
42
0
In 27 districts (64.29%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of 3 districts over August, 2016
September was National Voter Registration Month. Voters registered as Non-Partisan and not affiliated with either major political party will be a major factor in many races. By registering as Non-Partisan or in a minor party, voters are clearly stating something is wrong with either the two-party system or the way the Democratic and Republican Party are addressing the issues.
These voters’ concerns should also be recognized during the upcoming Nevada legislative session as well as in Congress and county commission and city council meetings.  The Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act for 2017 (NEMRA – 2017) provides the path to accomplish this task.

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Active Voters Shrink As Major Parties Continue to Lose Voter Share

The number of active voters in Nevada decreased in August due to routine clean-up of the voter rolls but that did not impact the continuing trend of both the Democratic and Republican Party losing voter share. What is also not changing is the fact Non-Partisan and “other” or minor political parties are growing at a faster rate than either major party.
With the 2016 general election two months away, voter registration efforts are in full swing. Given that the number of total voters, both active and inactive, increased by just under 16,000, these efforts are meeting with success. It is also clear these voters are turning away from the major political parties.  
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-6,409
-1.13
39.78
-0.10
R
-5,299
-1.14
34.42
-0.09
NP
-667
-0.25
19.61
0.13
Other
139
0.17
6.19
0.07
Total not D or R
25.80
0.20
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -1.55%; Lib +1.25%; other 8 parties +7.37%
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-6,294
-1.55
43.53
0.00
R
-5,828
-2.07
30.10
-0.11
NP
-1,982
-1.04
20.52
0.10
Other
-231
-0.43
5.85
0.07
Total not D or R
26.37
0.17
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -2.56%; Lib +0.34%; other 8 parties +8.04%
 Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-60
-0.07
36.29
-0.07
R
-501
-0.53
38.32
-0.24
NP
707
1.56
18.58
0.27
Other
119
0.71
6.81
0.04
Total not D or R
25.39
0.31
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -0.75%; Lib +1.80%; other 8 parties +5.96%
Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
307
0.73
24.78
-0.14
R
1,030
1.17
51.91
-0.07
NP
608
2.25
16.18
0.15
Other
251
2.10
7.13
0.06
Total not D or R
23.31
0.21
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +1.50%; Lib +4.45%; other 8 parties +4.77%
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-919
-0.66
40.05
0.15
R
-1,690
-2.01
24.04
-0.23
NP
-251
-0.26
28.24
0.23
Other
192
0.74
7.67
0.14
Total not D or R
35.91
0.37
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -2.25%; Lib +1.58%; other 8 parties +9.03%
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-1,680
-0.73
40.23
-0.08
R
-1,285
-0.55
41.02
-0.00
NP
-87
-0.11
13.72
0.06
Other
-33
-0.12
5.03
0.02
Total not D or R
18.75
0.08
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -0.92%; Lib +0.56%; other 8 parties +6.00%
Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.
Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
2
2
0
Republican
3
1
0
Non-Partisan
0
4
0
Other
1
3
0
In CD 1 the number of voters not affiliated with either major party exceeds those registered as Republican by 5.79%. The difference between GOP and Non-Partisan in CD1 is <0.25%. At the end of July, 2016 the difference was over 0.60%
State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
13
7
1
Republican
20
1
0
Non-Partisan
3
18
0
Other
0
20
1
In 12 districts (57.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
24
17
1
Republican
39
2
1
Non-Partisan
8
34
0
Other
1
39
1
In 24 districts (57.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of 1 district over July, 2016
September, 2017 has been declared Voter Registration Month by the secretary of state. It will be interesting to see the changes at the end of the month. I expect the trend will continue providing legislators in the 2017 session of the Nevada legislature a choice. Legislators can leave the election process as is with fewer voters choosing our elected officials or they can change the process, recognizing the growing dissatisfaction among the electorate. The Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017), provides the mechanism for this needed change.

Posted on

Major Parties Lose Voter Share As Non-Partisan and Minor Parties Out Front in Growth

The Nevada Democratic Party could be seeing the impact of Bernie Sanders supporters. The Republican Party could be seeing the impact of Donald Trump. Or it could be the trend of voters believing the major political parties do not represent them continues unabated.
Whether one or all of the above apply, July, 2016 voter registration numbers show Non-Partisan and minor party registration out-pacing both the Democratic and Republican Party in rate of growth while at the same time gaining voter share as both major parties lose.
The question also needs to be asked, what is happening with the “other” category? This is a consolidated group of parties not ballot qualified such as the Green and Whig and is continuing to show growth of over 10 percent. This is happening at the same time the Libertarian Party is growing by approximately 5 percent and the Independent American Party by 1 ½ percent.
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
8,564
1.62
39.88
-0.11
R
5,938
1.29
34.51
-0.20
NP
7,890
3.10
19.48
0.23
Other
2,531
3.17
6.12
0.07
Total not D or R
25.70
0.30
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +1.71%; Lib +4.27%; other 8 parties +10.56%
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
7,146
1.80
43.53
-0.11
R
3,678
1.32
30.21
-0.21
NP
6,000
3.26
20.42
0.24
Other
1,851
3.56
5.78
0.08
Total not D or R
26.20
0.32
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +1.64%; Lib +4.58%; other 8 parties +11.73%
  
Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
1,161
1.31
36.36
-0.15
R
1,264
1.34
38.56
-0.15
NP
1,342
3.06
18.31
0.02
Other
474
2.92
6.77
0.08
Total not D or R
25.08
0.10
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.25%; Lib +4.12%; other 8 parties +4.71%
Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
257
0.61
24.92
-0.15
R
996
1.15
51.98
-0.02
NP
548
2.07
16.03
0.14
Other
206
1.76
7.07
0.04
Total not D or R
23.10
0.18
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +1.36%; Lib +3.16%; other 8 parties +3.84%
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
2,598
1.91
39.90
-0.45
R
1,835
2.23
24.27
-0.20
NP
3,743
4.01
28.01
0.25
Other
1,157
4.64
7.53
0.11
Total not D or R
35.54
0.36
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.66%; Lib +5.71%; other 8 parties +10.07%
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
2,381
1.04
40.31
-0.07
R
2,305
0.99
41.02
-0.10
NP
1.654
2.17
13.66
0.13
Other
556
1.98
5.01
0.04
Total not D or R
18.67
0.17
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +1.11%; Lib +2.14%; other 8 parties +9.67%
Major party loses are also the trend in congressional and legislative districts.
Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
4
0
0
Republican
4
0
0
Non-Partisan
0
4
0
Other
0
4
0
In CD 1 the number of voters not affiliated with either major party exceeds those registered as Republican by 4.77%
State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
19
1
1
Republican
20
1
0
Non-Partisan
0
21
0
Other
2
19
0
In 12 districts (57.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of 1 district over June, 2016
State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
37
5
0
Republican
28
2
2
Non-Partisan
0
42
0
Other
1
40
1
In 23 districts (54.76%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of 1 district over June, 2016
The 2017 session of the Nevada legislature convenes in six months. Bill draft requests (BDR) are being submitted now. By filing a BDR for the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017), legislators can show they are ready to address the partisanship that is causing the continuing exodus.
You can let the secretary of state and legislative leaders know you want NEMRA – 2017 passed during the 2017 session by signing the petition on Change.org.

Posted on

Non-Partisan Voter Share Extends Gaining Streak as Democratic and Republican Parties Continue to Lose

The trend continues. Voter registration numbers for June, 2016 once again show Non-Partisan gaining voter share across all demographics at the expense of both the Democratic and Republican Parties. Non-Partisan also leads all other categories, with minor exception, in rate of growth. In this area, the two major parties are also eclipsed by the minor parties; Independent American, Libertarian, and the consolidated group of parties not ballot qualified such as the Green and Whig. The only bright spot for the Democratic Party is among 18 – 34 year olds where their voter share increased by over three percent.  
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
10,465
2.02
39.99
0
R
6,800
1.50
34.71
-0.18
NP
7,183
2.90
19.25
0.16
Other
1,842
2.35
6.05
0.02
Total not D or R
25.30
0.18
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +1.67%; Lib +3.12%; other 8 parties +5.31%
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
9,617
2.48
43.64
-0.04
R
5,191
1.90
30.48
-0.20
NP
6,512
3.67
20.18
0.21
Other
1,562
3.10
5.70
0.03
Total not D or R
25.88
0.24
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.13%; Lib +3.50%; other 8 parties +7.55%
 Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
478
0.54
36.51
-0.02
R
468
0.50
38.71
-0.03
NP
310
0.71
18.08
0.02
Other
130
0.81
6.69
0.02
Total not D or R
24.77
0.04
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.61%; Lib +2.08%; other 8 parties +0.35%
Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
370
0.54
25.07
-0.08
R
1,141
1.33
52.00
0.05
NP
361
1.38
15.89
0.02
Other
150
1.29
7.03
0
Total not D or R
22.92
0.02
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +1.10%; Lib +3.18%; other 8 parties +0.25%
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
4,505
3.43
40.35
3.16
R
1,853
2.30
24.47
-0.22
NP
3,596
4.01
27.76
0.21
Other
878
3.15
7.42
0.03
Total not D or R
35.18
0.24
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.66%; Lib +3.67%; other 8 parties +6.95%
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
3,254
1.45
40.38
0.02
R
3,009
1.31
41.12
-0.04
NP
1,229
1.64
13.53
0.02
Other
386
1.39
4.97
0
Total not D or R
18.50
0.02
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +1.19%; Lib +2.14%; other 8 parties +2.58%
 Major party loses are also the trend in congressional and legislative districts.
Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
4
0
0
Republican
3
1
0
Non-Partisan
0
4
0
Other
0
4
0
In CD 1 the number of voters not affiliated with either major party exceeds those registered as Republican by 4.77%
State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
17
3
1
Republican
17
3
1
Non-Partisan
0
20
1
Other
4
16
1
In 11 districts (52.35%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties
State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
29
12
1
Republican
33
7
2
Non-Partisan
3
39
0
Other
12
30
0
In 22 districts (52.35%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties
Partisanship has reached new toxic levels and voters are reacting by rejecting both major parties. This will continue, creating legislative stalemates at all levels of government unless systemic change takes place. The choices:
Legislators can lead and implement change
Voters can force change by initiative
Do nothing  

Legislators in the 2017 Nevada legislative session can select the first choice, lead, by enacting the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017)
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