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By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

 The Democratic Party experienced a large ballot box victory in November, yet as 2019 begins, the party continues to experience a decline in voter share. The voter registration data for January 2019 just released by the secretary of state shows the Democratic Party losing voter share across all demographics tracked. At the same time Non-Partisan and minor party registration increased share and the GOP was mixed. The same holds true for the rate of growth; the number of new voters registering in each category.

State-Wide

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	2,374	0.39%	38.35%	-0.04%
R	2,283	0.43%	33.39%	-0.02%
NP	2,416	0.70%	21.99%	0.05%
IAP	619	0.80%	4.36%	0.01%
LIB	121	0.76%	1.01%	0.00%
Other	-52	-0.37%	0.89%	-0.01%
Total not D or R			28.25%	0.05

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	2,400	0.52%	41.94%	-0.07%
R	2,323	0.72%	29.26%	0.01%
NP	2,261	0.89%	22.89%	0.05%
IAP	589	1.16%	4.11%	0.02%
LIB	105	1.03%	0.92%	0.00%
Other	-42	-0.43%	0.87%	-0.01%
Total not D or R			28.80%	0.06%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	38	0.04%	35.10%	-0.02%
R	45	0.04%	36.87%	-0.02%
NP	140	0.24%	21.13%	0.03%
IAP	47	0.34%	4.43%	0.01%
LIB	15	0.44%	1.27%	0.00%
Other	-9	-0.27%	1.20%	0.00%
Total not D or R			28.04%	0.04%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	-64	-0.14%	22.78%	-0.01%
R	-85	-0.08%	51.71%	0.00%
NP	15	0.04%	18.15%	0.02%
IAP	-17	-0.15%	5.68%	0.00%
LIB	1	0.04%	1.13%	0.00%
Other	-1	-0.09%	0.55%	0.00%
Total not D or R			25.51%	0.02%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	1,802	1.08%	38.67%	-0.03%
R	1,266	1.29%	22.78%	0.03%
NP	1,549	1.16%	30.96%	0.00%*
IAP	390	1.56%*	4.53%	0.02%*
LIB	106	1.43%	1.73%	0.00%
Other	-19	-0.32%	1.34%	-0.02%
Total not D or R			38.55%	0.00%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

• Given this demographic, were these voters believing they were registering as “independent”; should have registered as Non-Partisan?

55+

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	489	0.19%	38.67%	-0.05%
R	860	0.32%	41.27%	0.00%
NP	587	0.60%	14.97%	0.04%
IAP	215	0.72%	4.12%	0.02%
LIB	19	0.66%	0.44%	0.00%
Other	2	0.06%	0.53%	0.00%
Total not D or R			20.06%	0.06%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	4	0	0
Republican	2	2	0
Non-Partisan	0	4	0
IAP	0	3	1
LIB	0	0	4
Other	3	0	1

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	18	0	3
Republican	9	9	3
Non-Partisan	1	19	1
IAP	2	15	4
LIB	1	8	12
Other	1	19	1

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	37	3	2
Republican	22	18	2
Non-Partisan	4	36	2
IAP	10	30	2
LIB	6	14	22
Other	22	1	19

In 34 districts (81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

Nearly 30 percent of voters in Nevada are currently not registered to vote in either the Democratic or Republican Party; just under 40 percent for those between the ages of 18 and 34.

During the November election, voters passed automatic voter registration. The necessary action to implement this process has begun. It is more than likely this process will dramatically increase the percent of voters registered as Non-Partisan, potentially making that category the largest segment of voters. A bill to allow same-day voter registration has been filed for consideration during this legislative session. If that passes, the impact on party and Non-Partisan voter share may or may not be significant. However, given the long-term trend the assumption must be it will follow along the same lines. The question then becomes are these voters systemically excluded or does Nevada ensure all voters have the opportunity to participate fully in the election process?

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

December was a month for routine voter list maintenance, so while the month to month trend showed mostly downward movement, the real story is the change that occurred during the full year. Bottom line, 2018 belonged to Non-Partisans.

State-Wide

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %	2017 – 2018 % Voter Share Change
D	-1,682	-0.28%	38.39%	-0.02%	-0.32
R	-630	-0.12%	33.41%	0.04%	-0.09
NP	-1,067	-0.31%	21.95%	-0.02%	0.64
IAP	-261	0.02%	4.35%	0.01%	-0.07
LIB	-25	-0.16%	1.00%	0.00%	0.03
Other	-249	-1.72%	0.90%	-0.01%	-0.20
Total not D or R			28.20%	-0.02%	0.40

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %	2017 – 2018 % Voter Share Change
D	-2,295	-0.49%	42.01%	0.03%	-0.29
R	-1,578	-0.48%	29.25%	0.02%	0.00
NP	-1,925	-0.75%	22.85%	-0.04%	0.54
IAP	-515	-0.48%	4.09%	0.00%	-0.05
LIB	-74	-0.72%	0.92%	0.00%	0.04
Other	-224	-2.24%	0.88%	-0.02%	-0.24
Total not D or R			28.74%	-0.06%	0.28

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %	2017 – 2018 % Voter Share Change
D	401	0.42%	35.12%	-0.02%	-0.04
R	339	0.34%	36.89%	-0.05%	-0.80
NP	430	0.75%	21.10%	0.06%	1.08
IAP	107	0.91%	4.42%	0.02%	-0.11
LIB	32	0.94%	1.26%	0.01%	0.01
Other	-34	-1.02%	1.21%	-0.02%	-0.14
Total not D or R			27.99%	0.08%	0.83

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %	2017 – 2018 % Voter Share Change
D	212	0.47%	22.80%	-0.05%	-0.85
R	609	0.59%	51.71%	-0.06%	0.35
NP	428	1.19%	18.13%	0.09%	0.61
IAP	121	1.07%	5.68%	0.02%	-0.13
LIB	17	0.76%	1.13%	0.00%	0.05
Other	9	0.83%	0.55%	0.00%	-0.03
Total not D or R			25.49%	0.11%	0.51

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %	2017 – 2018 % Voter Share Change
D	-1,176	-0.70%	38.70%	0.02%	0.11
R	-693	-0.70%	22.75%	0.01%	-0.41
NP	-1,059	-0.79%	30.96%	-0.01%	0.73
IAP	-311	-0.66%	4.51%	0.00%	-0.03
LIB	-22	-0.30%	1.72%	0.01%	0.03
Other	-159	-2.64%	1.36%	-0.03%	-0.43
Total not D or R			38.55%	-0.03%	0.30

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %	2017 – 2018 % Voter Share -Change
D	50	0.02%	38.72%	-0.05%	-0.60
R	525	0.19%	41.28%	0.02%	0.61
NP	228	0.23%	14.93%	0.01%	0.16
IAP	91	0.40%	4.10%	0.01%	-0.09
LIB	6	0.21%	0.44%	0.00%	-0.01
Other	-23	-0.66%	0.53%	0.00%	-0.07
Total not D or R			20.00%	0.02%	-0.01

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	1	2	1
Republican	1	2	1
Non-Partisan	3	1	0
IAP	0	2	2
LIB	1	0	3
Other	4	0	0

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	6	13	2
Republican	11	8	2
Non-Partisan	12	7	2
IAP	3	11	7
LIB	5	6	10
Other	18	1	2

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	13	26	3
Republican	22	18	2
Non-Partisan	23	16	3
IAP	12	23	7
LIB	13	12	17
Other	32	1	9

In 34 districts (81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is a gain of one over November.

As we get ready to start the 2019 legislative session, will the voter registration trend have any impact of the tone of the session? Will voters continue to be dissolutioned by the two major parties? How will the veto-proof majority in one chamber and near veto-proof in the other impact the rhetoric? We’ll know in a couple of months.

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

 Given the Democratic Party dominance in the general election, it is not surprising to see November 2018 voter registration mirror the election results; Democratic and Non-Partisan gains and GOP loses.

Except for the rural counties. The Democratic Party gained voter share while the Republican Party experienced significant loses. This trend shows not only in tracked demographics but also across state congressional and legislative districts. And while the number of active registered voters in Nevada increased by 25,000, the Republican Party saw a much lower rate of growth than either the Democratic Party or Non-Partisan.

State-Wide

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	10,975	1.83	38.41	0.09
R	6,068	1.16	33.37	-0.15
NP	6,297	1.84	21.96	0.05
IAP	1,727	1.77	4.34	0.01
LIB	310	1.99	1.00	0.00
Other	220	1.55	0.91	0.00
Total not D or R			28.21	0.06

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	9,883	2.16	41.98	0.09
R	4,757	1.48	29.22	-0.13
NP	5,195	2.08	22.89	0.03
IAP	1365	2.12	4.09	0.01
LIB	242	2.42	0.92	0.00
Other	176	1.79	0.90	0.00
Total not D or R			28.80	0.04

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	835	0.88	35.14	0.01
R	537	0.54	36.93	-0.11
NP	684	1.21	21.04	0.08
IAP	209	1.14	4.40	0.01
LIB	43	1.28	1.26	0.01
Other	31	0.94	1.23	0.00
Total not D or R			27.93	0.10

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	257	0.57	22.85	-0.06
R	774	0.76	51.77	-0.03
NP	418	1.18	18.04	0.07
IAP	115	1.03	5.66	0.01
LIB	25	1.12	1.13	0.00
Other	13	1.21	0.55	0.00
Total not D or R			25.38	0.08

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	3,807	2.32	38.68	0.13
R	1,403	1.44	22.74	-0.12
NP	2,551	1.93	30.97	-0.01
IAP	604	2.08	4.50	0.01
LIB	126	1.72	1.72	0.00
Other	79	1.33	1.39	-0.01
Total not D or R			38.58	-0.01

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	3,249	1.30	38.77	0.03
R	2,776	1.04	41.25	-0.08
NP	1,415	1.47	14.91	0.04
IAP	496	1.52	4.09	0.01
LIB	47	1.65	0.44	0.00
Other	47	1.37	0.53	0.00
Total not D or R			19.98	0.05

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	0	4	0
Republican	4	0	0
Non-Partisan	0	4	0
IAP	0	4	0
LIB	0	4	0
Other	0	0	4

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	5	15	1
Republican	21	0	0
Non-Partisan	4	15	2
IAP	3	11	7
LIB	1	9	11
Other	4	2	15

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	11	28	3
Republican	40	1	1
Non-Partisan	10	32	0
IAP	10	22	10
LIB	5	17	20
Other	11	12	19

In 33 districts (7857%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

Non-Partisan voters are now 22 percent of active registered voters with 28 percent not registered as either Democratic or Republican. In the largest voting bloc, Baby Boomers, 20 percent are not affiliated with either major party, 15 percent Non-Partisan and among those between the ages of 18 and 34, these number are 39 percent and 31 percent respectfully. Only five percent separate the Democratic and Republican Party statewide and in what was once a solid GOP county, Washoe, less than two percent separate the two major parties; 28 percent are not affiliated with either party with 21 percent Non-Partisan.

Nevada voters just approved automatic voter registration. Now whenever an eligible person does business at the Department of Motor Vehicles they will be automatically registered to vote or if they are already registered their registration will be updated (if needed) unless they specifically say “no”. Because of the way the process is written, the number of Non-Partisan voters is expected to rise significantly. Only time will tell but will Non-Partisans become the largest segment of voters by 2020?

 

 

 

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

Over 900,000 Nevadans cast ballots during the general election of 2018; 62 percent of active registered voters. While the Democratic Party is claiming their voter outreach efforts led to victory and the Republican Party is trying to figure out what went wrong; some party leaders are going as far as to claim voter fraud, the outcome of the election, either margin of victory or determining which candidate won, clearly was dependent on the votes of the Non-Partisan voter.

There’s no question that Democratic voters learned their lesson from 2014 when state-wide turnout was only 45.5 percent and the Republican party won all state constitutional offices along with control of both houses of the state legislature. This time, Democratic candidates won all but one constitutional office and the party extended its majority earned in 2016 in both chambers of the legislature; a veto-proof majority in the assembly

Turnout is a major factor in the outcome of any election. However, with both the Democratic and Republican Party each holding less than 40 percent share of active voters (38.32 and 33.52 percent respectively) it is the 28.15 percent (21.91 percent Non-Partisan and 6.24 percent minor party), not registered to either major party that determined the outcome of many races. This is important not only because both the Democratic and Republican Party, with very minor exception, lose voter share each month while Non-Partisan voter share increases but also because voters passed Automatic Voter Registration (AVR). Because voters are automatically registered as Non-Partisan unless they specify a political party, the percentage of Non-Partisan voters will most likely increase, perhaps significantly.

In 16 races, Non-Partisan voters clearly determined the winner

Position	Winner	Difference in Party Registration	Percent Non-Partisan	Margin of Victory	Percent vote over Party Registration
Secretary of State	R	D +4.8%	21.9%	0.65%	R: 15.4% D: 10%
Treasurer:	D	D +4.8%	21.9%	0.64%	D: 9.3% R: 13.4%
Attorney General:	D	D +4.8%	21.9%	0.48%	D: 8.9% R: 13.2%

 

Position	Winner	Difference in Party Registration	Percent Non-Partisan	Margin of Victory	Percent vote over Party Registration
Congressional District 3	D	D +1.6%	22.8%	9.01%	D: 15.4% R: 8%
State Senate District 8	D	D +1%	21.9%	3.18%	D: 15.9% R: 12.7%
State Senate District 20	R	R +0.58%	22.4%	3.18%	D: 15.9% R: 12.7%
State Assembly District 2:	R	R +4.47%	22%	3.84%	R: 13.5% D: 14.1%
State Assembly District 4:	D	R +0.07%	21.5%	0.38%	D: 12.8% R: 12.4%
State Assembly District 12:	D	D +13.84%	22.2%	10.93%	D: 10.8% R: 13.7%
State Assembly District 31:	D	R +5.79%	19.7%	3.8%	D 18.1% R: 8.5%
State Assembly District 37	D	D +0.6%	20.4%	0.42%	D: 12.9% R: 13.1%

In Washoe County, all partisan county-wide races were determined by Non-Partisan. In the county, the Republican Party holds a 1.93 percent advantage over the Democratic Party (37.05% to 35.12%) Non-Partisan has 20.96% voter share, minor parties 6.87 (27.83 percent not affiliated with either major party. Important to note that even though Washoe County voted more Democratic, for county-wide offices, Non-Partisans went more for Republican incumbents

Position	Winner	Difference in Party Registration	Percent Non-Partisan	Margin of Victory	Percent vote over Party Registration
Assessor:	R	R +1.93%	21%	0.30%	R: 13.1% D: 14.7%
Public Administrator:	R	R +1.93%	21%	5.7%	R: 15.8% D: 12%
Recorder:	D	R +1.93%	21%	4.06%	D: 16.9% R: 10.9%
Treasurer:	R	R +1.93%	21%	5.6%	R: 15.7% D: 12%
Clerk:	R	R +1.93%	21%	10.7%	R: 18.3% D: 9.5%

In most other races, the Non-Partisan vote did not materially impact the outcome of the race. In those races, the Non-Partisan vote either slightly decreased the margin of victory but well within the winning party registration advantage or increased the margin of victory.

What made Non-Partisans favor the Democratic candidates this election? Was their vote a vote against President Trump? Did the Democratic Party do a better job of addressing the issues that they consider important? Was it a reaction to the lack of specifics in the campaigns? It could be these or other things. The one thing I believe is certain, the Democratic Party can not assume Non-Partisan voters will always be in their corner.

 

 

 

 

 

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

In the 18 days of voter registration in October before the close of registration for the general election, it has become clear, those voters registered as Non-Partisan will most likely control the outcome of most partisan races.

According to the numbers from the secretary of state’s office for the 18 days covered by the report, Non-Partisan registration out-paced the major parties in both rate of growth and change in voter share. This was true state-wide, Clark County, Washoe County, the rural counties, among those 18 to 34 years of age, and those 55 years of age and older. The only exceptions, Democratic voter share among those 18 to 34 years of age and Republican voter share of those 55 and older increased slightly.

State-Wide

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	15,891	2.73	38.32	-0.01
R	10,726	2.09	33.52	-0.22
NP	13,614	4.15	21.91	0.29
IAP	1,659	2.07	4.33	-0.03
LIB	355	2.33	1.00	0.00
Other	-67	-0.47	0.91	-0.03
Total not D or R			28.15	0.23

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	13,356	3.00	41.89	-0.03
R	7,336	2.34	29.36	-0.21
NP	10,674	4.46	22.86	0.30
IAP	1,276	2.58	4.08	-0.02
LIB	259	2.66	0.91	0.00
Other	-107	-1.08	0.90	-0.04
Total not D or R			28.75	0.24

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	1,919	2.07	35.12	-0.04
R	1,631	1.66	37.05	-0.19
NP	2,046	3.76	20.96	0.32
IAP	186	1.02	4.39	-0.05
LIB	42	1.26	1.25	-0.01
Other	27	0.83	1.23	-0.02
Total not D or R			27.83	0.24

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	616	1.38	22.91	-0.09
R	1,759	1.75	51.80	-0.02
NP	894	2.58	17.97	0.14
IAP	130	1.18	5.65	-0.03
LIB	54	2.49	1.13	0.01
Other	13	1.23	0.54	0.00
Total not D or R			25.29	0.12

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	8,541	5.49	38.55	0.15
R	3,359	3.57	22.86	-0.33
NP	7,698	6.20	30.98	0.32
IAP	1,005	4.02	4.50	-0.05
LIB	240	3.39	1.72	-0.03
Other	24	0.41	1.39	-0.06
Total not D or R			38.59	0.18

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	3,325	1.34	38.74	-0.09
R	4,308	1.64	41.33	0.03
NP	2,209	2.35	14.88	0.11
IAP	192	0.59	4.08	-0.02
LIB	16	0.57	0.44	0.00
Other	-91	-2.58	0.53	-0.02
Total not D or R			19.93	0.07

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

 

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	3	1	0
Republican	4	0	0
Non-Partisan	0	4	0
IAP	4	0	0
LIB	0	0	4
Other	4	0	0

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	13	3	0
Republican	21	0	0
Non-Partisan	0	21	0
IAP	18	2	1
LIB	11	5	5
Other	19	0	2

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties..

State Assembly Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	33	8	1
Republican	39	2	1
Non-Partisan	0	42	0
IAP	31	7	4
LIB	21	9	12
Other	37	3	2

In 33 districts (78.57%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This was the second consecutive month of a one district increase

Early voting has started. With a record number of eligible Nevadans registered to vote and with nearly 30 percent not registered to either the Democratic or Republican Party (nearly 40 percent among younger voters), many races will be determined by not only the overall turnout but how the Non-Partisan and minor party voters cast their ballots.

 

 

 

 

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

 The voter registration numbers for September 2018 are clear. With a record number of Nevadans now registered to vote, they are abandoning both the Democratic and Republican Party.

Monthly changes in voter share above one-tenth of one percent are big, Changes of one-quarter of one percent are huge. That’s what is happening. Also as is par for the course, the rate of growth of Non-Partisan voters outpaces that of any political party.

The trend is across all demographics; state-wide, Clark County, Washoe County, the rural counties, among those 18 to 34 years of age, and those 55 years of age and older. Changes in congressional, state senate, and state assembly districts also show this continuing trend. Among those 18 to 34 years of age the percentage of Non-Partisan exceeds the percentage of those registered GOP by almost 8 percent and the percentage not affiliated with either major party now exceeds the percent registered as Democratic.

State-Wide

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	8,547	1.49	38.33	-0.07
R	6,908	1.37	33.74	-0.10
NP	8,655	2.71	21.62	0.22
IAP	931	0.93	4.36	-0.03
LIB	278	1.86	1.00	0.00
Other	41	0.29	0.94	-0.01
Total not D or R			27.93	0.18

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	6,514	1.49	41.92	-0.09
R	4,361	1.41	29.57	-0.09
NP	6,388	2.74	22.56	0.23
IAP	578	0.92	4.10	-0.03
LIB	192	2.01	0.92	0.00
Other	-9	-0.09	0.94	-0.02
Total not D or R			28.52	0.18

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	1,608	1.77	35.17	-0.05
R	1,471	1.52	37.24	-0.15
NP	1,651	3.13	20.65	0.24
IAP	230	1.15	4.44	-0.03
LIB	47	1.43	1.26	-0.01
Other	50	1.55	1.24	0.00
Total not D or R			27.66	0.20

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	425	0.96	23.00	-0.05
R	1,076	1.08	51.82	-0.04
NP	616	1.81	17.84	0.11
IAP	84	0.59	5.68	-0.02
LIB	39	1.83	1.12	0.01
Other	0	0.00	0.55	-0.01
Total not D or R			25.19	0.09

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	4,102	2.71	38.40	-0.07
R	2,051	2.23	23.19	-0.15
NP	4,725	3.95	30.66	0.31
IAP	536	1.61	4.54	-0.06
LIB	193	2.80	1.75	0.00
Other	51	0.87	1.46	-0.03
Total not D or R			38.41	0.22

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	2,309	0.94	38.83	-0.07
R	3,012	1.16	41.31	0.01
NP	1,602	1.73	14.76	0.09
IAP	195	0.69	4.10	-0.02
LIB	14	0.50	0.44	0.00
Other	2	0.06	0.55	-0.01
Total not D or R			19.86	0.06

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	4	0	0
Republican	4	0	0
Non-Partisan	0	4	0
IAP	4	0	0
LIB	0	1	3
Other	4	0	0

CD 1and CD 2 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. CD 4 returned to this status; 75 percent of the districts.

State Senate Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	20	0	1
Republican	19	2	0
Non-Partisan	0	21	0
IAP	19	1	1
LIB	5	8	8
Other	17	1	3

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was an increase of one from August.

State Assembly Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	38	2	2
Republican	26	16	0
Non-Partisan	1	40	1
IAP	26	12	4
LIB	11	23	8
Other	36	3	3

In 32 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This was an increase of one from August. Also, AD 3 changed to where the percentage of Non-Partisan voters now exceeds the percentage registered as Republican.

In two weeks, October 16^th, voter registration for the general election closes. It is clear, both the Democratic and Republican Party are losing voter interest. Fewer new voters or voters changing party affiliation are choosing a major political party, instead shunning political parties altogether. Non-Partisan turnout and how they vote will decide several races.

 

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

 With less than two months before the close of voter registration for the general election, it is becoming apparent neither the Democratic nor Republican Party control the outcome. That honor belongs to those voters registered as Non-Partisan.

An analysis of the voter registration numbers for August 2018 show both major parties losing significant voter share while Non-Partisan registered corresponding gains. The rate of growth for Non-Partisan also over-shadows that of the major parties with the Libertarian Party also showing large growth.

State-Wide

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	9,513	1.69	38.40	-0.05
R	7,535	1.51	33.84	-0.10
NP	8,398	2.70	21.40	0.18
IAP	1,272	1.40	4.39	-0.02
LIB	360	2.47	1.00	0.01
Other	7	0.05	0.95	-0.02
Total not D or R			27.74	0.15

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	8.876	2.07	42.01	-0.10
R	5,959	1.96	29.66	-0.10
NP	7,469	3.31	22.33	0.22
IAP	1,171	2.00	4.13	-0.02
LIB	308	3.33	0.91	0.01
Other	15	0.15	0.95	-0.02
Total not D or R			28.32	0.19

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	682	0.76	35.22	-0.05
R	846	0.88	37.38	0.00
NP	672	1.29	20.40	0.08
IAP	91	0.52	4.48	-0.02
LIB	29	0.89	1.27	0.00
Other	2	0.06	1.25	-0.01
Total not D or R			27.40	0.05

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	-45	-0.10	23.05	-0.14
R	730	0.74	51.86	0.12
NP	257	0.76	17.72	0.05
IAP	-3	-0.03	5.71	-0.03
LIB	23	1.09	1.11	0.01
Other	-10	-0.93	0.55	0.00
Total not D or R			25.09	0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	4,663	3.18	38.47	0.03
R	2,039	2.27	23.34	-0.19
NP	4,435	3.85	30.35	0.22
IAP	728	2.67	4.60	-0.02
LIB	236	3.54	1.75	0.01
Other	21	0.36	1.49	-0.04
Total not D or R			38.19	0.17

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	2,243	0.92	38.90	-0.09
R	3,394	1.32	41.29	0.06
NP	1,388	1.52	14.68	0.05
IAP	238	0.80	4.12	-0.01
LIB	34	1.22	0.45	0.00
Other	-2	-0.06	0.56	-0.01
Total not D or R			19.81	0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	4	0	0
Republican	3	1	0
Non-Partisan	0	4	0
IAP	3	1	0
LIB	0	4	0
Other	4	0	0

CD 1and CD 2 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	20	1	0
Republican	14	7	0
Non-Partisan	1	20	0
IAP	14	6	1
LIB	2	10	9
Other	18	0	3

In 15 districts (71.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

State Assembly Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	38	2	2
Republican	26	16	0
Non-Partisan	1	40	1
IAP	26	12	4
LIB	11	23	8
Other	36	3	3

In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

Monthly changes in excess of one-tenth of one percent (0.10) are significant. Changes of nearly one-quarter of one percent (0.25) are rare. Yet we see type of swings in several places through the tracked demographics. If this trend continues through to the close of voter registration in October, the outcome of key races should be interesting.

 

 

 

 

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

Voter registration statistics for July show the trend returning; Non-Partisan gaining voter share while the major parties lose, substantiating my belief last month that major party increases, especially in the Democratic Party, were the result of voter shock of not being able to vote in some major races in the primary because of minor party or Non-Partisan voter registration. Exceptions to the trend: Democratic gain in Washoe County and GOP gain among in the rural counties and with  voters 55 years of age and older.

State-Wide

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	2,057	0.37	38.45	0.00
R	1,610	0.32	33.95	-0.02
NP	1,678	0.54	21.22	0.04
IAP	101	0.06	4.41	-0.01
LIB	69	0.48	0.99	0.00
Other	-4	-0.03	0.97	0.00
Total not D or R			27.59	0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	2,958	0.61	42.11	-0.03
R	1,958	0.65	29.75	-0.01
NP	1,961	0.88	22.11	0.04
IAP	425	0.48	4.15	-0.01
LIB	120	1.32	0.91	0.01
Other	102	1.04	0.97	0.00
Total not D or R			28.14	0.04

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	-710	-0.78	35.27	0.09
R	-1,087	-1.12	37.39	-0.03
NP	-505	-0.96	20.32	0.01
IAP	-365	-1.58	4.49	-0.03
LIB	-68	-2.05	1.27	-0.01
Other	-112	-3.36	1.26	-0.03
Total not D or R			27.34	-0.06

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	169	0.38	23.18	-0.05
R	739	0.75	51.74	0.07
NP	222	0.66	17.68	0.01
IAP	41	0.16	5.74	-0.03
LIB	17	0.81	1.11	0.00
Other	6	0.56	0.56	0.00
Total not D or R			25.09	-0.02

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	1,067	0.72	38.45	0.01
R	382	0.43	23.53	-0.06
NP	1,066	0.93	30.13	0.07
IAP	138	0.63	4.62	0.00
LIB	21	0.32	1.74	-0.01
Other	6	0.10	1.53	-0.01
Total not D or R			38.02	0.05

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

55+

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	518	0.21	38.99	-0.02
R	1,063	0.42	41.23	0.06
NP	133	0.15	14.63	-0.02
IAP	-47	-0.19	4.14	-0.02
LIB	-1	-0.04	0.45	0.00
Other	2	0.06	0.57	0.00
Total not D or R			19.79	-0.04

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	4	0	0
Republican	1	3	0
Non-Partisan	0	4	0
IAP	3	0	1
LIB	1	2	1
Other	1	1	2

CD 1and CD 2 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	15	4	2
Republican	6	13	2
Non-Partisan	3	17	1
IAP	16	3	2
LIB	5	10	6
Other	8	9	4

In 15 districts (71.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

State Assembly Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	29	10	3
Republican	19	22	1
Non-Partisan	7	33	2
IAP	27	10	5
LIB	10	20	12
Other	19	16	7

In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. There was no change from June.

Going into July, the question was would the major party share gains of June continue. Given the intense voter registration efforts currently being conducted by the parties and candidates, it was possible. The fact the growth does not appear to be continuing reinforces the idea that voters may not share the parties’ visions or current paths and are more comfortable not affiliating with any political party. This also highlights the need for change in how we conduct our elections so the growing number of voter not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican Party are equally represented.