Voter Share Changes Return To Normal Ranges But With Democratic Share Loses

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

April voter registration numbers for April showed a major reversal for the Democratic Party with voter share loses across all tracked demographics (except Washoe County) and in a majority of Congressional, State Senate, and State Assembly districts. While shifts in voter share returned to normal ranges, it is significant given gains over the past few months. Conversely the Republican Party only lost voter share in Washoe County while Non-Partisan only lost share in the rural counties. In legislative districts, loses and gains were evenly divided for the GOP with Non-Partisan seeing significant gains. What is also of interest is voter share gains by the Independent American Party almost mirror those for Non-Partisan raising the recurring question of how many of those voters meant to register as Non-Partisan.

State-Wide

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D2,3030.37%38.57%-0.04%
R2,5120.48%32.71%0.00%
NP2,1260.58%22.62%0.03%
IAP4530.64%4.38%0.01%
LIB550.35%0.97%0.00%
Other940.78%0.75%0.00%
Total not D or R  28.73%0.04

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D9,5002.05%42.16%-0.05%
R2,7130.86%28.56%0.00%
NP4,1301.60%23.52%0.04%
IAP5121.12%4.16%0.01%
LIB350.36%0.88%0.00%
Other-18-0.22%0.72%0.00%
Total not D or R  29.27%0.05

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D3360.32%35.95%0.01%
R1900.18%35.65%-0.04%
NP2600.41%21.65%0.02%
IAP530.41%4.44%0.01%
LIB160.44%1.25%0.00%
Other120.39%1.06%0.00%
Total not D or R  28.40%0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D-73-0.16%22.68%-0.08%
R5270.50%51.13%0.16%
NP-82-0.21%19.08%-0.07%
IAP-2-0.02%5.50%-0.01%
LIB60.26%1.12%0.00%
Other30.29%0.49%0.00%
Total not D or R  26.19%-0.08

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D3670.21%39.81%-0.05%
R3610.39%21.40%0.01%
NP5400.39%31.56%0.02%
IAP1370.70%4.54%0.02%
LIB100.14%1.63%0.00%
Other170.37%1.06%0.00%
Total not D or R  38.79%0.04

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D1,2630.48%38.50%-0.02%
R1,6120.58%41.03%0.01%
NP6150.58%15.44%0.01%
IAP1860.66%38.50%-0.02%
LIB70.23%41.03%0.01%
Other230.71%15.44%0.01%
Total not D or R  20.47%0.01

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic400
Republican013
Non-Partisan130
IAP031
LIB004
Other013

In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic1911
Republican8103
Non-Partisan2172
IAP2136
LIB4116
Other1713

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic3552
Republican19194
Non-Partisan7314
IAP10257
LIB12921
Other61323

In 35 districts (83.33%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of one over February.

With the current personal interaction restrictions due to the Covid-19 virus, campaigns have had to drastically change their campaigning techniques. This includes their voter registration techniques. With close of normal registration for the primary election two week away, this could be having an impact. We’ll know more after same-day registration numbers are known.