Following Surge in March Major Parties Return to Losing Voter Share

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform – May 2, 2024

Following a surge in March, both the Democratic and Republican Party returned to the trend of losing voter share in April. In addition to a corresponding gain in Non-Partisan voter share, the Independent American Party (IAP) also recorded minor gains. Was this voters expressing an interest in the party or confusing “Independent” with Non-Partisan? Loses and gains were across the board, in all demographics tracked.

State-Wide

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D2,8400.47%30.40%-0.12%
R3,0620.54%28.76%-0.10%
NP10,0721.53%33.68%0.22%
IAP1,2651.48%4.37%0.03%
LIB990.60%0.83%0.00%
Other-37-0.10%1.96%-0.02%
Total not D or R  40.84%0.23%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Clark County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D2,7390.59%32.75%-0.12%
R2,3880.68%24.94%-0.07%
NP7,5421.53%35.23%0.19%
IAP9941.68%4.22%0.03%
LIB540.52%0.73%0.00%
Other-24-0.08%2.14%-0.02%
Total not D or R  42.31%0.20%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Washoe County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D210.02%29.98%-0.14%
R680.06%32.16%-0.14%
NP1,3671.41%30.15%0.27%
IAP1240.81%4.70%0.02%
LIB180.49%1.13%0.00%
Other-1-0.02%1.87%-0.01%
Total not D or R  37.85%0.28%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Rural Counties (See rural county table below district tables)

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D800.21%16.67%-0.11%
R6060.55%47.27%-0.15%
NP1,1631.74%29.18%0.25%
IAP1471.32%4.84%0.02%
LIB271.13%1.03%0.00%
Other-12-0.50%1.02%-0.01%
Total not D or R  36.07%0.26%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

18 – 34 Year Old

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D7850.51%27.69%-0.19%
R9491.02%16.66%-0.03%
NP4,4141.67%47.84%0.23%
IAP4882.08%4.26%0.04%
LIB120.18%1.21%-0.01%
Other-85-0.64%2.34%-0.04%
Total not D or R  55.65%0.22%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

35 – 54 Year Old

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D9150.51%29.25%-0.12%
R8080.48%27.17%-0.12%
NP3,3331.54%35.36%0.22%
IAP4761.68%4.65%0.00%
LIB590.92%1.16%-0.01%
Other230.15%2.79%-0.06%
Total not D or R  43.35%0.03%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

55+

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D2,3880.91%33.20%-0.07%
R2,9850.98%38.46%-0.08%
NP2,4721.41%22.45%0.14%
IAP3030.91%4.23%0.01%
LIB70.22%0.39%0.00%
Other-23-0.23%1.26%0.00%
Total not D or R  28.34%0.15%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic400
Republican400
NP040
IAP040
LIB004
Other400
Not D or R040

In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party exceeds the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

In CD1, CD3, and CD4 NP holds the top

State Senate Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic2010
Republican1830
NP0210
IAP0201
LIB4314
Other2100
Not D or R0210

In all 21 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

In 16 (76.19%) of the 21 districts the percentage of voters not registered as Democratic or Republican is the leading group of voters. Increase of one(1) from March

NP holds the top share in 10 districts (42.86%) SDs 2,5,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,21. An increase of one (1) from March

State Assembly Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic3840
Republican3660
NP1410
IAP3390
LIB13722
Other38  13
Not D or R3390

In all 42 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

In 33 (78.57%) of the 42 districts the percentage of voters not registered as Democratic or Republican is the leading group of voters. An increase of one (1) from March. NP holds the top share in 17 districts (40.48%) ADs 5,8,9,11,15,16,18,20,21,24,27,28,29,30,35,41, and 42

Rural Counties

Party# Counties Lose Voter Share# Counties Gain Voter Share# Counties No Change
Democratic1410
Republican1230
NP2130
IAP3111
LIB663
Other1014
Not D or R0150

Combined NP / minor party is the largest group in Carson City

Average non-major party voter share counties is now 33.08 percent, an increase of 0.24% from March.

We are less than one month away from the start of early voting for the June primary election. How will voter share change leading up to the primary and will voters decide closer to election day and use same day registration?