Voter registration numbers for November, 2016 have been released and it’s not good news for the GOP. Across all demographics, the Republican Party lost voter share while the Democratic Party, Non-Partisan, and minor parties gained. The only exception was in the 18-34 year old age group where Non-Partisan and minor parties also lost share. There is a caveat. The Independent American Party (IAP) grew by over four percent among this demographic leading to the assumption that some of those voters meant to register as Non-Partisan (an accepted fact). The IAP also experienced high growth across all other demographics, recording the highest growth rate state-wide of 3.63 percent. Based on historical trends, the assumption is some of this growth should have been in the Non-Partisan category.
State-Wide
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
|
D
|
18,137
|
3.14
|
39.59
|
0.15
|
|
R
|
9.689
|
1.98
|
33.13
|
-0.24
|
|
NP
|
9,289
|
3.05
|
20.85
|
0.06
|
|
Other
|
3,071
|
3.28
|
6.43
|
0.03
|
|
Total not D or R
|
27.28
|
0.09
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +3.63%; Lib +3.30%; other 5 parties +1.94%
Clark County
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
|
D
|
15,425
|
3.52
|
43.25
|
0.16
|
|
R
|
7,081
|
2.39
|
28.91
|
-0.21
|
|
NP
|
7,274
|
3.28
|
21.79
|
0.03
|
|
Other
|
2,269
|
3.70
|
6.06
|
0.03
|
|
Total not D or R
|
27.85
|
0.06
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +3.70%; Lib +3.75%; other 5 parties +2.13%
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
|
D
|
1,390
|
1.47
|
35.88
|
0.02
|
|
R
|
1,008
|
1.03
|
37.10
|
-0.15
|
|
NP
|
971
|
1.87
|
19.79
|
0.09
|
|
Other
|
369
|
1.95
|
7.23
|
0.04
|
|
Total not D or R
|
27.02
|
0.13
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.25%; Lib +2.12%; other 5 parties +0.86%
Rural Counties
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
|
D
|
1,322
|
2.98
|
24.38
|
0.15
|
|
R
|
1,600
|
1.70
|
51.09
|
-0.36
|
|
NP
|
1,053
|
3.39
|
17.13
|
0.16
|
|
Other
|
433
|
3.22
|
7.40
|
0.06
|
|
Total not D or R
|
24.53
|
0.22
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +3.19%; Lib +3.21%; other 5 parties +3.61%
18 – 34 Year Old
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
|
D
|
6,122
|
3.85
|
39.66
|
0.21
|
|
R
|
2,666
|
2.89
|
22.78
|
-0.09
|
|
NP
|
3,429
|
2.87
|
29.56
|
-0.12
|
|
Other
|
1,048
|
3.25
|
8.00
|
-0.01
|
|
Total not D or R
|
37.56
|
-0.13
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +4.12%; Lib +3.31%; other 5 parties +1.22%
55+
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
|
D
|
4,847
|
2.03
|
40.12
|
0.07
|
|
R
|
3,460
|
1.43
|
40.48
|
-0.16
|
|
NP
|
1,950
|
2.30
|
14.26
|
0.06
|
|
Other
|
763
|
2.50
|
5.14
|
0.03
|
|
Total not D or R
|
19.40
|
0.09
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.50%; Lib +2.29%; other 5 parties +2.66%
Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.
Congressional Districts
|
Party
|
# Districts Lose Voter Share
|
# Districts Gain Voter Share
|
# Districts No Change
|
|
Democratic
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
|
Republican
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
|
Non-Partisan
|
1
|
3
|
0
|
|
Other
|
0
|
4
|
0
|
In CD 1 and CD 4the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is the first time more than one CD has fallen into this category
State Senate Districts
|
Party
|
# Districts Lose Voter Share
|
# Districts Gain Voter Share
|
# Districts No Change
|
|
Democratic
|
1
|
19
|
1
|
|
Republican
|
21
|
0
|
0
|
|
Non-Partisan
|
6
|
15
|
0
|
|
Other
|
1
|
20
|
0
|
In 13 districts (61.9%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of one district since close of registration for the general election
State Assembly Districts
|
Party
|
# Districts Lose Voter Share
|
# Districts Gain Voter Share
|
# Districts No Change
|
|
Democratic
|
6
|
33
|
3
|
|
Republican
|
42
|
0
|
0
|
|
Non-Partisan
|
12
|
29
|
1
|
|
Other
|
6
|
32
|
4
|
In 30 districts (71.43%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
November was a good month for the Democratic Party and a disaster for the Republican. November also appears to be one of the exceptions where one of the major parties outperformed Non-Partisans.
We are nine weeks away from the start of the 2017 Nevada legislative session. It will be interesting to see how the legislature in action impacts voter registration trends.