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After Democratic Election Wave Party Continues to Lose Voter Share

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

 The Democratic Party experienced a large ballot box victory in November, yet as 2019 begins, the party continues to experience a decline in voter share. The voter registration data for January 2019 just released by the secretary of state shows the Democratic Party losing voter share across all demographics tracked. At the same time Non-Partisan and minor party registration increased share and the GOP was mixed. The same holds true for the rate of growth; the number of new voters registering in each category.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 2,374 0.39% 38.35% -0.04%
R 2,283 0.43% 33.39% -0.02%
NP 2,416 0.70% 21.99% 0.05%
IAP 619 0.80% 4.36% 0.01%
LIB 121 0.76% 1.01% 0.00%
Other -52 -0.37% 0.89% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.25% 0.05

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 2,400 0.52% 41.94% -0.07%
R 2,323 0.72% 29.26% 0.01%
NP 2,261 0.89% 22.89% 0.05%
IAP 589 1.16% 4.11% 0.02%
LIB 105 1.03% 0.92% 0.00%
Other -42 -0.43% 0.87% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.80% 0.06%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 38 0.04% 35.10% -0.02%
R 45 0.04% 36.87% -0.02%
NP 140 0.24% 21.13% 0.03%
IAP 47 0.34% 4.43% 0.01%
LIB 15 0.44% 1.27% 0.00%
Other -9 -0.27% 1.20% 0.00%
Total not D or R     28.04% 0.04%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -64 -0.14% 22.78% -0.01%
R -85 -0.08% 51.71% 0.00%
NP 15 0.04% 18.15% 0.02%
IAP -17 -0.15% 5.68% 0.00%
LIB 1 0.04% 1.13% 0.00%
Other -1 -0.09% 0.55% 0.00%
Total not D or R     25.51% 0.02%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,802 1.08% 38.67% -0.03%
R 1,266 1.29% 22.78% 0.03%
NP 1,549 1.16% 30.96% 0.00%*
IAP 390 1.56%* 4.53% 0.02%*
LIB 106 1.43% 1.73% 0.00%
Other -19 -0.32% 1.34% -0.02%
Total not D or R     38.55% 0.00%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

  • Given this demographic, were these voters believing they were registering as “independent”; should have registered as Non-Partisan?

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 489 0.19% 38.67% -0.05%
R 860 0.32% 41.27% 0.00%
NP 587 0.60% 14.97% 0.04%
IAP 215 0.72% 4.12% 0.02%
LIB 19 0.66% 0.44% 0.00%
Other 2 0.06% 0.53% 0.00%
Total not D or R     20.06% 0.06%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 4 0 0
Republican 2 2 0
Non-Partisan 0 4 0
IAP 0 3 1
LIB 0 0 4
Other 3 0 1

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 18 0 3
Republican 9 9 3
Non-Partisan 1 19 1
IAP 2 15 4
LIB 1 8 12
Other 1 19 1

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 37 3 2
Republican 22 18 2
Non-Partisan 4 36 2
IAP 10 30 2
LIB 6 14 22
Other 22 1 19

In 34 districts (81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

Nearly 30 percent of voters in Nevada are currently not registered to vote in either the Democratic or Republican Party; just under 40 percent for those between the ages of 18 and 34.

During the November election, voters passed automatic voter registration. The necessary action to implement this process has begun. It is more than likely this process will dramatically increase the percent of voters registered as Non-Partisan, potentially making that category the largest segment of voters. A bill to allow same-day voter registration has been filed for consideration during this legislative session. If that passes, the impact on party and Non-Partisan voter share may or may not be significant. However, given the long-term trend the assumption must be it will follow along the same lines. The question then becomes are these voters systemically excluded or does Nevada ensure all voters have the opportunity to participate fully in the election process?

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Growth of Non-Partisan Voters Highlights 2017 – 2018 Comparison

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

December was a month for routine voter list maintenance, so while the month to month trend showed mostly downward movement, the real story is the change that occurred during the full year. Bottom line, 2018 belonged to Non-Partisans.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share % 2017 – 2018 % Voter Share Change
D -1,682 -0.28% 38.39% -0.02% -0.32
R -630 -0.12% 33.41% 0.04% -0.09
NP -1,067 -0.31% 21.95% -0.02% 0.64
IAP -261 0.02% 4.35% 0.01% -0.07
LIB -25 -0.16% 1.00% 0.00% 0.03
Other -249 -1.72% 0.90% -0.01% -0.20
Total not D or R     28.20% -0.02% 0.40

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share % 2017 – 2018 % Voter Share Change
D -2,295 -0.49% 42.01% 0.03% -0.29
R -1,578 -0.48% 29.25% 0.02% 0.00
NP -1,925 -0.75% 22.85% -0.04% 0.54
IAP -515 -0.48% 4.09% 0.00% -0.05
LIB -74 -0.72% 0.92% 0.00% 0.04
Other -224 -2.24% 0.88% -0.02% -0.24
Total not D or R     28.74% -0.06% 0.28

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share % 2017 – 2018 % Voter Share Change
D 401 0.42% 35.12% -0.02% -0.04
R 339 0.34% 36.89% -0.05% -0.80
NP 430 0.75% 21.10% 0.06% 1.08
IAP 107 0.91% 4.42% 0.02% -0.11
LIB 32 0.94% 1.26% 0.01% 0.01
Other -34 -1.02% 1.21% -0.02% -0.14
Total not D or R     27.99% 0.08% 0.83

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share % 2017 – 2018 % Voter Share Change
D 212 0.47% 22.80% -0.05% -0.85
R 609 0.59% 51.71% -0.06% 0.35
NP 428 1.19% 18.13% 0.09% 0.61
IAP 121 1.07% 5.68% 0.02% -0.13
LIB 17 0.76% 1.13% 0.00% 0.05
Other 9 0.83% 0.55% 0.00% -0.03
Total not D or R     25.49% 0.11% 0.51

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share % 2017 – 2018 % Voter Share Change
D -1,176 -0.70% 38.70% 0.02% 0.11
R -693 -0.70% 22.75% 0.01% -0.41
NP -1,059 -0.79% 30.96% -0.01% 0.73
IAP -311 -0.66% 4.51% 0.00% -0.03
LIB -22 -0.30% 1.72% 0.01% 0.03
Other -159 -2.64% 1.36% -0.03% -0.43
Total not D or R     38.55% -0.03% 0.30

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share % 2017 – 2018 % Voter Share -Change
D 50 0.02% 38.72% -0.05% -0.60
R 525 0.19% 41.28% 0.02% 0.61
NP 228 0.23% 14.93% 0.01% 0.16
IAP 91 0.40% 4.10% 0.01% -0.09
LIB 6 0.21% 0.44% 0.00% -0.01
Other -23 -0.66% 0.53% 0.00% -0.07
Total not D or R     20.00% 0.02% -0.01

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 1 2 1
Republican 1 2 1
Non-Partisan 3 1 0
IAP 0 2 2
LIB 1 0 3
Other 4 0 0

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 6 13 2
Republican 11 8 2
Non-Partisan 12 7 2
IAP 3 11 7
LIB 5 6 10
Other 18 1 2

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 13 26 3
Republican 22 18 2
Non-Partisan 23 16 3
IAP 12 23 7
LIB 13 12 17
Other 32 1 9

In 34 districts (81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is a gain of one over November.

As we get ready to start the 2019 legislative session, will the voter registration trend have any impact of the tone of the session? Will voters continue to be dissolutioned by the two major parties? How will the veto-proof majority in one chamber and near veto-proof in the other impact the rhetoric? We’ll know in a couple of months.

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Post-Election Voter Registration Mirrors Election Results

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

 Given the Democratic Party dominance in the general election, it is not surprising to see November 2018 voter registration mirror the election results; Democratic and Non-Partisan gains and GOP loses.

Except for the rural counties. The Democratic Party gained voter share while the Republican Party experienced significant loses. This trend shows not only in tracked demographics but also across state congressional and legislative districts. And while the number of active registered voters in Nevada increased by 25,000, the Republican Party saw a much lower rate of growth than either the Democratic Party or Non-Partisan.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 10,975 1.83 38.41 0.09
R 6,068 1.16 33.37 -0.15
NP 6,297 1.84 21.96 0.05
IAP 1,727 1.77 4.34 0.01
LIB 310 1.99 1.00 0.00
Other 220 1.55 0.91 0.00
Total not D or R     28.21 0.06

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 9,883 2.16 41.98 0.09
R 4,757 1.48 29.22 -0.13
NP 5,195 2.08 22.89 0.03
IAP 1365 2.12 4.09 0.01
LIB 242 2.42 0.92 0.00
Other 176 1.79 0.90 0.00
Total not D or R     28.80 0.04

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 835 0.88 35.14 0.01
R 537 0.54 36.93 -0.11
NP 684 1.21 21.04 0.08
IAP 209 1.14 4.40 0.01
LIB 43 1.28 1.26 0.01
Other 31 0.94 1.23 0.00
Total not D or R     27.93 0.10

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 257 0.57 22.85 -0.06
R 774 0.76 51.77 -0.03
NP 418 1.18 18.04 0.07
IAP 115 1.03 5.66 0.01
LIB 25 1.12 1.13 0.00
Other 13 1.21 0.55 0.00
Total not D or R     25.38 0.08

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 3,807 2.32 38.68 0.13
R 1,403 1.44 22.74 -0.12
NP 2,551 1.93 30.97 -0.01
IAP 604 2.08 4.50 0.01
LIB 126 1.72 1.72 0.00
Other 79 1.33 1.39 -0.01
Total not D or R     38.58 -0.01

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 3,249 1.30 38.77 0.03
R 2,776 1.04 41.25 -0.08
NP 1,415 1.47 14.91 0.04
IAP 496 1.52 4.09 0.01
LIB 47 1.65 0.44 0.00
Other 47 1.37 0.53 0.00
Total not D or R     19.98 0.05

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 0 4 0
Republican 4 0 0
Non-Partisan 0 4 0
IAP 0 4 0
LIB 0 4 0
Other 0 0 4

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 5 15 1
Republican 21 0 0
Non-Partisan 4 15 2
IAP 3 11 7
LIB 1 9 11
Other 4 2 15

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 11 28 3
Republican 40 1 1
Non-Partisan 10 32 0
IAP 10 22 10
LIB 5 17 20
Other 11 12 19

In 33 districts (7857%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

Non-Partisan voters are now 22 percent of active registered voters with 28 percent not registered as either Democratic or Republican. In the largest voting bloc, Baby Boomers, 20 percent are not affiliated with either major party, 15 percent Non-Partisan and among those between the ages of 18 and 34, these number are 39 percent and 31 percent respectfully. Only five percent separate the Democratic and Republican Party statewide and in what was once a solid GOP county, Washoe, less than two percent separate the two major parties; 28 percent are not affiliated with either party with 21 percent Non-Partisan.

Nevada voters just approved automatic voter registration. Now whenever an eligible person does business at the Department of Motor Vehicles they will be automatically registered to vote or if they are already registered their registration will be updated (if needed) unless they specifically say “no”. Because of the way the process is written, the number of Non-Partisan voters is expected to rise significantly. Only time will tell but will Non-Partisans become the largest segment of voters by 2020?

 

 

 

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State-Wide Poll Shows Nevada Voters Want a Better System and Ranked Choice Voting

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform and Scott Siebel and Katie Dahl – FairVote

The time is ripe for political reform in Nevada, with voters eager for more fair and democratic elections.

According to a recent statewide poll sponsored by Nevadans for Election Reform and FairVote, issue-focused elections, higher voter turnout and majority winners topped the list of reforms for Nevada voters. Voters also believe the ability to rank candidates; 1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice, is a good idea.

Highlights from the poll include:

  • 94 percent of survey takers said replacing negative attacks with issue-focused campaigning was “somewhat” or “very” important, including majorities from both Republican and Democratic voters;
  • 80 percent said increasing voter turnout was “very” or “somewhat” important;
  • 79 percent said majority winners (candidates earning over 50 percent of votes) were “very” or “somewhat” important; and
  • 58 percent said they were “very” or “somewhat” likely to support a reform that would end the “lesser of two evils” dynamic at play in single-choice voting systems.
  • 56 percent said ranked choice voting is a “very good” or “somewhat good” system.

All of these values are linked to a ranked choice voting system, suggesting that with increased public awareness – as well as increasing use in cities and as of Nov. 6, 2018, the entire state of Maine – an overwhelming majority of voters will recognize ranked ballots as the best way to see their values realized in elections.

Nevadans for Election Reform will continue our on-the-ground efforts to educate voters and collaborating with our national partners at FairVote to bring Nevada to the forefront of fair and democratic elections.

 

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Non-Partisan Voters Carry the Election for Democratic Candidates

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

Over 900,000 Nevadans cast ballots during the general election of 2018; 62 percent of active registered voters. While the Democratic Party is claiming their voter outreach efforts led to victory and the Republican Party is trying to figure out what went wrong; some party leaders are going as far as to claim voter fraud, the outcome of the election, either margin of victory or determining which candidate won, clearly was dependent on the votes of the Non-Partisan voter.

There’s no question that Democratic voters learned their lesson from 2014 when state-wide turnout was only 45.5 percent and the Republican party won all state constitutional offices along with control of both houses of the state legislature. This time, Democratic candidates won all but one constitutional office and the party extended its majority earned in 2016 in both chambers of the legislature; a veto-proof majority in the assembly

Turnout is a major factor in the outcome of any election. However, with both the Democratic and Republican Party each holding less than 40 percent share of active voters (38.32 and 33.52 percent respectively) it is the 28.15 percent (21.91 percent Non-Partisan and 6.24 percent minor party), not registered to either major party that determined the outcome of many races. This is important not only because both the Democratic and Republican Party, with very minor exception, lose voter share each month while Non-Partisan voter share increases but also because voters passed Automatic Voter Registration (AVR). Because voters are automatically registered as Non-Partisan unless they specify a political party, the percentage of Non-Partisan voters will most likely increase, perhaps significantly.

In 16 races, Non-Partisan voters clearly determined the winner

Position Winner Difference in Party Registration Percent Non-Partisan Margin of Victory Percent vote over Party Registration
Secretary of State R D +4.8% 21.9% 0.65% R: 15.4%

D: 10%
Treasurer: D D +4.8% 21.9% 0.64% D: 9.3%

R: 13.4%
Attorney General: D D +4.8% 21.9% 0.48% D: 8.9%

R: 13.2%

 

Position Winner Difference in Party Registration Percent Non-Partisan Margin of Victory Percent vote over Party Registration
Congressional District 3 D D +1.6% 22.8% 9.01% D: 15.4%

R: 8%
State Senate District 8 D D +1%  21.9% 3.18% D: 15.9%

R: 12.7%
State Senate District 20 R R +0.58% 22.4% 3.18% D: 15.9%

R: 12.7%
State Assembly District 2: R R +4.47% 22% 3.84% R: 13.5%

D: 14.1%
State Assembly District 4: D R +0.07% 21.5% 0.38% D: 12.8%

R: 12.4%
State Assembly District 12: D D +13.84% 22.2% 10.93% D: 10.8%

R: 13.7%
State Assembly District 31: D R +5.79% 19.7% 3.8% D 18.1%

R: 8.5%
State Assembly District 37 D D +0.6% 20.4% 0.42% D: 12.9%

R: 13.1%

In Washoe County, all partisan county-wide races were determined by Non-Partisan. In the county, the Republican Party holds a 1.93 percent advantage over the Democratic Party (37.05% to 35.12%) Non-Partisan has 20.96% voter share, minor parties 6.87 (27.83 percent not affiliated with either major party. Important to note that even though Washoe County voted more Democratic, for county-wide offices, Non-Partisans went more for Republican incumbents

Position Winner Difference in Party Registration Percent Non-Partisan Margin of Victory Percent vote over Party Registration
Assessor: R R +1.93% 21% 0.30% R: 13.1%

D: 14.7%
Public Administrator: R R +1.93% 21% 5.7% R: 15.8%

D: 12%
Recorder: D R +1.93% 21% 4.06% D: 16.9%

R: 10.9%
Treasurer: R R +1.93% 21% 5.6% R: 15.7%

D: 12%
Clerk: R R +1.93% 21% 10.7% R: 18.3%

D: 9.5%

In most other races, the Non-Partisan vote did not materially impact the outcome of the race. In those races, the Non-Partisan vote either slightly decreased the margin of victory but well within the winning party registration advantage or increased the margin of victory.

What made Non-Partisans favor the Democratic candidates this election? Was their vote a vote against President Trump? Did the Democratic Party do a better job of addressing the issues that they consider important? Was it a reaction to the lack of specifics in the campaigns? It could be these or other things. The one thing I believe is certain, the Democratic Party can not assume Non-Partisan voters will always be in their corner.

 

 

 

 

 

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Non-Partisans Will Determine the Winners

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

In the 18 days of voter registration in October before the close of registration for the general election, it has become clear, those voters registered as Non-Partisan will most likely control the outcome of most partisan races.

According to the numbers from the secretary of state’s office for the 18 days covered by the report, Non-Partisan registration out-paced the major parties in both rate of growth and change in voter share. This was true state-wide, Clark County, Washoe County, the rural counties, among those 18 to 34 years of age, and those 55 years of age and older. The only exceptions, Democratic voter share among those 18 to 34 years of age and Republican voter share of those 55 and older increased slightly.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 15,891 2.73 38.32 -0.01
R 10,726 2.09 33.52 -0.22
NP 13,614 4.15 21.91 0.29
IAP 1,659 2.07 4.33 -0.03
LIB 355 2.33 1.00 0.00
Other -67 -0.47 0.91 -0.03
Total not D or R 28.15 0.23

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 13,356 3.00 41.89 -0.03
R 7,336 2.34 29.36 -0.21
NP 10,674 4.46 22.86 0.30
IAP 1,276 2.58 4.08 -0.02
LIB 259 2.66 0.91 0.00
Other -107 -1.08 0.90 -0.04
Total not D or R 28.75 0.24

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,919 2.07 35.12 -0.04
R 1,631 1.66 37.05 -0.19
NP 2,046 3.76 20.96 0.32
IAP 186 1.02 4.39 -0.05
LIB 42 1.26 1.25 -0.01
Other 27 0.83 1.23 -0.02
Total not D or R 27.83 0.24

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 616 1.38 22.91 -0.09
R 1,759 1.75 51.80 -0.02
NP 894 2.58 17.97 0.14
IAP 130 1.18 5.65 -0.03
LIB 54 2.49 1.13 0.01
Other 13 1.23 0.54 0.00
Total not D or R 25.29 0.12

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 8,541 5.49 38.55 0.15
R 3,359 3.57 22.86 -0.33
NP 7,698 6.20 30.98 0.32
IAP 1,005 4.02 4.50 -0.05
LIB 240 3.39 1.72 -0.03
Other 24 0.41 1.39 -0.06
Total not D or R 38.59 0.18

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 3,325 1.34 38.74 -0.09
R 4,308 1.64 41.33 0.03
NP 2,209 2.35 14.88 0.11
IAP 192 0.59 4.08 -0.02
LIB 16 0.57 0.44 0.00
Other -91 -2.58 0.53 -0.02
Total not D or R 19.93 0.07

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

 

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 3 1 0
Republican 4 0 0
Non-Partisan 0 4 0
IAP 4 0 0
LIB 0 0 4
Other 4 0 0

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 13 3 0
Republican 21 0 0
Non-Partisan 0 21 0
IAP 18 2 1
LIB 11 5 5
Other 19 0 2

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties..

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 33 8 1
Republican 39 2 1
Non-Partisan 0 42 0
IAP 31 7 4
LIB 21 9 12
Other 37 3 2

In 33 districts (78.57%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This was the second consecutive month of a one district increase

Early voting has started. With a record number of eligible Nevadans registered to vote and with nearly 30 percent not registered to either the Democratic or Republican Party (nearly 40 percent among younger voters), many races will be determined by not only the overall turnout but how the Non-Partisan and minor party voters cast their ballots.

 

 

 

 

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Could Partisan Politics Be Entering the End of Life – OPINION

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

Young people seventeen years of age in Nevada can pre-register to vote.

In doing so they are clearly showing that partisan politics is now in what some call the “end of life stage”, that point where death is immanent. Ignoring this will not make it go away. Ignoring could actually hasten the process. When we know a loved one is near death, we plan for the end.

We know from monthly voter registration reports from the secretary of state’s office, voters 18 – 34 years of age are not enamored with political parties. Nearly 31 percent are registered as Non-Partisan and a total just under 40 percent are not members of either the Democratic or Republican Party. These percentages are 10 percent higher than state-wide numbers. And while the percent registered as Non-Partisan has continuously surpassed the percentage registered in the GOP, September 2018 saw for the first time the percent shunning both major political parties higher than the percent registered as Democratic.  First indicator end of life may be nearing.

Entering end of life. Seventeen-year-old pre-registration is now confirming partisan politics has entered its end of life and all “family members”; political parties, legislators, and older voters, need to start planning.

Pre-registration data is maintained by the counties.

In Washoe County, 582 seventeen-year-olds have pre-registered:

NP – 260 (44.67%)

D – 180 (30.93%

R – 118 (20.28%)

O – 24 (4.12%)

In Clark County, 2,041seventeen-year-olds have pre-registered:

D – 819 (40.13%)

NP – 749 (36.70%)

R – 351 (17.19%)

O – 122 (5.98%)

Of the total 2,623 seventeen-year-olds who have pre-registered to vote, slightly more have registered as Non-Partisan (38.47%) than Democratic (38.08%). The Republican Party is far behind at 17.88%. Combined, the Independent American Party, Libertarian Party, Green Party, and any other party account for the remaining 5.57%.

The status quo of politics will no longer work. Low turnout closed partisan primary elections, where a decreasingly small number of party loyalists determine the choice offered to the larger majority will no longer work. Limiting voter choice will no longer work. Legislating by party caucus, refusing to collaborate and truly solve ever-changing problems will no longer work.

Partisan Politics has entered the end of life stage. “Family” needs to start planning. Nevadans for Election Reform has a plan.

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Non-Partisan Continues to Dominate Voter Registration

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

 The voter registration numbers for September 2018 are clear. With a record number of Nevadans now registered to vote, they are abandoning both the Democratic and Republican Party.

Monthly changes in voter share above one-tenth of one percent are big, Changes of one-quarter of one percent are huge. That’s what is happening. Also as is par for the course, the rate of growth of Non-Partisan voters outpaces that of any political party.

The trend is across all demographics; state-wide, Clark County, Washoe County, the rural counties, among those 18 to 34 years of age, and those 55 years of age and older. Changes in congressional, state senate, and state assembly districts also show this continuing trend. Among those 18 to 34 years of age the percentage of Non-Partisan exceeds the percentage of those registered GOP by almost 8 percent and the percentage not affiliated with either major party now exceeds the percent registered as Democratic.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 8,547 1.49 38.33 -0.07
R 6,908 1.37 33.74 -0.10
NP 8,655 2.71 21.62 0.22
IAP 931 0.93 4.36 -0.03
LIB 278 1.86 1.00 0.00
Other 41 0.29 0.94 -0.01
Total not D or R 27.93 0.18

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 6,514 1.49 41.92 -0.09
R 4,361 1.41 29.57 -0.09
NP 6,388 2.74 22.56 0.23
IAP 578 0.92 4.10 -0.03
LIB 192 2.01 0.92 0.00
Other -9 -0.09 0.94 -0.02
Total not D or R 28.52 0.18

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,608 1.77 35.17 -0.05
R 1,471 1.52 37.24 -0.15
NP 1,651 3.13 20.65 0.24
IAP 230 1.15 4.44 -0.03
LIB 47 1.43 1.26 -0.01
Other 50 1.55 1.24 0.00
Total not D or R 27.66 0.20

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 425 0.96 23.00 -0.05
R 1,076 1.08 51.82 -0.04
NP 616 1.81 17.84 0.11
IAP 84 0.59 5.68 -0.02
LIB 39 1.83 1.12 0.01
Other 0 0.00 0.55 -0.01
Total not D or R 25.19 0.09

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 4,102 2.71 38.40 -0.07
R 2,051 2.23 23.19 -0.15
NP 4,725 3.95 30.66 0.31
IAP 536 1.61 4.54 -0.06
LIB 193 2.80 1.75 0.00
Other 51 0.87 1.46 -0.03
Total not D or R 38.41 0.22

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 2,309 0.94 38.83 -0.07
R 3,012 1.16 41.31 0.01
NP 1,602 1.73 14.76 0.09
IAP 195 0.69 4.10 -0.02
LIB 14 0.50 0.44 0.00
Other 2 0.06 0.55 -0.01
Total not D or R 19.86 0.06

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 4 0 0
Republican 4 0 0
Non-Partisan 0 4 0
IAP 4 0 0
LIB 0 1 3
Other 4 0 0

CD 1and CD 2 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. CD 4 returned to this status; 75 percent of the districts.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 20 0 1
Republican 19 2 0
Non-Partisan 0 21 0
IAP 19 1 1
LIB 5 8 8
Other 17 1 3

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was an increase of one from August.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 38 2 2
Republican 26 16 0
Non-Partisan 1 40 1
IAP 26 12 4
LIB 11 23 8
Other 36 3 3

In 32 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This was an increase of one from August. Also, AD 3 changed to where the percentage of Non-Partisan voters now exceeds the percentage registered as Republican.

In two weeks, October 16th, voter registration for the general election closes. It is clear, both the Democratic and Republican Party are losing voter interest. Fewer new voters or voters changing party affiliation are choosing a major political party, instead shunning political parties altogether. Non-Partisan turnout and how they vote will decide several races.

 

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Non-Partisans Will Decide Who Wins in November as Major Party Voter Share Falls

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

 With less than two months before the close of voter registration for the general election, it is becoming apparent neither the Democratic nor Republican Party control the outcome. That honor belongs to those voters registered as Non-Partisan.

An analysis of the voter registration numbers for August 2018 show both major parties losing significant voter share while Non-Partisan registered corresponding gains. The rate of growth for Non-Partisan also over-shadows that of the major parties with the Libertarian Party also showing large growth.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 9,513 1.69 38.40 -0.05
R 7,535 1.51 33.84 -0.10
NP 8,398 2.70 21.40 0.18
IAP 1,272 1.40 4.39 -0.02
LIB 360 2.47 1.00 0.01
Other 7 0.05 0.95 -0.02
Total not D or R     27.74 0.15

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 8.876 2.07 42.01 -0.10
R 5,959 1.96 29.66 -0.10
NP 7,469 3.31 22.33 0.22
IAP 1,171 2.00 4.13 -0.02
LIB 308 3.33 0.91 0.01
Other 15 0.15 0.95 -0.02
Total not D or R     28.32 0.19

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 682 0.76 35.22 -0.05
R 846 0.88 37.38 0.00
NP 672 1.29 20.40 0.08
IAP 91 0.52 4.48 -0.02
LIB 29 0.89 1.27 0.00
Other 2 0.06 1.25 -0.01
Total not D or R     27.40 0.05

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -45 -0.10 23.05 -0.14
R 730 0.74 51.86 0.12
NP 257 0.76 17.72 0.05
IAP -3 -0.03 5.71 -0.03
LIB 23 1.09 1.11 0.01
Other -10 -0.93 0.55 0.00
Total not D or R     25.09 0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 4,663 3.18 38.47 0.03
R 2,039 2.27 23.34 -0.19
NP 4,435 3.85 30.35 0.22
IAP 728 2.67 4.60 -0.02
LIB 236 3.54 1.75 0.01
Other 21 0.36 1.49 -0.04
Total not D or R     38.19 0.17

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 2,243 0.92 38.90 -0.09
R 3,394 1.32 41.29 0.06
NP 1,388 1.52 14.68 0.05
IAP 238 0.80 4.12 -0.01
LIB 34 1.22 0.45 0.00
Other -2 -0.06 0.56 -0.01
Total not D or R     19.81 0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 4 0 0
Republican 3 1 0
Non-Partisan 0 4 0
IAP 3 1 0
LIB 0 4 0
Other 4 0 0

CD 1and CD 2 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 20 1 0
Republican 14 7 0
Non-Partisan 1 20 0
IAP 14 6 1
LIB 2 10 9
Other 18 0 3

In 15 districts (71.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 38 2 2
Republican 26 16 0
Non-Partisan 1 40 1
IAP 26 12 4
LIB 11 23 8
Other 36 3 3

In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

Monthly changes in excess of one-tenth of one percent (0.10) are significant. Changes of nearly one-quarter of one percent (0.25) are rare. Yet we see type of swings in several places through the tracked demographics. If this trend continues through to the close of voter registration in October, the outcome of key races should be interesting.

 

 

 

 

Posted on

Trend Returns; Non-Partisan Gain Share While Major Parties Lose

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

Voter registration statistics for July show the trend returning; Non-Partisan gaining voter share while the major parties lose, substantiating my belief last month that major party increases, especially in the Democratic Party, were the result of voter shock of not being able to vote in some major races in the primary because of minor party or Non-Partisan voter registration. Exceptions to the trend: Democratic gain in Washoe County and GOP gain among in the rural counties and with  voters 55 years of age and older.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 2,057 0.37 38.45 0.00
R 1,610 0.32 33.95 -0.02
NP 1,678 0.54 21.22 0.04
IAP 101 0.06 4.41 -0.01
LIB 69 0.48 0.99 0.00
Other -4 -0.03 0.97 0.00
Total not D or R 27.59 0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 2,958 0.61 42.11 -0.03
R 1,958 0.65 29.75 -0.01
NP 1,961 0.88 22.11 0.04
IAP 425 0.48 4.15 -0.01
LIB 120 1.32 0.91 0.01
Other 102 1.04 0.97 0.00
Total not D or R 28.14 0.04

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -710 -0.78 35.27 0.09
R -1,087 -1.12 37.39 -0.03
NP -505 -0.96 20.32 0.01
IAP -365 -1.58 4.49 -0.03
LIB -68 -2.05 1.27 -0.01
Other -112 -3.36 1.26 -0.03
Total not D or R 27.34 -0.06

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 169 0.38 23.18 -0.05
R 739 0.75 51.74 0.07
NP 222 0.66 17.68 0.01
IAP 41 0.16 5.74 -0.03
LIB 17 0.81 1.11 0.00
Other 6 0.56 0.56 0.00
Total not D or R 25.09 -0.02

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,067 0.72 38.45 0.01
R 382 0.43 23.53 -0.06
NP 1,066 0.93 30.13 0.07
IAP 138 0.63 4.62 0.00
LIB 21 0.32 1.74 -0.01
Other 6 0.10 1.53 -0.01
Total not D or R 38.02 0.05

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 518 0.21 38.99 -0.02
R 1,063 0.42 41.23 0.06
NP 133 0.15 14.63 -0.02
IAP -47 -0.19 4.14 -0.02
LIB -1 -0.04 0.45 0.00
Other 2 0.06 0.57 0.00
Total not D or R 19.79 -0.04

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 4 0 0
Republican 1 3 0
Non-Partisan 0 4 0
IAP 3 0 1
LIB 1 2 1
Other 1 1 2

CD 1and CD 2 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 15 4 2
Republican 6 13 2
Non-Partisan 3 17 1
IAP 16 3 2
LIB 5 10 6
Other 8 9 4

In 15 districts (71.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 29 10 3
Republican 19 22 1
Non-Partisan 7 33 2
IAP 27 10 5
LIB 10 20 12
Other 19 16 7

In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

Going into July, the question was would the major party share gains of June continue. Given the intense voter registration efforts currently being conducted by the parties and candidates, it was possible. The fact the growth does not appear to be continuing reinforces the idea that voters may not share the parties’ visions or current paths and are more comfortable not affiliating with any political party. This also highlights the need for change in how we conduct our elections so the growing number of voter not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican Party are equally represented.

 

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