Voter registration for the 2016 general election has closed. Some interesting numbers: -5.87%, -3.92%, +19.21%, +7.93%. These are the percentage of change in voter share since the last presidential election for the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, Non-Partisan, and minor parties. Here is the 2012 to 2016 comparison.
State-Wide
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share – 2012
|
% Voter Share – 2016
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
% Change
|
|
D
|
50,693
|
9.62
|
41.90
|
39.44
|
-2.46
|
-5.87
|
|
R
|
52,062
|
11.92
|
34.73
|
33.17
|
-1.36
|
-3.92
|
|
NP
|
85,229
|
38.86
|
17.44
|
20.79
|
3.35
|
19.21
|
|
Other
|
19,214
|
25.78
|
5.93
|
6.40
|
0.47
|
7.93
|
|
Total not D or R
|
23.37
|
27.19
|
3.82
|
16.35
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +8.95%; Lib +5.84%; other 5 parties +114.10%
Clark County
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share – 2012
|
% Voter Share – 2016
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
% Change
|
|
D
|
48,545
|
12.44
|
45.82
|
43.09
|
-2.73
|
-5.96
|
|
R
|
33,753
|
12.84
|
30.85
|
29.12
|
-1.73
|
-5.61
|
|
NP
|
70,055
|
46.24
|
17.78
|
21.76
|
3.98
|
22.38
|
|
Other
|
14,145
|
29.95
|
5.54
|
6.03
|
0.49
|
8.84
|
|
Total not D or R
|
23.32
|
27.79
|
4.47
|
19.17
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +9.12%; Lib +57.86%; other 5 parties +170.00%
Washoe County
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share – 2012
|
% Voter Share – 2016
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
% Change
|
|
D
|
3,701
|
4.77
|
37.60
|
35.86
|
-1.74
|
-4.63
|
|
R
|
6,197
|
6.74
|
38.08
|
37.25
|
-0.83
|
-2.18
|
|
NP
|
9,407
|
22.11
|
17.62
|
19.70
|
2.08
|
11.80
|
|
Other
|
2,757
|
17.03
|
6.71
|
7.19
|
0.48
|
7.15
|
|
Total not D or R
|
24.33
|
26.89
|
2.56
|
10.52
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.92%; Lib +57.20%; other 5 parties +50.18%
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share – 2012
|
% Voter Share – 2016
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
% Change
|
|
D
|
-1,553
|
-3.38
|
27.94
|
24.23
|
-3.71
|
-13.28
|
|
R
|
12,112
|
14.76
|
49.92
|
51.45
|
1.53
|
3.06
|
|
NP
|
5,794
|
22.93
|
15.37
|
16.97
|
1.60
|
10.41
|
|
Other
|
2,312
|
20.80
|
6.77
|
7.34
|
0.57
|
8.42
|
|
Total not D or R
|
22.14
|
24.31
|
2.17
|
9.80
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +15.97%; Lib +63.0%; other 5 parties +16.76%
Voter registration for the 18 days of October strengthen the assumption that in addition to turnout, those registered as Non-Partisan and in minor parties will determine the outcome. Younger voters, those between the ages of 18 to 34 should also have a major impact. Their numbers grew by just over 10 percent in these 18 days. That is on top of the seven percent growth recorded for that demographic in September. Another point that should gain attention is that in 18 days many of the changes in voter share exceed + / – one-half percent.
Early voting has begun. As voters head to the polls, the trend, fewer voters associating with either major political party continues. We will know the true impact in a few weeks.
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
|
D
|
29,102
|
5.30
|
39.44
|
-0.12
|
|
R
|
17,751
|
3.77
|
33.37
|
-0.61
|
|
NP
|
25,164
|
9.01
|
20.79
|
0.64
|
|
Other
|
6,252
|
7.15
|
6.40
|
0.09
|
|
Total not D or R
|
27.19
|
0.73
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +5.06%; Lib +10.73%; other 5 parties +12.59%
Clark County
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
|
D
|
24,562
|
5.93
|
43.09
|
-0.17
|
|
R
|
12,382
|
4.36
|
29.12
|
-0.55
|
|
NP
|
19,277
|
9.53
|
21.76
|
0.64
|
|
Other
|
4,371
|
7.67
|
6.03
|
0.08
|
|
Total not D or R
|
27.79
|
0.72
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +5.89%; Lib +11.71%; other 5 parties +11.14%
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
|
D
|
3,249
|
3.56
|
35.86
|
-0.18
|
|
R
|
2,168
|
2.26
|
37.25
|
-0.66
|
|
NP
|
3,716
|
7.71
|
19.70
|
0.66
|
|
Other
|
1,208
|
6.81
|
7.19
|
0.18
|
|
Total not D or R
|
26.89
|
0.84
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +3.0%; Lib +9.50%; other 5 parties +18.08%
Rural Counties
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
|
D
|
1,291
|
3.0
|
24.23
|
-0.29
|
|
R
|
3,201
|
3.52
|
51.45
|
-0.32
|
|
NP
|
2,171
|
7.51
|
16.97
|
0.53
|
|
Other
|
673
|
5.28
|
7.34
|
0.08
|
|
Total not D or R
|
24.31
|
0.61
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +4.25%; Lib +8.44%; other 5 parties +10.50%
18 – 34 Year Old
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
|
D
|
13,378
|
9.46
|
39.45
|
-0.21
|
|
R
|
6,168
|
7.17
|
22.87
|
-0.61
|
|
NP
|
13,914
|
13.16
|
29.68
|
0.82
|
|
Other
|
3,409
|
11.81
|
8.01
|
0.13
|
|
Total not D or R
|
37.69
|
0.95
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +8.64%; Lib +15.20%; other 5 parties +16.77%
55+
|
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
|
D
|
5,951
|
2.56
|
40.05
|
-0.05
|
|
R
|
4,984
|
2.10
|
40.64
|
-0.24
|
|
NP
|
3,669
|
4.53
|
14.20
|
0.26
|
|
Other
|
1,008
|
3.42
|
5.11
|
0.04
|
|
Total not D or R
|
19.31
|
0.30
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.78%; Lib +4.02%; other 5 parties +7.65%
Congressional Districts
|
Party
|
# Districts Lose Voter Share
|
# Districts Gain Voter Share
|
# Districts No Change
|
|
Democratic
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
|
Republican
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
|
Non-Partisan
|
0
|
4
|
0
|
|
Other
|
0
|
4
|
0
|
In CD 1 there are over two percent more voters registered as Non-Partisan than Republican. When minor party registrations are added, the difference is over eight percent.
State Senate Districts
|
Party
|
# Districts Lose Voter Share
|
# Districts Gain Voter Share
|
# Districts No Change
|
|
Democratic
|
20
|
0
|
1
|
|
Republican
|
21
|
0
|
0
|
|
Non-Partisan
|
0
|
21
|
0
|
|
Other
|
0
|
21
|
0
|
In 13 districts (61.90%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of one district over September, 2016
State Assembly Districts
|
Party
|
# Districts Lose Voter Share
|
# Districts Gain Voter Share
|
# Districts No Change
|
|
Democratic
|
42
|
0
|
0
|
|
Republican
|
42
|
0
|
0
|
|
Non-Partisan
|
2
|
40
|
0
|
|
Other
|
0
|
42
|
0
|
In 29 districts (69.05%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of 2 districts over September, 2016
This data reinforces the fact that voters are disillusioned with the current state of the political landscape and are expressing that disillusionment by not affiliating with either major political party or any political party. I do not believe the parties can reverse this feeling in the near future. They can however, recognize the landscape and adapt to it. The Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017) provides the tool.