Presidential Campaign Season Not Helping Major Parties – They Still Lose Voter Share

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

With the presidential campaign season under way, August 2019 voter registration data still shows both the Democratic and Republican Party losing voter share and with a lower growth rate than Non-Partisan or the minor parties. With the exception of Washoe County and among voters 18 to 34 years of age where the Democratic Party voter share gained slightly, loses extended across all tracked demographics and throughout Congressional, state senate, and state assembly districts.

State-Wide

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	5,340	0.90%	38.08%	-0.01%
R	3,583	0.68%	33.43%	-0.08%
NP	4,355	1.26%	22.20%	0.07%
IAP	923	1.34%	4.43%	0.02%
LIB	255	1.61%	1.02%	0.01%
Other	23	0.17%	0.85%	-0.01%
Total not D or R			28.50%	0.09

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	4,196	0.92%	41.76%	-0.02%
R	2,324	0.73%	29.21%	-0.07%
NP	3,137	1.25%	23.10%	0.06%
IAP	697	1.54%	4.18%	0.02%
LIB	164	1.64%	0.93%	0.01%
Other	18	0.20%	0.83%	-0.01%
Total not D or R			29.03%	0.08%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	989	1.03%	34.98%	0.02%
R	718	0.71%	36.72%	-0.10%
NP	772	1.32%	21.38%	0.07%
IAP	164	1.34%	4.48%	0.02%
LIB	49	1.40%	1.28%	0.01%
Other	3	0.09%	1.16%	-0.01%
Total not D or R			28.31%	0.09

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	155	0.34%	22.44%	-0.06%
R	541	0.52%	51.64%	-0.05%
NP	446	1.19%	18.48%	0.11%
IAP	62	0.53%	5.73%	0.00%
LIB	42	1.80%	1.16%	0.01%
Other	2	0.18%	0.54%	0.00%
Total not D or R			25.91%	0.12

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	424	0.26%	38.48%	0.03%
R	-270	-0.28%	22.62%	-0.10%
NP	574	0.43%	31.30%	0.08%
IAP	78	0.40%	4.61%	0.01%
LIB	26	0.35%	1.74%	0.00%
Other	-59	-1.10%	1.25%	-0.02%
Total not D or R			38.90%	0.07%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	2,066	0.82%	38.37%	-0.02%
R	2,237	0.82%	41.38%	-0.02%
NP	1,058	1.07%	15.11%	0.03%
IAP	349	1.28%	4.17%	0.02%
LIB	46	1.54%	0.46%	0.00%
Other	36	1.06%	0.52%	0.00%
Total not D or R			20.25%	0.05%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	2	0	2
Republican	4	0	0
Non-Partisan	4	0	0
IAP	4	0	0
LIB	4	0	0
Other	3	0	1

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	13	5	3
Republican	19	2	2
Non-Partisan	0	20	1
IAP	1	19	1
LIB	2	15	4
Other	11	0	10

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	25	11	6
Republican	37	4	1
Non-Partisan	3	39	0
IAP	2	36	4
LIB	4	28	10
Other	24	3	15

In 35 districts (83%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is a gain of 1 from July 2019

Five months remain until the 2020 Democratic and Republican Party (GOP still has not confirmed leadership intent to forgo the caucus and award all delegates to President Trump by acclimation) caucus; nine months before the state and local primary elections. Within that time, automatic voter registration, which should increase the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan (it’s the default if a person does not choose a party) and same-day voter registration become effective. Since the caucus and primary are only open to party members, both major parties have their work cut out to reverse this on-going trend. Either way, it looks more and more like voters not affiliated with either major political party will continue to determine the outcome of elections in November 2020.