Root Cause (Root What?) – OPINION

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform – February 7, 2024

Root cause and root cause analysis. I strongly believe these two terms are unknown to many elected officials and our population as a whole. Why else do legislative bodies revisit the same issues over and over again, never really solving anything?

Whether the issue has either a national or local impact, whether it’s border security, gun violence, school choice, voting rights, taxes, or anything else that impact our communities, it appears lawmakers can only think of going to the cabinet and getting a band aid. While the band aid stops the bleeding momentarily, it doesn’t prevent us from getting cut again, bleeding, and needing another band aid. Maybe this is because fixing the immediate is gratifying, giving a sense of accomplishment. Maybe it’s because the belief is this is how you solve a problem. Either way, nothing is ever truly fixed.

Most people want problems resolved so the likelihood of them recurring is non-existent or at least minimal. Accomplishing this is not easy. It can take time. There are courses that teach the steps, that’s how difficult and confusing it can be. But the rewards are often worth the time.

Perhaps a total mind-set change is needed. It’s not uncommon for elected officials to have a background as a lawyer. Lawyers, by the very nature of their work, are not focused on a permanent solution. Each case is a new problem requiring its own solution. They want, in fact, need the problem to occur often as their livelihood depends on it. Could that be part of the problem?

On the other hand, think about the issues facing our communities. Wouldn’t it be nice to find a real solution for the many issues facing our children? How good would it be if we could find a permanent fix to affordable housing and homelessness? How about taxes? Our immigration system, and the gun debate?

Think of root cause as the roots of a tree. Without its root structure, a tree does not survive. If there is no root cause, is there a real problem or just a symptom of a deeper issue? Root cause is what gives an issue life. It is the cause from which all other symptoms develop. Solve for the root cause and the likelihood of the problem coming back is virtually non-existent.

Root cause analysis is the process used to find the root cause. There are different methods; asking “why” until you can’t.

            Schools are failing our children. Why?

            Because we’re not teaching the right things. Why?

            Because teachers are not teaching. Why?

            Because the students don’t listen. Why?

Maybe the first question should be what do we expect from our educational system.

            There’s too much gun violence. Why?

            Because guns are too available. Why?

            Because people have mental health issues. Why?

Maybe the first question should be what has changed in society to make using a gun the default option to solve a personal dispute.

The list can go on and on.

On immigration perhaps starting with why do people sneak across our borders or overstay their visas would help us find a real solution.

If elected officials understood root cause and root cause analysis, perhaps we, their constituents, our cities, counties, state, and nation would be better served. What if the approval authority; mayor, governor, president, required a root cause analysis and a statement on how the legislation solves the problem accompany the bill to have it considered for signature. No root cause, veto. Of course, this may mean each bill would have to address only a single subject, no bills including related or unrelated topics. I touched on that before.

Assuming this happens, elected officials have to be willing to collaborate on proposing and passing legislation to implement solutions. This means leaving what has become the status quo of talking points and party loyalty behind in favor of doing what is best for those who they represent. This means the system that drives behavior has to change.

Nevadans have a unique opportunity this November to make such a change. A change that shakes up the status quo and provides elected officials the incentive to collaborate and solve problems in order to get elected or reelected rather than just appeal to a narrow so-called party base. The results are proven. Voters just need to pass Question 3 on the November 2024 ballot.

Republican Presidential Caucus Likely Cause of GOP Voter Share Increase

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform – February 2, 2024

The Republican Party Presidential Caucus, with a January deadline to change party registration to participate, is the likely cause of an across the board increase in party voter share in last month. Democratic party voter share, despite the upcoming Democratic Party Presidential Preference Primary, fell along with Non-Partisan and minor party, the likely source of voters switching.

Not withstanding the Republican gains and Non-Partisan loses, Non-Partisan remains the largest bloc of voters state-wide, in Clark County, and among voters 18 to 54 years of age. Vote share of those not registered as either Democratic or Republican remains the largest group in Washoe County.

State-Wide

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D1,7570.30%30.83%-0.05%
R6,7491.22%28.96%0.21%
NP1,0490.16%32.96%-0.10%
IAP-176-0.21%4.35%-0.03%
LIB-66-0.40%0.84%-0.01%
Other-257-0.64%2.06%-0.02%
Total not D or R  40.21%-0.16%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Clark County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D1,5570.34%33.19%-0.05%
R4,3531.27%25.09%0.19%
NP9760.20%34.53%-0.10%
IAP-66-0.11%4.20%-0.02%
LIB-37-0.36%0.74%-0.01%
Other-148-0.47%2.25%-0.02%
Total not D or R  41.73%-0.15%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Washoe County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D1030.11%30.46%-0.03%
R9670.94%32.45%0.23%
NP-233-0.25%29.35%-0.14%
IAP-53-0.35%4.67%-0.03%
LIB-16-0.44%1.14%-0.01%
Other-71-1.15%1.92%-0.03%
Total not D or R  37.09%-0.21

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Rural Counties (See rural county table below district tables)

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D970.25%17.00%-0.09%
R1,4291.34%47.59%0.27%
NP3060.47%28.49%-0.08%
IAP-57-0.52%4.81%-0.06%
LIB-13-0.54%1.04%-0.01%
Other-38-1.54%1.07%-0.02%
Total not D or R  35.40%-0.17%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

18 – 34 Year Old

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D2230.15%28.40%-0.10%
R1,3351.50%16.71%0.17%
NP1,1360.45%46.91%-0.02%
IAP890.39%4.22%0.00%
LIB-30-0.44%1.25%-0.01%
Other-96-0.70%2.51%-0.03%
Total not D or R  54.89%-0.06%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

35 – 54 Year Old

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D4790.27%29.65%-0.07%
R2,0841.28%27.37%0.21%
NP6370.31%34.66%-0.07%
IAP-24-0.09%4.63%-0.03%
LIB-15-0.23%1.05%-0.01%
Other-50-0.31%2.63%-0.02%
Total not D or R  42.97%-0.13%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

55+

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D1,0840.41%33.40%-0.01%
R3,3541.12%38.59%0.26%
NP-662-0.38%22.07%-0.18%
IAP-234-0.70%4.24%-0.05%
LIB-20-0.63%0.40%0.00%
Other-104-1.01%1.30%-0.02%
Total not D or R  28.00%-0.25%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic400
Republican040
NP400
IAP400
LIB301
Other400
Not D or R400

In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party exceeds the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

In three (75%) of the districts the percentage of voters not registered as Democratic or Republican is the leading group of voters.

NP holds the top share in CD1 and CD3.

State Senate Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic2100
Republican0210
NP1722
IAP1812
LIB1209
Other2100
Not D or R2100

In all 21 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

In 15 (71.43%) of the 21 districts the percentage of voters not registered as Democratic or Republican is the leading group of voters.

NP holds the top share in SDs 2,5,7,8,9,10,11,12

State Assembly Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic3732
Republican1410
NP3741
IAP3624
LIB22119
Other40  11
Not D or R3831

In all 42 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

In 31 (73.81%) of the 42 districts the percentage of voters not registered as Democratic or Republican is the leading group of voters. NP holds the top share in ADs 5,8,9,15,16,18,21,29,35,41, and 42

Rural Counties

Party# Counties Lose Voter Share# Counties Gain Voter Share# Counties No Change
Democratic1410
Republican3120
NP5100
IAP1500
LIB1410
Other1311
Not D or R960

The average voter share of those not registered to either the Democratic or Republican

Combine NP / minor party is the largest group in Carson City

Party increased in the 15 rural counties is now 32.47 percent.

The questions now becomes will the Republican gains hold leading up to the general election in November (not the normal trend) and will the Democratic Party pick up any voter share with same day registration at the primary.