GOP Posts Voter Share Gains in Lead-Up to Primary

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

Given what has happened in recent months, voter registration numbers for May show something different. The Republican Party not only posted voter share gains across all tracked demographics; the Democratic Party and Non-Partisan lost share while minor parties held even, they also led in rate of raw voter increase

.  Given that May is the lead-up month to the state and local primary election, is this an indication of interest in some of the legislative races? As of June 1st, the Republican Party also leads in turnout, 19 percent to 17 percent. Or, to play devil’s advocate, could some strategic voting be happening?  

State-Wide

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D2,3540.38%38.52%-0.04%
R3,8700.73%32.78%0.08%
NP1,3890.38%22.60%-0.03%
IAP2960.42%4.38%0.00%
LIB520.33%0.97%0.00%
Other30.02%0.75%0.00%
Total not D or R  28.70%-0.03

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D2,2310.47%42.12%-0.04%
R2,5040.78%28.62%0.06%
NP1,3260.50%23.51%-0.02%
IAP2990.64%4.16%0.00%
LIB410.42%0.88%0.00%
Other160.20%0.72%0.00%
Total not D or R  29.26%-0.02

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D1430.14%35.92%-0.03%
R3440.33%35.69%0.04%
NP1130.18%21.65%-0.01%
IAP160.12%4.43%0.00%
LIB110.30%1.25%0.00%
Other-3-0.10%1.06%0.00%
Total not D or R  28.39%-0.01

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D-20-0.04%22.57%-0.11%
R1,0220.97%51.39%0.26%
NP-50-0.13%18.97%-0.11%
IAP-19-0.17%5.47%-0.03%
LIB00.00%1.11%0.00%
Other-10-0.98%0.49%-0.01%
Total not D or R  26.04%-0.15

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D3210.19%39.76%-0.06%
R6640.71%21.48%0.08%
NP3430.25%31.53%-0.02%
IAP760.38%4.54%0.00%
LIB50.07%1.63%0.00%
Other10.02%1.05%0.00%
Total not D or R  38.76%-0.02

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D1,2870.49%38.47%-0.03%
R2,1010.75%41.11%0.08%
NP3420.32%15.40%-0.04%
IAP830.29%4.10%-0.01%
LIB70.23%0.44%0.00%
Other-10-0.31%0.47%0.00%
Total not D or R  20.42%-0.05

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic400
Republican040
Non-Partisan301
IAP112
LIB004
Other103

In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic1920
Republican1182
Non-Partisan1542
IAP678
LIB759
Other9210

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic3561
Republican6342
Non-Partisan25116
IAP14217
LIB171015
Other17322

In 35 districts (83.33%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

We are into the final week of early voting. Indications are that use of same-day registration is light and probably won’t impact voter share in June. What will be interesting to see is the turnout by party and whether the favorites win or there are some dark-horse surprises.

Voter Share Changes Return To Normal Ranges But With Democratic Share Loses

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

April voter registration numbers for April showed a major reversal for the Democratic Party with voter share loses across all tracked demographics (except Washoe County) and in a majority of Congressional, State Senate, and State Assembly districts. While shifts in voter share returned to normal ranges, it is significant given gains over the past few months. Conversely the Republican Party only lost voter share in Washoe County while Non-Partisan only lost share in the rural counties. In legislative districts, loses and gains were evenly divided for the GOP with Non-Partisan seeing significant gains. What is also of interest is voter share gains by the Independent American Party almost mirror those for Non-Partisan raising the recurring question of how many of those voters meant to register as Non-Partisan.

State-Wide

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D2,3030.37%38.57%-0.04%
R2,5120.48%32.71%0.00%
NP2,1260.58%22.62%0.03%
IAP4530.64%4.38%0.01%
LIB550.35%0.97%0.00%
Other940.78%0.75%0.00%
Total not D or R  28.73%0.04

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D9,5002.05%42.16%-0.05%
R2,7130.86%28.56%0.00%
NP4,1301.60%23.52%0.04%
IAP5121.12%4.16%0.01%
LIB350.36%0.88%0.00%
Other-18-0.22%0.72%0.00%
Total not D or R  29.27%0.05

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D3360.32%35.95%0.01%
R1900.18%35.65%-0.04%
NP2600.41%21.65%0.02%
IAP530.41%4.44%0.01%
LIB160.44%1.25%0.00%
Other120.39%1.06%0.00%
Total not D or R  28.40%0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D-73-0.16%22.68%-0.08%
R5270.50%51.13%0.16%
NP-82-0.21%19.08%-0.07%
IAP-2-0.02%5.50%-0.01%
LIB60.26%1.12%0.00%
Other30.29%0.49%0.00%
Total not D or R  26.19%-0.08

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D3670.21%39.81%-0.05%
R3610.39%21.40%0.01%
NP5400.39%31.56%0.02%
IAP1370.70%4.54%0.02%
LIB100.14%1.63%0.00%
Other170.37%1.06%0.00%
Total not D or R  38.79%0.04

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D1,2630.48%38.50%-0.02%
R1,6120.58%41.03%0.01%
NP6150.58%15.44%0.01%
IAP1860.66%38.50%-0.02%
LIB70.23%41.03%0.01%
Other230.71%15.44%0.01%
Total not D or R  20.47%0.01

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic400
Republican013
Non-Partisan130
IAP031
LIB004
Other013

In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic1911
Republican8103
Non-Partisan2172
IAP2136
LIB4116
Other1713

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic3552
Republican19194
Non-Partisan7314
IAP10257
LIB12921
Other61323

In 35 districts (83.33%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of one over February.

With the current personal interaction restrictions due to the Covid-19 virus, campaigns have had to drastically change their campaigning techniques. This includes their voter registration techniques. With close of normal registration for the primary election two week away, this could be having an impact. We’ll know more after same-day registration numbers are known.  

Democratic Party Posts Significant Voter Share Gains; GOP Similar Loses

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

The Nevada secretary of state has released voter registration numbers for March and the state Democratic Party has to be happy. At the same time the state Republican Party has to be hoping this is not the start of a new trend.

Normal changes in voter share are usually in the hundredths of one percent. Changes of a tenth of one percent are not common. However, in March, Democratic Party voter share gains averaged almost three-tenths of one percent while Republican loses averaged just under two-tenths of one percent.

Washoe County now has more Democratic voters than Republican for the first time in a decade and the party continues to pick up voter share in the rural counties and among older voters. Similar gains and loses were recorded in Congressional and state senate and assembly districts. Non-Partisan voter share is also showing a decline.

State-Wide

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D12,0391.97%38.60%0.26%
R3,4670.66%32.70%-0.20%
NP4,4441.23%22.60%-0.01%
IAP4520.64%4.37%-0.03%
LIB60.04%0.98%-0.01%
Other-93-0.76%0.75%-0.02%
Total not D or R  28.70%-0.07

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D9,5002.05%42.22%0.22%
R2,7130.86%28.56%-0.19%
NP4,1301.60%23.48%0.02%
IAP5121.12%4.15%-0.02%
LIB350.36%0.88%-0.01%
Other-18-0.22%0.72%-0.01%
Total not D or R  29.22%-0.02

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D1,6241.58%35.94%0.33%
R2740.27%35.69%-0.14%
NP550.09%21.63%-0.12%
IAP10.01%4.43%-0.03%
LIB-21-0.58%1.25%-0.02%
Other-54-1.72%1.06%-0.03%
Total not D or R  28.37%-0.20

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D9151.99%22.76%0.27%
R4800.46%50.96%-0.15%
NP2590.66%19.15%-0.02%
IAP-61-0.53%5.51%-0.07%
LIB-8-0.35%1.12%-0.01%
Other-21-2.02%0.49%-0.01%
Total not D or R  26.27%-0.11

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D4,8912.91%39.86%0.41%
R6720.73%21.39%-0.24%
NP2,0881.55%31.54%-0.09%
IAP2451.27%4.52%-0.03%
LIB-8-0.11%1.64%-0.03%
Other-32-0.69%1.06%-0.03%
Total not D or R  38.76%-0.18

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D3,7941.47%38.52%0.19%
R1,9790.71%41.01%-0.11%
NP8210.79%15.43%-0.03%
IAP320.11%4.11%-0.04%
LIB-6-0.20%0.45%-0.01%
Other-47-1.44%0.47%-0.01%
Total not D or R  20.46%-0.09

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic040
Republican400
Non-Partisan121
IAP301
LIB400
Other400

In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic1191
Republican2100
Non-Partisan1182
IAP1731
LIB1803
Other1704

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic2400
Republican4200
Non-Partisan22173
IAP3381
LIB27114
Other32010

In 35 districts (83.33%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of one over February.

The secretary of state has announced the June 2020 primary election will be conducted by mail because of the COVID – 19 virus pandemic. Each county will maintain at least one in-person voting location during both early voting and on election day to accommodate same-day voter registration and handle any issues a voter may have with their mail ballot. The secretary of state’s office and various groups are active in encouraging voters to verify their registration especially their mailing address and signature. Since the primary includes no major state races; U.S. Senator or state office, it is normally a low turnout election. Whether the convenience of being able to vote by mail will increase registration leading up to the primary is unknown. We also don’t know the impact on voter registration the closure of all Department of Motor Vehicle offices because of the virus will have on Non-Partisan registration due to automatic voter registration nor how that will impact same-day voter registrations. April and the normal close of voter registration in mid-May for the election should provide some answers.

Democratic Party Gains Voter Share Despite Voter Registration Maintenance

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

It may be another month before we know the impact of same-day voter registration during early caucus voting and on caucus day, however, if the February voter registration numbers are any indication, voters wanted to participate.

February was a routine voter roll maintenance month. Normally, with very minor exception, raw numbers and voter share percentages decline across the board. Not this time.

Statewide, in Clark and Washoe counties, in the rurals, and among voters 18 to 34 and over 55 years of age, the Republican Party, Non-Partisan, the American Independent Party, the Libertarian Party, and other minor parties all lost voter share (Non-Partisan gained share in the rurals) while the Democratic Party recorded sizeable gains across the board. Since the processing of same-day caucus registration reportedly is still underway, we have to assume most of the Democratic gain is due to voters registering or changing party affiliation before the caucus so they could participate in the process.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 444 0.07% 38.34% 0.20%
R -2,989 -0.57% 32.90% -0.04%
NP -2,401 -0.66% 22.61% -0.05%
IAP -1,195 -1.68% 4.40% -0.05%
LIB -467 -2.88% 0.99% -0.02%
Other -724 -5.60% 0.77% -0.04%
Total not D or R     28.76% -0.16

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -3,145 -0.68% 42.00% 0.25%
R -4,494 -1.40% 28.75% -0.04%
NP -4,158 -1.58% 23.47% -0.07%
IAP -1,300 -2.76% 4.16% -0.06%
LIB -452 -4.41% 0.89% -0.03%
Other -686 -7.87% 0.73% -0.05%
Total not D or R     29.25% -0.21

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 2,755 2.76% 35.61% 0.48%
R 514 0.50% 35.83% -0.31%
NP 590 0.95% 21.75% -0.09%
IAP 18 0.14% 4.46% -0.04%
LIB -17 -0.47% 1.26% -0.02%
Other -21 -0.67% 1.09% -0.02%
Total not D or R     28.56% -0.17

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 834 1.84% 22.48% 0.08%
R 991 0.96% 51.12% -0.28%
NP 1,167 3.06% 19.17% 0.29%
IAP 49 0.43% 5.58% -0.06%
LIB 2 0.09% 1.13% -0.02%
Other -17 -1.61% 0.51% -0.02%
Total not D or R     26.39% 0.19

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,046 0.63% 39.45% 0.51%
R -1,306 -1.40% 21.62% -0.16%
NP -1,520 -1.12% 31.63% -0.14%
IAP -505 -2.54% 4.55% -0.09%
LIB -258 -3.50% 1.67% -0.05%
Other -347 -7.00% 1.08% -0.07%
Total not D or R     38.93% -0.35

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 15 0.01% 38.34% 0.08%
R -610 -0.22% 41.12% -0.01%
NP -188 -0.18% 15.46% 0.00%
IAP -332 -1.17% 4.15% -0.04%
LIB -82 -2.63% 0.45% -0.01%
Other -126 -3.71% 0.48% -0.02%
Total not D or R     20.54% -0.07

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 0 4 0
Republican 2 2 0
Non-Partisan 3 1 0
IAP 4 0 0
LIB 4 0 0
Other 4 0 0

In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 0 21 0
Republican 17 3 1
Non-Partisan 14 6 1
IAP 20 0 1
LIB 20 0 1
Other 21 0 0

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is a decrease of one.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 2 40 0
Republican 35 6 1
Non-Partisan 24 18 0
IAP 39 1 2
LIB 38 0 4
Other 38 1 3

In 34 districts (80.95%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is a decrease of two.

The end of March numbers should provide the total impact of the Democratic Party’s registration efforts leading up to the caucus, including same day registration. They will also give us another look at the impact of automatic voter registration. We’re also less than three months from the start of early voting for the state and local primaries and the implementation of same-day registration for all elections.

Automatic Voter Registration; Non-Partisan Registration Skyrockets

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

With the start of the new year, automatic voter registration (AVR) in Nevada became effective. In what was probably a surprise to no one, the change brought with it a dramatic increase in new voter registrations as well as a surge in voters registered as Non-Partisan.

During January 2020, over 27,000 new voters were added to the active rolls. The percent of growth, usually not exceeding one or two percent across demographics and party saw Non-Partisan exceed four percent in most areas. The even more important number, voter share saw changes which are normally in the hundredths of a percent range exceed one-half of one percent. The increase in Non-Partisan voter share was staggering. The statewide increase of 0.5% was more than double the total increase for 2019. The increase among voters 18 to 34 years of age, 0.66% exceeded the yearly increase for 2018. The district-level changes were equally high with both major parties losing voter share in all Congressional, state senate, and state assembly districts except two senate and assembly districts where the Democratic Party gained slightly while Non-Partisan gained roughly one-half a percent in all districts.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 7,912 1.31% 38.14% -0.16%
R 3,972 0.76% 32.94% -0.32%
NP 13,996 4.01% 22.65% 0.50%
IAP 1,020 1.45% 4.45% -0.01%
LIB 203 1.27% 1.01% 0.00%
Other 46 0.36% 0.81% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.92% 0.48

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 6,516 1.42% 41.75% -0.20%
R 2,869 0.90% 28.79% -0.29%
NP 10,554 4.19% 23.54% 0.51%
IAP 803 1.73% 4.23% -0.01%
LIB 129 1.27% 0.92% -0.01%
Other 34 0.39% 0.78% -0.01%
Total not D or R     29.47% 0.48

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,015 1.03% 35.13% -0.04%
R 370 0.36% 36.13% -0.28%
NP 1,700 2.82% 21.84% 0.36%
IAP 123 0.97% 4.50% -0.02%
LIB 26 0.72% 1.28% -0.01%
Other 3 0.10% 1.11% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.74% 0.32

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 381 0.85% 22.41% -0.15%
R 733 0.71% 51.39% -0.42%
NP 1,742 4.79% 18.88% 0.59%
IAP 123 1.09% 5.64% -0.02%
LIB 48 2.12% 1.15% 0.01%
Other 9 0.86% 0.52% 0.00%
Total not D or R     26.19% 0.58

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 3,239 1.98% 38.94% -0.22%
R 795 0.86% 21.78% -0.37%
NP 6,184 4.76% 31.77% 0.66%
IAP 412 2.12% 4.64% -0.02%
LIB 94 1.29% 1.72% -0.02%
Other -3 -0.06% 1.16% -0.03%
Total not D or R     39.28% 0.59

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 2,383 0.93% 38.26% -0.11%
R 2,063 0.75% 41.13% -0.20%
NP 3,348 3.31% 15.46% 0.31%
IAP 324 1.16% 4.19% 0.00%
LIB 43 1.40% 0.46% 0.00%
Other 29 0.86% 0.50% 0.00%
Total not D or R     20.61% 0.31

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 4 0 0
Republican 4 0 0
Non-Partisan 0 4 0
IAP 4 0 0
LIB 2 0 2
Other 4 0 0

In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is a major change.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 19 2 0
Republican 21 0 0
Non-Partisan 0 21 0
IAP 14 4 3
LIB 10 3 8
Other 15 1 5

In 17 districts (80.95%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of one.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 40 2 0
Republican 42 0 0
Non-Partisan 0 42 0
IAP 29 8 5
LIB 20 9 13
Other 26 2 14

In 36 districts (85.71%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of one.

There can be no question of the impact of AVR. The question of how many voters registered as Non-Partisan intentionally and how many were the result of the default still remains. That question may be partially answered, depending on turnout, by the number of same-day registrations at the Democratic Party presidential caucus this month and the statewide primary election in June. February numbers will give us another indication.

Major Parties Lose Voter Share In 2019

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

With minor exception, both the Democratic and Republican Party lost voter share in 2019 while Non-Partisan and minor parties posted gains. While the over-all changes were small, the Republican Party lost significant share in Washoe County and among voters 18 to 34 years of age. At the same time those younger voters appeared to have drifted away from Non-Partisan, choosing to register with the Democratic Party. Conversely, voters over 55 left the Democratic Party with a good number of those voters registering as Non-Partisan. December showed a similar picture with the Republican Party losing share even in the rural counties and among older voters, those over the age of 55.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share % % Voter Share Change 2018 – 2019
D 4,356 0.73% 38.29% 0.01% -0.10%
R 2,836 0.54% 33.25% -0.05% -0.16%
NP 2,878 0.83% 22.15% 0.03% 0.21%
IAP 770 1.11% 4.47% 0.02% 0.11%
LIB 148 0.93% 1.02% 0.00% 0.01%
Other 19 0.15% 0.82% 0.00% -0.08%
Total not D or R     28.45% 0.05 0.25

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share % % Voter Share Change 2018 – 2019
D 3,631 0.80% 41.95% 0.01% -0.06%
R 1,812 0.57% 29.07% -0.06% -0.17%
NP 2,178 0.87% 23.03% 0.02% 0.18%
IAP 585 1.28% 4.23% 0.02% 0.14%
LIB 99 0.99% 0.93% 0.00% 0.01%
Other 17 0.20% 0.79% 0.00% -0.09%
Total not D or R     28.98% 0.04 0.24

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share % % Voter Share Change 2018 – 2019
D 519 0.53% 35.17% 0.02% 0.05%
R 314 0.31% 36.42% -0.05% -0.47%
NP 330 0.55% 21.48% 0.02% 0.38%
IAP 90 0.71% 4.52% 0.01% 0.09%
LIB 23 0.64% 1.29% 0.00% 0.03%
Other 2 0.06% 1.12% 0.00% -0.09%
Total not D or R     28.41% 0.03 0.41

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share % % Voter Share Change 2018 – 2019
D 206 0.46% 22.56% -0.06% -0.24%
R 710 0.69% 51.81% -0.01% 0.10%
NP 370 1.03% 18.30% 0.06% 0.17%
IAP 95 0.85% 5.67% 0.01% -0.01%
LIB 26 1.16% 1.14% 0.01% 0.01%
Other 0 0.00% 0.53% 0.00% -0.02%
Total not D or R     25.64% 0.08 0.15

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share % % Voter Share Change 2018 – 2019
D 1,461 0.90% 39.16% 0.06% 0.46%
R 455 0.49% 22.15% -0.06% -0.60%
NP 898 0.70% 31.11% -0.02% 0.15%
IAP 252 1.31% 4.66% 0.03% 0.15%
LIB 73 1.01% 1.74% 0.00% 0.01%
Other -27 -0.54% 1.19% -0.02% -0.17%
Total not D or R     38.69% -0.01  

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share % % Voter Share Change 2018 – 2019
D 1,655 0.65% 38.37% -0.02% -0.35%
R 1,803 0.66% 41.33% -0.02% 0.05%
NP 850 0.85% 15.15% 0.02% 0.22%
IAP 267 0.96% 4.19% 0.01% 0.09%
LIB 30 0.98% 0.46% 0.00% 0.02%
Other 8 0.24% 0.50% 0.00% -0.02%
Total not D or R     20.30% 0.03 0.30

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 1 2 1
Republican 4 0 0
Non-Partisan 1 3 0
IAP 0 4 0
LIB 0 1 3
Other 3 0 1

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 10 11 0
Republican 20 0 1
Non-Partisan 5 16 0
IAP 1 16 4
LIB 1 7 13
Other 11 0 10

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 21 17 4
Republican 33 4 5
Non-Partisan 12 29 1
IAP 5 28 9
LIB 5 14 23
Other 21 5 16

In 35 districts (83%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

Just how voter registration trends will change in the months leading up to the general election is anyone’s guess. However, recent voter share loses in the GOP do not bode well for that party should they continue. Could same-day voter registration impact this? I believe that is up to the campaigns and the parties.

Nevada Democratic Party Continues Voter Share Gains as GOP Drops

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

For the second month running, the Nevada Democratic Party has increased voter share while Republican Party share declines and Non-Partisan gains slow. This pattern is apparent in both voter share and rate of growth. While I believe it’s too early to declare a new trend, I think November numbers show growing interest in the upcoming Democratic presidential caucus.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 4,204 0.71% 38.28% 0.05%
R 1,990 0.38% 33.31% -0.06%
NP 2,079 0.60% 22.13% 0.01%
IAP 595 0.86% 4.45% 0.01%
LIB 127 0.81% 1.02% 0.00%
Other -26 -0.20% 0.82% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.41% 0.01

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 3,607 0.80% 41.94% 0.04%
R 1,628 0.52% 29.13% -0.06%
NP 1,796 0.72% 23.00% 0.00%
IAP 529 1.17% 4.21% 0.02%
LIB 104 1.05% 0.92% 0.00%
Other -6 -0.07% 0.80% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.93% 0.01

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 672 0.69% 35.14% 0.05%
R 388 0.38% 36.47% -0.06%
NP 378 0.63% 21.46% 0.02%
IAP 83 0.66% 4.51% 0.00%
LIB 33 0.92% 1.29% 0.00%
Other -9 -0.28% 1.13% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.38% 0.01

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -75 -0.17% 22.61% -0.01%
R -26 -0.03% 51.82% 0.05%
NP -95 -0.26% 18.24% -0.03%
IAP -17 -0.15% 5.66% 0.00%
LIB -10 -0.44% 1.14% 0.00%
Other -11 -1.04% 0.53% 0.00%
Total not D or R     25.57% -0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,431 0.89% 39.10% 0.13%
R 70 0.08% 22.21% -0.11%
NP 587 0.46% 31.12% -0.03%
IAP 168 0.88% 4.63% 0.02%
LIB 54 0.76% 1.73% 0.00%
Other -35 -0.70% 1.20% -0.02%
Total not D or R     38.69% -0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,766 0.70% 38.39% 0.02%
R 1,597 0.59% 41.34% -0.03%
NP 678 0.68% 15.13% 0.00%
IAP 222 0.81% 4.18% 0.01%
LIB 31 1.03% 0.46% 0.00%
Other 18 0.54% 0.51% 0.00%
Total not D or R     20.27% 0.01

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 0 4 0
Republican 4 0 0
Non-Partisan 1 2 1
IAP 0 2 2
LIB 0 1 3
Other 3 0 1

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 4 17 0
Republican 18 2 1
Non-Partisan 6 13 2
IAP 2 13 6
LIB 3 8 10
Other 9 0 12

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 10 31 1
Republican 38 3 1
Non-Partisan 20 20 2
IAP 8 29 5
LIB 9 17 16
Other 22 2 18

In 35 districts (83%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

Most monthly changes in voter share are in the low hundredths of a percent. Democratic Party gains of almost one-quarter of one percent with corresponding Republican loses over the past two months can not be ignored. We’ll look at annual changes next month.

Pending Democratic Caucus Could Be Impacting Voter Registration

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

Is interest in the upcoming Democratic Party presidential caucus spurring an increase in Democratic Party voter registration? Given the across the board increases in October along with corresponding decreases for the Republican Party, one cannot help but wonder. Adding to this speculation is a slowing in Non-Partisan registrations.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 4,961 0.84% 38.23% 0.17%
R -656 -0.13% 33.37% -0.17%
NP 1,489 0.43% 22.12% 0.01%
IAP 139 0.20% 4.43% -0.01%
LIB 45 0.29% 1.01% 0.00%
Other -79 -0.61% 0.83% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.40% -0.01

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 5,888 1.32% 41.90% 0.06%
R 2,784 0.89% 29.19% -0.08%
NP 3,041 1.24% 23.00% 0.02%
IAP 630 1.41% 4.19% 0.01%
LIB 165 1.69% 0.92% 0.00%
Other 11 0.13% 0.80% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.92% 0.02

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 326 0.34% 35.10% 0.03%
R -11 -0.01% 36.53% -0.09%
NP 297 0.50% 21.45% 0.06%
IAP 79 0.63% 4.50% 0.02%
LIB 9 0.25% 1.28% 0.00%
Other -29 -0.91% 1.14% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.37% 0.07

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -1,253 -2.73% 22.63% 0.19%
R -3,429 -3.24% 51.77% 0.17%
NP -1,849 -4.87% 18.26% -0.25%
IAP -570 -4.85% 5.66% -0.08%
LIB -129 -5.42% 1.14% -0.02%
Other -61 -5.46% 0.53% -0.01%
Total not D or R     25.60% -0/36

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,857 1.17% 38.97% 0.40%
R -1,120 -1.20% 22.31% -0.30%
NP -21 -0.02% 31.15% -0.05%
IAP -65 -0.34% 4.62% -0.02%
LIB -14 -0.20% 1.73% -0.01%
Other -47 -0.93% 1.22% -0.01%
Total not D or R     38.72% -0.09

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 1,495 0.59% 38.37% 0.04%
R 847 0.31% 41.37% -0.07%
NP 643 0.65% 15.12% 0.03%
IAP 164 0.60% 4.17% 0.00%
LIB 13 0.43% 0.46% 0.00%
Other -16 -0.48% 0.51% 0.00%
Total not D or R     20.26% 0.03

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 0 4 0
Republican 4 0 0
Non-Partisan 1 2 1
IAP 1 1 2
LIB 1 1 2
Other 4 0 0

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 2 18 1
Republican 19 2 0
Non-Partisan 5 14 2
IAP 4 15 2
LIB 4 9 8
Other 13 0 8

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 9 33 0
Republican 36 3 3
Non-Partisan 12 27 3
IAP 13 22 7
LIB 11 19 12
Other 27 1 14

In 35 districts (83%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

If this is a new trend, will it continue past the caucus into the June Nevada primary election? Will we see an increase in turnout? We will be watching.

Voter Roll Maintenance Impacts Non-Partisan Voter Share

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

September once again was a month where routine required maintenance on the voter rolls was performed.  During this process, voters were either moved to the inactive rolls or dropped entirely. While the number of active voters dropped, the number of total voters increased. The tables below reflect the active rolls and unlike other maintenance months, the largest impact in September was on the number and share of Non-Partisan.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -11,845 -1.97% 38.06% -0.02%
R -8,432 -1.60% 33.54% 0.11%
NP -8,174 -2.33% 22.11% -0.09%
IAP -1,159 -1.66% 4.44% 0.01%
LIB -399 -2.48% 1.01% -0.01%
Other -419 -3.13% 0.84% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.40% -0.09

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -12,591 -2.74% 41.84% 0.08%
R -8,777 -2.74% 29.27% 0.06%
NP -8,625 -3.40% 22.98% -0.11%
IAP -1,271 -2.77% 4.18% 0.01%
LIB -429 -4.21% 0.92% -0.01%
Other -406 -4.48% 0.81% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.89% -0.12

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 626 0.65% 35.07% 0.09%
R 123 0.12% 36.63% -0.10%
NP 273 0.46% 21.39% 0.02%
IAP 56 0.45% 4.49% 0.00%
LIB 20 0.57% 1.28% 0.00%
Other -19 -0.59% 1.15% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.31% 0.01

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 120 0.26% 22.43% -0.01%
R 222 0.21% 51.60% -0.04%
NP 178 0.47% 18.52% 0.03%
IAP 56 0.48% 5.74% 0.01%
LIB 10 0.42% 1.16% 0.00%
Other 6 0.54% 0.55% 0.00%
Total not D or R     25.97% 0.04

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -4,507 -2.76% 38.58% 0.09%
R -2,890 -3.01% 22.62% 0.00%
NP -4,381 -3.30% 31.20% -0.10%
IAP -460 -2.35% 4.64% 0.03%
LIB -241 -3.26% 1.74% 0.00%
Other -234 -4.41% 1.23% -0.02%
Total not D or R     38.81% -0.09

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D -2,958 -1.16% 38.33% -0.05%
R -2,467 -0.90% 41.44% 0.06%
NP -1,123 -1.12% 15.10% -0.01%
IAP -282 -1.02% 4.17% 0.00%
LIB -28 -0.92% 0.46% 0.00%
Other -72 -2.10% 0.51% -0.01%
Total not D or R     20.24% -0.02

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 0 4 0
Republican 1 3 0
Non-Partisan 3 1 0
IAP 0 4 0
LIB 3 1 0
Other 4 0 0

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 1 19 1
Republican 8 11 2
Non-Partisan 16 3 2
IAP 5 11 5
LIB 14 3 4
Other 15 0 6

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 3 39 0
Republican 17 20 5
Non-Partisan 32 10 0
IAP 15 21 6
LIB 23 10 9
Other 30 0 12

In 35 districts (83%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

With four months remaining before the party presidential caucuses; Republican Party leadership has voted to not hold a caucus but rather award all delegates to President Trump, and seven months before the state primary election, voter registration leading up to these events should be a good indicator of interest in the election. The big question remains is what will be the impact of same-day voter registration?

Presidential Campaign Season Not Helping Major Parties – They Still Lose Voter Share

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform

With the presidential campaign season under way, August 2019 voter registration data still shows both the Democratic and Republican Party losing voter share and with a lower growth rate than Non-Partisan or the minor parties. With the exception of Washoe County and among voters 18 to 34 years of age where the Democratic Party voter share gained slightly, loses extended across all tracked demographics and throughout Congressional, state senate, and state assembly districts.

State-Wide

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 5,340 0.90% 38.08% -0.01%
R 3,583 0.68% 33.43% -0.08%
NP 4,355 1.26% 22.20% 0.07%
IAP 923 1.34% 4.43% 0.02%
LIB 255 1.61% 1.02% 0.01%
Other 23 0.17% 0.85% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.50% 0.09

 Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Clark County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 4,196 0.92% 41.76% -0.02%
R 2,324 0.73% 29.21% -0.07%
NP 3,137 1.25% 23.10% 0.06%
IAP 697 1.54% 4.18% 0.02%
LIB 164 1.64% 0.93% 0.01%
Other 18 0.20% 0.83% -0.01%
Total not D or R     29.03% 0.08%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Washoe County

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 989 1.03% 34.98% 0.02%
R 718 0.71% 36.72% -0.10%
NP 772 1.32% 21.38% 0.07%
IAP 164 1.34% 4.48% 0.02%
LIB 49 1.40% 1.28% 0.01%
Other 3 0.09% 1.16% -0.01%
Total not D or R     28.31% 0.09

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

Rural Counties

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 155 0.34% 22.44% -0.06%
R 541 0.52% 51.64% -0.05%
NP 446 1.19% 18.48% 0.11%
IAP 62 0.53% 5.73% 0.00%
LIB 42 1.80% 1.16% 0.01%
Other 2 0.18% 0.54% 0.00%
Total not D or R     25.91% 0.12

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

18 – 34 Year Old

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 424 0.26% 38.48% 0.03%
R -270 -0.28% 22.62% -0.10%
NP 574 0.43% 31.30% 0.08%
IAP 78 0.40% 4.61% 0.01%
LIB 26 0.35% 1.74% 0.00%
Other -59 -1.10% 1.25% -0.02%
Total not D or R     38.90% 0.07%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and other

55+

Party Change in # Voters % Change % Voter Share Difference in Voter Share %
D 2,066 0.82% 38.37% -0.02%
R 2,237 0.82% 41.38% -0.02%
NP 1,058 1.07% 15.11% 0.03%
IAP 349 1.28% 4.17% 0.02%
LIB 46 1.54% 0.46% 0.00%
Other 36 1.06% 0.52% 0.00%
Total not D or R     20.25% 0.05%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, and others

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 2 0 2
Republican 4 0 0
Non-Partisan 4 0 0
IAP 4 0 0
LIB 4 0 0
Other 3 0 1

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 (75 percent of the districts) continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 13 5 3
Republican 19 2 2
Non-Partisan 0 20 1
IAP 1 19 1
LIB 2 15 4
Other 11 0 10

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party # Districts Lose Voter Share # Districts Gain Voter Share # Districts No Change
Democratic 25 11 6
Republican 37 4 1
Non-Partisan 3 39 0
IAP 2 36 4
LIB 4 28 10
Other 24 3 15

In 35 districts (83%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is a gain of 1 from July 2019

Five months remain until the 2020 Democratic and Republican Party (GOP still has not confirmed leadership intent to forgo the caucus and award all delegates to President Trump by acclimation) caucus; nine months before the state and local primary elections. Within that time, automatic voter registration, which should increase the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan (it’s the default if a person does not choose a party) and same-day voter registration become effective. Since the caucus and primary are only open to party members, both major parties have their work cut out to reverse this on-going trend. Either way, it looks more and more like voters not affiliated with either major political party will continue to determine the outcome of elections in November 2020.