Are Legislators, Candidates, and Political Parties Ignoring the Future? (Opinion)

I am a Baby Boomer. Since I turned 30, I have looked forward to every new decade of my life, 70 is rapidly approaching. Every year has gotten better and I relish the idea that this will continue.
Since the 1960’s, Baby Boomers have held the distinction of being the largest generation. That changed in 2015. The honor now belongs to the Millennial Generation, those born between 1981 and 1997. This generation is our future. Boomers and to some extent older Generation Xers need to not only accept this but embrace it.
While leading the pack as the most populous generation, Millennials are trailing when it comes to voting. In Nevada, Millennials are 31 percent of the population but make up only 24 percent of registered voters (41 percent of eligible voters are not registered to vote). Since there is a lack of participation in the process it is not surprising that only 4 percent of Nevada legislators are Millennials.
Millennials do not embrace political parties to the extent of Boomers. Nearly 28 percent of Millennials registered to vote are registered as Non-Partisan. This is nine percent higher than the overall state total. It is important to note that prior to the presidential caucus the percentage was close to 30 percent and a clear 10 percent higher than the state.
Millennials are turned off to the political climate. To be encouraged to participate, they want answers not rhetoric. They want to know how elected officials and candidates will address issues important to them. They do not fit the standard party mold or comprise part of the so-called party base. In a study released by Pew Research in September, 2014, 84 percent hold positions that are not on the ideological fringe.
Given they are our future, it makes no sense to not take the steps necessary to get this generation involved, not only as voters but as candidates and elected officials. Holding on to the politics of the past will not serve our communities, our state, or our nation well.
One way Nevada legislators can demonstrate their commitment to engaging the Millennial Generation would be to enact the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA- 2017) during the 2017 legislative session. NEMRA – 2017 will engage not only the Millennial Generation but all voters who feel rejected by the current hyper-partisan political landscape. NEMRA – 2017 will make our electoral process fully inclusive, welcome all voters’ participation at all elections, encourage meaningful discussion of the issues rather than rhetoric and talking points, and demonstrate every vote, not just those from a small portion of each major political party, truly matters.

We can welcome the future and all the promise it holds or stick with the past, leaving our political decisions in the hands of an aging small party base that is not representative of the overall population. The choice is ours and the 2017 Nevada legislature’s to make.

Automatic Voter Registration and NEMRA-2017; Companion Bills?

Approximately 41 percent of eligible voters in Nevada are not registered to vote. Of the 59 percent who are, less than 46 percentvoted in the general election of November, 2014. Or to put it bluntly, 73 percent of eligible voters in Nevada just didn’t care.1
Eligible voters do not register to vote, or do not vote if they are, for basically the same reasons, mostly no interest or lack of time. Missing the registration deadline or not knowing where or how to register are also major reasons for not registering followed closely by lack of knowledge about the candidates or issues, lack of confidence in government, and voting doesn’t make a difference.
 In an attempt to fix low voter registration, states are starting to consider automatically registering eligible voters when they apply for a driver’s license or state identification card. The governors of Oregon and California signed bills in 2015 implementing such a system. Similar bills are pending in 25 states and the District of Columbia. The concept of automatic voter registration (AVR) initially had bipartisan support. However, with the increased partisan rhetoric of the presidential campaigns, support is now aligning along party lines, Democrats in favor and Republicans opposed.
I’ve heard that in keeping with their Nevada Blueprint, Democratic lawmakers in the Silver State plan on filing a bill draft request (BDR) for the 2017 Nevada legislative session seeking to bring AVR to the state. But will automatically registering a person to vote get that person to actually vote or will the impact of AVR be simply to decrease election turnout rates?
For those who fail to register to vote because they missed the deadline or did not know where or how to register, automatic voter registration will resolve their issue, provided they apply for or renew a driver’s license or state identification card. But what about the remaining 75 percent of eligible voters not registered to vote? 
Simply being registered to vote will not convince the person who didn’t register because they were not interested, didn’t want to take time to learn about the candidates or issues, have lost confidence in government, or don’t think their vote matters, to vote. Opponents of AVR stress voting is a personal responsibility. I believe these reasons for not registering support their argument. However, if those voters’ interest were piqued, if they saw government return to being an institution that embraced respectful disagreement and worked towards collaborative consensus, if they were given a reason to learn about the candidates and issues, and saw that their vote did matter, would the likelihood of them becoming active voters increase? The Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act for 2017 (NEMRA – 2017) is a means to make the answer, “yes”.
The current hyper-partisan political environment has turned people off not only to the political parties but to the entire process. A single election held in November using Ranked Choice / Instant Runoff Voting (RCV / IRV) as proposed in NEMRA – 2017 can help reverse this trend. RCV / IRV forces candidates to reach out to a more diverse electorate. Appealing simply to the small party base is no longer a clear path to election. Second-choice votes could be the difference between winning and losing. Voters exposed to RCV / IRV elections have noticed a decrease in the negative tone of campaigns.
The goal of those who support AVR is to remove roadblocks to voting allowing more eligible voters to go to the polls. The goal of RCV / IRV is to return civility to the election and governing process and increase voter participation in elections. These goals are mutually supportive to the benefit of all. Question to Nevada legislators; companion bills?
1, Based on best available data from U.S. Census compared to current Nevada voter registration statistics.

February Voter Registration – No Surprise , Just Major Questions

Voter registration statistics for February, 2016 are in and no one should be surprised. However, the changes in voter share do raise two major questions.
Voter registration efforts in February by the presidential campaigns, major political parties, and candidates were successful in adding another 25,712 active voters to the rolls. Combined with January’s increase, 41,661 new voters registered to vote during the first two months of 2016, an increase of 3.48 percent. The Republican Party increased voter share at a higher rate than the Democratic Party state-wide, in Clark County, in the rural counties, and among those 55 years old and over. The Democratic Party out did the GOP in Washoe County and with 18 – 34 year olds. Again, not surprising, the increase in voter share of the two major political parties came at the expense of voter share of Non-Partisan and the minor political parties.
Did the increase in voter share have a positive impact on caucus participation? The answer is mixed. The Republican Party had their highest caucus turnout since the parties went to the caucus system in 2008. That’s not saying much though as only 18 percent of registered Republicans caucused. On the Democratic side, 17 percent of registered Democrats attended the caucus. This was down approximately nine percent from 2008 when there was not an incumbent president running. Combined, only 13 percent of the total electorate bothered to participate. And here lies the questions: Does increased voter share lead to increased voter turnout beyond the small party base? Why should any voter have to compromise their principles, beliefs, or personal integrity in order to cast a ballot?
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
13,851
2.94
39.46
0.31
R
14,212
3.36
35.58
0.42
NP
-1,407
-0.60
18.93
-0.53
Other
-944
-1.26
6.03
-0.20
Total not D or R
24.96
-0.73
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
9,914
2.83
43.19
0.25
R
8,758
3.44
31.53
0.38
NP
-304
-0.18
19.67
-0.47
Other
-296
-0.63
5.61
-0.16
Total not D or R
25.28
-0.63
Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
2,839
3.49
35.87
0.52
R
2,795
3.15
39.01
0.44
NP
-656
-1.50
18.32
-0.65
Other
-401
-2.45
6.80
-0.30
Total not D or R
25.12
-0.95
Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
1,098
2.78
25.27
0.20
R
2,659
3.32
51.65
0.69
NP
-447
-1.71
16.04
-0.59
Other
-247
-2.14
7.04
-0.30
Total not D or R
23.08
-0.89
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
7,690
7.11
39.16
1.10
R
4,205
5.86
25.67
0.43
NP
-110
-0.13
27.73
-1.17
Other
-140
-2.14
7.44
-0.42
Total not D or R
35.17
-1.59
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
2,582
1.21
40.15
-0.03
R
5,394
2.48
41.32
0.49
NP
-787
-1.07
13.53
-0.32
Other
-459
-1.67
5.00
-0.15
Total not D or R
18.53
-0.47
The above trend is similar when looking at individual state assembly and senate districts. In the senate, the changes were small still leaving 11 districts (52.38%) where the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or total not registered as either Democratic or Republican either exceeds or is within five percent of one of the major political parties. In the assembly, 21 (50.00%) districts have the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or total not registered as either Democratic or Republican exceeding or within five percent of one of the major political parties. This is a decrease of four, however, those four districts do not fall into this category by less than one-tenth of one percent.
Does increased voter share lead to increased voter turnout beyond the small party base? Looking at the numbers for February, the answer has to be no. Given recent primary election turnout, it is doubtful this will change in June. Leading Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston summed it up in his March 2, 2016 Ralston ReportsTrump Effect will continue to resonate in Nevada” when he says: The numbers do not lie. The caucus turnout was 75,000, which more than doubled what it was four years ago but still represents less than 18 percent of the GOP electorate. Compare that to the last two cycles: In the 2014 primary, it was 19 percent, the same as it was in 2012. No reason not to believe the June electorate will be similar to the caucus electorate.”
 Why should any voter have to compromise their principles, beliefs, or personal integrity in order to cast a ballot?  The willingness not to compromise their principals, beliefs, or personal integrity is a high standard we hold those we are voting for to. Voters should not have to compromise theirs. Expanding the voter pool and giving voters a reason to go to the polls, not simply increasing voter share, will increase voter turnout. That is what the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017) proposes to accomplish.

Ranked Choice / Instant Runoff Voting Could Change Campaign Spending

The overwhelming perception, and there’s much truth behind it, is that money plays the most important role in American politics, from the lowest level campaigns and policies to those of national and global importance. Whether that power is rightfully earned or is the result of voters, candidates, and elected officials unwittingly bestowing it is a question up for debate. Given the apparent level of distain for the influence of money in our political system, is there a way to curtail it?
While data is extremely scarce given the relatively short period of time the process has been used in elections, there is a belief that Ranked Choice / Instant Runoff voting (RCV / IRV) could provide a path towards loosening the grasp of money on our political and governing system.
In a March, 2014 MinnPost opinion piece, former Minnesota United States Senator David Durenberger explains how. RCV / IRV changes the dynamic of elections and policymaking possibly reducing the need for excessive dollars. His opinion cannot be discounted.  Could voters be ready to cause a shift away from money’s influence in state and local races?
In state and local races, national super political action committees (Super PACs) are increasing their spending in an attempt to influence election results. The goal is to elect candidates that share their positions on national issues. This can redirect campaign debate away from important local and state issues towards the hyper-partisan national debate. However, this needn’t be the case.
Elections where voters go to the polls once, for a general election using RCV / IRV, requires candidates speak to a wider audience. Appealing to the small party base as is done in a low turnout primary will no longer ensure election. They must focus on appealing to all voters, general election mode, but with the added advantage that besides first-choice votes, they are looking for second-choice votes that could be the difference between winning or losing. According to Senator Durenberger, this type of campaign requires increased use of forums, town halls, and knocking on doors. Talking directly to voters, addressing the issues, is what wins the election. Attack ads and mudslinging will not guarantee victory on Election Day. Meeting and speaking with voters costs less. A candidate or incumbent running for re-election is a safe district, one where voter registration overwhelmingly favors one party over another, may still have an advantage, however, given the continuing growth of voters registered as Non-Partisan, even safe districts are not so safe. At the end of January, 2016, the number of Nevada voters registered as Non-Partisan or when combined with those registered in a minor party either exceeded or was within five percent of those registered as either Democratic or Republican in 11 of the 21 (52.38%) state senate districts and 25 of the 42 (59.52%) state assembly districts.
I’ve been told that holding a single election in November using RCV / IRV will increase the money needed to be spent because a candidate in a safe district has to be in general election mode, appeal to the greater electorate. The ability to win the election in the primary, where the focus is on only the smaller party base would not be present. I’ve also been told that large donors such as major companies would have to change their donation practices, either increasing the amount of money they allocate to political purposes or reducing the amount of individual donations. Supposedly these donors give to several candidates in the primary election so their chance of having influence following the general election is increased. I do not refute the validity of these statements. However, is it possible the opposite would happen? Less cash available across the board would require candidates to conduct their campaigns as alluded to by Senator Durenberger. RCV / IRV could actually decrease the influence of money in our political system. It is also possible that because RCV / IRV has the potential to increase interest in the election, the amount raised from individual voters could grow.  
Change is not easy. But where would we be today if society had not embraced the many changes that have occurred over the past 50 years? Baby Boomers (my generation) gave way to Gen X and Millennials (our children and possibly grandchildren). The Millennials, those 18 – 34 years of age are now the largest generation. They also are registering to vote as Non-Partisan at much higher rate than other generations. All indications are they are not embracing and will not embrace the politics of the past.  If our cities, counties, state, and nation are to make progress, the younger generations must believe their participation now will make the difference between success and failure.  
In one year, February, 2017, the Nevada legislature can take a major step in showing the generations that are our future their opinions matter, that their participation in our governing processes is important by enacting the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017).  

Caucus Time – Voter Registration for January Favors Major Parties – UPDATE

Voter registration statistics for January, 2016 are in. Not surprising is that given the emphasis on the presidential caucuses and voter registration efforts by both the Democratic and Republican Parties along with their presidential candidates, the numbers show movement in their favor.
During the month of January, 2016, the state gained 15,949 voters over the previous month. The following tables show the impact.
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
% Difference in Voter Share
D
7,142
1.34
39.15
0.08
R
6,720
1.54
35.16
0.09
NP
1,810
0.78
19.46
-0.11
Other
277
0.37
6.23
-0.06
Total not D or R
25.69
-0.17
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
% Difference in Voter Share
D
5,860
1.70
42.94
0.05
R
4,767
1.91
31.15
0.10
NP
1,698
1.04
20.14
-0.11
Other
330
0.71
5.77
-0.05
Total not D or R
25.91
-0.16
Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
% Difference in Voter Share
D
925
1.15
35.35
0.15
R
914
1.04
38.57
0.12
NP
-81
-0.19
18.97
-0.17
Other
-93
-0.57
7.10
-0.09
Total not D or R
26.07
-0.26
  
Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
% Difference in Voter Share
D
357
0.91
25.07
-0.03
R
1,039
1.31
50.96
0.13
NP
193
0.74
16.63
-0.05
Other
40
0.35
7.34
-0.05
Total not D or R
23.97
-0.10
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
% Difference in Voter Share
D
3.628
3.47
38.06
0.41
R
1,692
2.41
25.24
0.01
NP *
1,060
1.31
28.90
-0.30
Other
179
0.81
7.80
-0.12
Total not D or R
36.70
-0.42
*NOTE – Non-Partisan registration exceeds Republican by 3.66%
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
% Difference in Voter Share
D
1,538
0.72
40.18
-0.08
R
3,154
1.47
40.83
0.22
NP
200
0.27
13.85
-0.09
Other
-32
-0.12
5.15
-0.05
Total not D or R
19.00
-0.14
The above trend is similar when looking at individual state assembly and senate districts. In spite of the changes, there are still 11 (52.38%) state senate districts and 25 (59.52%) state assembly districts where the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or total not registered as either Democratic or Republican either exceeds or is within 5 percent of one of the major political parties.
Will state and local candidates be able to maintain this shift in voter registration following the caucuses up to the June primary election? Will any gains in registration equate to increased voter turnout? Only time will tell. What is certain is that the importance of the registered Non-Partisan voter cannot be ignored.

UPDATE
Interesting statistic from Ralston Reports on February 10, 2016. Jon Ralston looked at the annual growth in overall registration for the year preceding the last three presidential elections, 2007, 2011, and 2015. The rate of growth of Non-Partisan voters far outdistanced the growth of either the Democratic or Republican Party. As shown below, the rate of growth for Non-Partisan increased while the rate of growth for both major parties decreased. Ralston did not include minor parties in his analysis.
2007
Party
Increase in # Voters
% Share of Increase
D
19,782
47.69
R
14,316
34.51
NP
7,384
17.80
Total
41,482
2011
Party
Increase in # Voters
% Share of Increase
Change in Rate of Increase
D
15,898
37.76
-9.93
R
15,153
36.00
+1.49
NP
11,046
26.24
+8.44
Total
42,097
2015

Party
Increase in # Voters
% Share of Increase
Change in Rate of Increase
D
33,677
36.58
-1.18
R
31,045
33.73
-2.27
NP
27,331
29.69
+3.45
Total
92,053

True in 2014, True Now – Hyper Partisanship Standing In The Way of Progress

In an update to their 2014 study, The Next America: Boomers, Millennials, and the Looming Generational Showdown,” to be released this week, the Pew Research Center along with their former executive vice president Paul Taylor present data that should not surprise anyone. The hyper-partisan divide infecting our political structure is not only still active, it may have gotten worse.
Some highlights:
The use of partisan ideology as criteria for personal relationships is increasing. Added to this is an increasing level of distrust, denial of opposing facts, and doubt of motives and love of country. The authors observe “It’s as if they belong not to rival parties but alien tribes.”
The two major parties are becoming more demographically homogeneous. As the country grows less white and social tolerance gains acceptance among the younger yet largest generation, the shrinking party bases are becoming less inclusive. The Republican Party base is now whiter, older, more religious, and socially conservative. In contrast, the Democratic Party base is younger, racially diverse, secular, and more acceptant of social differences. This homogeneity is further highlighted in the growing generational gap in voting trends.
 Partisan beliefs continue to be a major and growing consideration in determining where we chose to live, who we chose as friends, who we marry, and where we get our information.
As the partisan divide becomes wider, more voters are choosing to abandon political parties in general. While this trend is present in all generations, it is most prevalent among the millennial generation, those between the ages of 18 and 34. This becomes more important since this generation is now the largest. As I post each month, this is true in Nevada where the percentage among this age group registered to vote as Non-Partisan is 10 percent higher than the overall state percentage.
Those wanting elected officials to collaborate, work together, and compromise are the new “silent majority”. However, in this age of social media and the accompanying pontification, there is no leader able to overcome the volume of the hyper-partisan extremes.
Election turnout plays a major role in allowing this partisan divide to survive. Historically, older voters tend to vote in non-presidential years in far greater numbers that younger voters. With ideological extremes dominating, this has created the large swings we have witnessed; a Democratic president re-elected and a strongly conservation congress maintaining a majority on the national level and a shift to the right in state governments
I posted two articles highlighting the growing partisan divide in 2014. Those posts are available hereand here. As shown in this updated work by Pew Research and Paul Taylor, this divide is widening, negatively impacting our political systems and overall society.

The Nevada legislature can take a step to reverse this polarizing trend when they next meet in February, 2017 by enacting the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act

Nine States and Washington, D.C. Share a Spot on the Political Stage

Georgia, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, and the District of Columbia. These nine states and our nation’s capital currently share a place on the political stage.
Nineteen. That is the number of bills dealing with the implementation of ranked choice / instant runoff voting (RCV / IRV) currently under consideration in the nine state legislatures and Washington D.C. city council. Voters in Maine are not waiting for the legislation. A ballot initiative implementing RCV / IRV for all state and federal elected offices except President of the United States is on the ballot this November.
Legislators in nine states and the District of Columbia city council realize that just talking about the heightened level of political polarization does not solve the problem. They realize that to effectively govern, to do the job they were elected to do, requires people with opposing views to work together, respectfully listen to all opinions, and then develop solutions to the problems facing their constituents. To create the environment where that can take place takes action. They have not just talked. They have acted.
 In 2017 when the next regular session of the Nevada legislature convenes, state legislators can join the ranks of those who choose action. By enacting the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017), lawmakers will address the issues of:
  •         Political polarization
  •          Low voter turnout
  •          Strategic voting
  •          Voter dissatisfaction  

NEMRA – 2017 will also contribute to solving another major problem facing Nevada’s elections. Our voting equipment and software is old and nearing obsolescence. Both will need to be replaced in the very near future. By eliminating at least $3 – 4 million from the cost of administering elections, NEMRA – 2017 will allow county governments and the legislature to redirect those funds towards this critical need.
Nine and nineteen. That is only a piece of election related legislation pending in the states. At present there are 567 bills dealing with issues such as absentee ballots, voter registration, internet voting, voting by mail, types of primary elections, and the creation of committees and task forces to look into voting-related topics pending in various states.

The issue of election reform has the attention of state legislators and voters. Nevada legislators do not have to wait until 2017 to act.  A bill draft request (BDR) can be filed now. 

Will Voters in South Dakota and Maine Set the Stage for the Nevada Legislature?

In November 2016, voters in South Dakota and Maine will have the opportunity to change the way elections are held in their state. The changes, placed on the ballot by initiative petition, recognize the growing numbers of voters not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican Party and the importance of ending the hyper-partisanship that dominates much of the political landscape.
In South Dakota, voters will decide whether to change the state’s Constitution, replacing the current partisan primary elections with a non-partisan primary and general election. Under the proposed constitutional amendment, all candidates will be listed on the primary ballot without party affiliation or status as an independent. All voters, regardless of party affiliation or lack thereof will be allowed to vote. Party affiliation or status as an independent will also not be listed on the general election ballot. The right of any persons to belong to a political party is maintained as is the right of political parties to endorse or support a candidate or candidates. Public funds may not be used by the parties for these purposes.  Currently, 21 percent of South Dakota voters are not registered in either the Democratic or Republican Party. The Democratic Party currently has 33 percent voter share while the Republican Party has 46 percent.
In Maine, 44 percent (39 Independent / 5 other) of registered voters do not identify as either Democratic or Republican.  Voter share for the major parties currently is 33 percent and 23 percent respectively. This measure has roots in the state legislature. The initiative was started by a current and former member of that body. Supporters gathered enough signatures so voters will decide whether or not to eliminate the state’s closed primary system and instead use a single general election using Rank Choice / Instant Run-off voting (RCV / IRV).  This is similar to the proposal now being presented to Nevada legislators.
It’s too soon to know what voters in South Dakota and Maine will decide. Enough voters signified support by signing the petitions placing the measures on the ballot.

The growing trend of dissatisfaction with the two major political parties is not likely to be reversed in the near future. To successfully govern may require elected officials to adopt systems that create an environment where collaboration and cooperation are rewarded by increased voter approval. The 2017 session of the Nevada legislature can do its part, by enacting the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act – 2017 (NEMRA – 2017). 

2015 Voter Registration – A Good Year for GOP and Non-Partisan, Not True for Democrats

By all measurements, across all demographics, 2015 was not a good year for the Democratic Party in Nevada. While the Republican Party and Non-Partisan gained voter share, the Democratic Party lost share. In some areas, the loss was over one percent. Conversely, Republican gains also topped the one percent level. Minor parties also saw a loss. Figures are from December, 2014 and December, 2015 Secretary of State voter registration statistics.
State-wide Percent Voter Share
2014
2015
Diff
D
39.71
39.08
-0.64
R
34.53
35.07
0.54
NP
19.33
19.56
0.24
O
6.43
6.29
-0.14
 Clark County Percent Voter Share
2014
2015
Diff
D
43.46
42.88
-0.58
R
30.53
31.05
0.52
NP
20.02
20.24
0.22
O
5.99
5.82
-0.17
Washoe County Percent Voter Share
2014
2015
Diff
D
35.53
35.21
-0.32
R
38.38
38.45
0.07
NP
18.72
19.14
0.42
O
7.36
7.20
-0.16
Rural Counties Percent Voter Share
2014
2015
Diff
D
26.28
25.10
-1.18
R
49.70
50.83
1.13
NP
16.61
16.68
0.07
O
7.41
7.39
-0.02
18 – 34 Year Old Percent Voter Share
2014
2015
Diff
D
37.98
37.65
-0.33
R
24.62
25.23
0.61
NP
29.18
29.20
0.02
O
8.22
7.92
-0.30
55+ Year Old Percent Voter Share
2014
2015
Diff
D
40.89
40.25
-0.64
R
40.01
40.61
0.60
NP
13.84
13.94
0.10
O
5.26
5.20
-0.06
Assembly Districts Percent Voter Share
Average Diff
High
Low
Note
D
-0.54
0.22
-1.73
Only 3 districts gained share
R
0.47
2.28
-1.05
Only 4 districts lost share
NP
0.23
1.17
-1.19
Only 6 districts lost share
O
-0.15
0.33
-0.72
Only 8 districts gained share
Senate Districts Percent Voter Share
Average Diff
High
Low
Note
D
-0.55
-0.24
-0.95
All districts lost share. Low in 2 districts
R
0.45
1.17
-0.52
Only 2 districts lost share
NP
0.24
0.88
-0.18
Only 4 districts lost share
O
-0.14
0.29
-0.42
Only 2 districts gained share
Congressional District Percent Voter Share
Average Diff
High
Low
Note
D
-0.53
-0.40
-0.86
CD1 & 2 shared low. High CD4
R
0.43
0.72
0.23
High CD4 Low CD2
NP
0.24
0.33
0.10
High CD3 Low CD1
O
-0.14
-0.09
-0.20
High CD4 Low CD3
These figures are not surprising. Monthly analyses posted on this blog have consistently shown growth of voters registered as Non-Partisan. While the monthly data has shown both the Democratic and Republican Parties losing voter share; the GOP has shown infrequent gains, recent voter file maintenance has benefited the GOP.
The Presidential Caucuses are one month away, the primary election a mere five. Will the campaigns foster interest that equates to increased partisan voter registration? I’ll be tracking. If registration in the parties increases significantly, will that result in higher primary election turn-out? We’ll know on June 14th.

Nevada’s Aging Voting Machines; NEMRA – 2017 Provides Part of the Solution

Electronic voting systems in 43 states, including Nevada, are at least 10 years old. These systems, both hardware and software are approaching, or have already exceeded their lifespan. The potential for mechanical breakdown and technological failure possibly compromising the voting process and / or election results is great. This is the conclusion of an extensive report recently released by the Brennan Center for Justice.
Nevada election officials and legislators are well aware of the situation. On July 22, 2014 a group of legislators, legislative staff, and state and county election officials met to discuss the status of the state’s aging voting machines and ways to address the issue. As long as vendors continue to support the machines and software, repairs can be made as needed. However, as technology improves, vendors stop supporting older versions. This has already happened for some software.  Prolonging the inevitable is not an acceptable plan of action. Legislators need to make voting system upgrade and replacement a priority if we are to avoid an election disaster.
Given recent low voter turnout, it’s hard to predict how many voters will participate in the 2016 general election. However, given voters will be choosing a president, a replacement for Senator Harry Reid, and deciding whether to legalize recreational marijuana and stricter background checks for the purchase of firearms, I’d expect at least 75% turnout, the average for presidential yearelections, if not higher. Will 2016 be the year Nevada’s voting machines decide to really show their age?
The task for legislators in the 2017 Nevada legislative session will be to find the money stream to pay for software upgrades and eventual replacement of the physical equipment.  The Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act – 2017(NEMRA – 2017) provides one source of funding.  By eliminating at least $3 – 4 million from the cost of administering elections each election cycle, NEMRA – 2017 would allow that money to be allocated for needed software upgrades and / or towards total system replacement.
Providing funds to avoid an election catastrophe is not the only benefit of enacting NEMRA – 2017. By implementing the reforms proposed, Nevada legislators would be putting a process in place that would increase participation and voter turnout while not infringing on the rights of political parties. There is a potential the legislation could strengthen the parties themselves.

The decision for legislators is not “if” to act, it’s “when”. Nevada cannot risk the consequences of an election system failure; long delays at the polls, voters unable to cast votes, votes not recorded or recorded incorrectly, any resulting lawsuits. NEMRA – 2017 is part of the solution.