As the trend in voter share favoring Non-Partisan and minor parties continues, (click here for August, 2017 data) it now appears that come the 2018 general election, more voters could be registered to vote in those categories than will be registered as either Democratic or Republican. If the change in voter share between August 2016 and August 2017 is applied, those registered as Non-Partisan or as a member of a minor party will be over 30 percent. Among voters 18 to 34 years old, that number will be over 40 percent. And while not quite reaching parity, this number will be over 25 percent in the rural counties and over 20 percent among those 55 years of age and older. These numbers are an estimate based on the past year’s change in voter share. My personal opinion is they will be higher. I doubt they’ll be lower.
Back to last month. On the outward appearance, minor parties appear to have fallen in August, 2017. However, the decrease is due to a glitch where the system assigned new voters who did not specify a party to “other” rather than “Non-Partisan.” Bottom line, the two major parties lost voter share.
Again, the GOP did not lose as badly as the Democratic Party. While the Democratic Party lost voter share across all demographics and almost all state senate and assembly districts, the GOP remained unchanged state-wide and had slight increases in voter share in Clark County, the rural counties, and among those 18 to 34 years of age. The GOP also gained voter share in more state senate and assembly district than they lost share.
State-Wide
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 603 | 0.10 | 39.14 | -0.09 |
| R | 1,657 | 0.34 | 33.10 | 0.00 |
| NP | 3,518 | 1.13 | 21.21 | 0.17 |
| Other | -988 | -1.01 | 6.55 | -0.09 |
| Total not D or R | 27.76 | 0.08 |
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access. Change is # voters: IAP +0.40%; Lib +0.80%; other 5 parties -7.30%
Clark County
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 1,011 | 0.23 | 42.75 | -0.13 |
| R | 1,905 | 0.63 | 28.85 | 0.03 |
| NP | 3,499 | 1.53 | 22.17 | 0.22 |
| Other | -947 | -1.43 | 6.24 | -0.12 |
| Total not D or R | 28.41 | 0.10 |
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access. Change is # voters: IAP +0.68%; Lib +0.93%; other 5 parties -9.47%
Washoe County
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | -104 | -0.12 | 35.33 | -0.04 |
| R | -116 | -0.12 | 37.53 | -0.05 |
| NP | 199 | 0.40 | 19.98 | 0.08 |
| Other | 34 | 0.19 | 7.16 | 0.01 |
| Total not D or R | 27.14 | 0.09 |
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access. Change is # voters: IAP +0.33%; Lib +0.68%; other 5 parties -0.69
Rural Counties
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | -304 | -0.68 | 23.94 | -0.07 |
| R | -132 | -0.14 | 51.13 | 0.12 |
| NP | -180 | -0.55 | 17.46 | -0.03 |
| Other | -75 | -0.54 | 7.47 | -0.01 |
| Total not D or R | 24.93 | -0.04 |
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access. Change is # voters: IAP -0.68%; Lib +0.36%; other 5 parties -0.73%
18 – 34 Year Old
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | -172 | -0.11 | 39.22 | -0.14 |
| R | 448 | 0.50 | 22.55 | 0.06 |
| NP | 1,231 | 1.04 | 30.06 | 0.24 |
| Other | -525 | -1.59 | 8.16 | -0.15 |
| Total not D or R | 38.22 | 0.09 |
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access. Change is # voters: IAP +0.31%; Lib +0.58%; other 5 parties -7.47%
55+
| Party | Change in # Voters | % Change | % Voter Share | Difference in Voter Share % |
| D | 535 | 0.22 | 39.65 | -0.06 |
| R | 858 | 0.35 | 40.50 | -0.01 |
| NP | 999 | 1.13 | 14.60 | 0.11 |
| Other | -116 | -0.36 | 5.25 | -0.04 |
| Total not D or R | 19.85 | 0.07 |
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access. Change is # voters: IAP +0.41%; Lib +1.01%; other 5 parties -6.15%
Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.
Congressional Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Non-Partisan | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Other | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Both CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Senate Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 20 | 1 | 0 |
| Republican | 6 | 13 | 2 |
| Non-Partisan | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| Other | 18 | 2 | 1 |
In 15 districts (71.4%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. Note the Democratic Party continues a major loss of voter share. parties gained voter share in all districts.
State Assembly Districts
| Party | # Districts Lose Voter Share | # Districts Gain Voter Share | # Districts No Change |
| Democratic | 38 | 4 | 0 |
| Republican | 17 | 23 | 2 |
| Non-Partisan | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Other | 35 | 6 | 1 |
In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is unchanged from last month. As in the senate, the Democratic Party continues to experience a major loss of voter share.
As Nevadans continue to lose confidence in the both the Democratic and Republican Party, look for exciting news in the near future from Nevadans for Election Reform.