Category: Voter Registration Trends

Voter registration closed for the primary election on May 24, 2016 and the numbers are not good news for either major party. Nearly across all demographics, both the Democratic and Republican Parties lost voter share while Non-Partisan and minor parties gained. And while all groups increased voters, the rate of growth for Non-Partisan and minor parties also exceeded that of the major political parties.

Another surprising statistic is where the growth in minor party registration occurred. In addition to the Independent American Party (IAP) and the Libertarian Party (Lib), there are eight political parties that have members but do not qualify for ballot access. The IAP is by far the largest of the minor parties with over 57,000 registered voters. However, the growth in the Libertarian Party and the eight small parties out-distanced the IAP with the small parties exceeding 10 percent growth in three of the six demographics followed.

State-Wide

Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.

IAP +0.9%; Lib +2.52%; other 8 parties +10.52%

Clark County

Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.

IAP +0.97%; Lib +2.54%; other 8 parties +16.22%

 Washoe County

Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.

IAP +0.9%; Lib +1.48%; other 8 parties +0.55%

Rural Counties

Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.

IAP +0.63%; Lib +4.2%; other 8 parties +0.12%

18 – 34 Year Old

Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.

IAP +1.38%; Lib +2.9%; other 8 parties +15.78%

55+

Other includes IAP, Lib, and 8 parties without ballot access.

IAP +0.58%; Lib +1.31%; other 8 parties +4.78%

 In the legislature, both assembly and senate districts remain unchanged from February with 11 senate districts (52.38%) and 21 assembly districts (50%) having the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or total not registered as either Democratic or Republican either exceeding or  within five percent of one of the major political parties. However, the trend is the same; unaffiliated voters are increasing voter share while the Democratic and Republican Party lose.

The fact that the trend of voters leaving the Democratic and Republican Party continues is not surprising. The fact it continues in spite of intense efforts to energize voters by both major parties immediately before the primary election should send a clear message that voters want the system to change.

The 2017 Nevada legislative session can address this problem by enacting the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017)

Given the change in voter registration trends favoring the major parties leading up to the presidential caucuses, the question was will that trend continue all the way to the June, 2016 primary. The answer is a resounding NO!

The numbers for April, 2016 were released May 2^nd by the secretary of state and Non-Partisan has returned as the fastest growing block of voters. The only demographic where this not true in in the rural counties where the GOP continues to outpace the other parties. State-wide, in Clark and Washoe Counties, among 18 – 34 year olds and those 55 years old and over, Non-Partisan leads in the percentage of growth and the percentage increase of voter share.

State-Wide

2^nd consecutive month where GOP lost more than ¼ of 1 percent

Clark County

Washoe County

 Rural Counties

18 – 34 Year Old

2^nd consecutive month where GOP lost more than 1/3 of 1 percent

55+

In the legislature, both assembly and senate districts remain unchanged from February with 11 senate districts (52.38%) and 21 assembly districts (50%) having the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or total not registered as either Democratic or Republican either exceeding or  within five percent of one of the major political parties. However, the trend is the same, unaffiliated voters are increasing voter share while the Democratic and Republican Party lose.

There is no reason to expect this trend to reverse before the close of registration for the primary election in May. Given that, I believe it is a safe assumption that turnout for the primary will once again be around 25 percent.

The 2017 Nevada legislative session can address this problem by enacting the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017)

As expected, with the presidential caucuses just completed and primary election campaigns kicking into high gear, Nevada voter registration statistics for March, 2016 continue to show a slight shift away from the growth of Non-Partisan voters. With minor exception, all registration groups; Democratic, Republican, Non-Partisan, and minor parties gained voters across all demographics. However in the more important statistic, voter share, the Democratic Party was the only group to increase voter share across all sectors of the electorate. The numbers are the complete opposite for the Republican Party, Non-Partisan, and minor parties. Not only did they lose voter share, they lost share in all sectors.

If this trend continues until close of registration for the general election it does not bode well for Republican chances to retain control of the state legislature or at-risk congressional seats. Conversely, if the trend subsides after close of registration for the primary and reverts back to Non-Partisan gaining voter share at the expense of the two major parties, are all bets off. My instinct tells me the later will come to pass.

The Non-Partisan and minor party loss of voter share leading up to the primary election is normal when primary elections are closed, restricted to those registered to vote in one of the major parties. If a person registered to vote as Non-Partisan or in one of the minor parties wishes to vote in a primary, they must re-register in the desired party. Since the general election has no party restriction, chances are these voters will switch back to their original registration following the primary. But will these new party members actually vote in the primary? Primary election turnout has averaged below 25 percent since 2000. 

State-Wide

Democratic increase Feb / Mar in voter share over Republican +1.39%

Clark County

Democratic increase Feb / Mar in voter share over Republican +0.91%

 Washoe County

Republican voter share over Democratic decreased Feb / Mar -0.96%

Rural Counties

Republican voter share over Democratic decreased Feb / Mar -0.18%

18 – 34 Year Old

Democratic increase Feb / Mar in voter share over Republican +1.53%

55+

Republican voter share over Democratic decreased Feb / Mar -0.07%

 In the legislature, both assembly and senate districts remain unchanged from February with 11 senate districts (52.38%) and 21 assembly districts (50%) having the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or total not registered as either Democratic or Republican either exceeding or  within five percent of one of the major political parties.

Given the low turnout of primary elections, it is questionable if the closed primary’s systemic exclusion of eligible voters produces the best results; effective and efficient government. This is especially questionable in races where only one party has candidates running in a primary and no Non-Partisan or minor party candidate has filed for the partisan office. Under a change to the Nevada elections statute made by the legislature in 2015, the winner of the primary becomes the sole candidate in the general election. In simple terms this means 20 – 25 percent of one political party’s registered voters (perhaps less than 10 percent of the total electorate) elects the office holder representing the entire constituency made up of voters of all persuasions.

Primary elections have been part of our election process for so long it’s possible some voters believe those elections and the parties themselves are part of the U.S. and / or Nevada Constitution.  Truth is political parties and primary elections are not mentioned anywhere in the U.S. Constitution. The Nevada Constitution does mention political parties but only in the context of requiring vacancies in partisan elected offices to be filled by a person of the same political party and limiting membership on the state Supreme Court Commission on Judicial Selection and Commission on Judicial Discipline to no more than one from the same political party.  The state Constitution also mentions primary elections but only to the point of limiting campaign contributions and ballot language related to a candidate’s acceptance of term limits. Nowhere in the Nevada Constitution are political parties or primary elections required.

I’ll continue to report monthly voter registration trends. The important question of whether increased major party registrations translate into increased voter turnout on June 14, 2016 is unknown. The Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017) would make this question irrelevant.  

Voter registration statistics for February, 2016 are in and no one should be surprised. However, the changes in voter share do raise two major questions.

Voter registration efforts in February by the presidential campaigns, major political parties, and candidates were successful in adding another 25,712 active voters to the rolls. Combined with January’s increase, 41,661 new voters registered to vote during the first two months of 2016, an increase of 3.48 percent. The Republican Party increased voter share at a higher rate than the Democratic Party state-wide, in Clark County, in the rural counties, and among those 55 years old and over. The Democratic Party out did the GOP in Washoe County and with 18 – 34 year olds. Again, not surprising, the increase in voter share of the two major political parties came at the expense of voter share of Non-Partisan and the minor political parties.

Did the increase in voter share have a positive impact on caucus participation? The answer is mixed. The Republican Party had their highest caucus turnout since the parties went to the caucus system in 2008. That’s not saying much though as only 18 percent of registered Republicans caucused. On the Democratic side, 17 percent of registered Democrats attended the caucus. This was down approximately nine percent from 2008 when there was not an incumbent president running. Combined, only 13 percent of the total electorate bothered to participate. And here lies the questions: Does increased voter share lead to increased voter turnout beyond the small party base? Why should any voter have to compromise their principles, beliefs, or personal integrity in order to cast a ballot?

State-Wide

Clark County

Washoe County

Rural Counties

18 – 34 Year Old

55+

The above trend is similar when looking at individual state assembly and senate districts. In the senate, the changes were small still leaving 11 districts (52.38%) where the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or total not registered as either Democratic or Republican either exceeds or is within five percent of one of the major political parties. In the assembly, 21 (50.00%) districts have the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or total not registered as either Democratic or Republican exceeding or within five percent of one of the major political parties. This is a decrease of four, however, those four districts do not fall into this category by less than one-tenth of one percent.

Does increased voter share lead to increased voter turnout beyond the small party base? Looking at the numbers for February, the answer has to be no. Given recent primary election turnout, it is doubtful this will change in June. Leading Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston summed it up in his March 2, 2016 Ralston Reports “Trump Effect will continue to resonate in Nevada” when he says: The numbers do not lie. The caucus turnout was 75,000, which more than doubled what it was four years ago but still represents less than 18 percent of the GOP electorate. Compare that to the last two cycles: In the 2014 primary, it was 19 percent, the same as it was in 2012. No reason not to believe the June electorate will be similar to the caucus electorate.”

 Why should any voter have to compromise their principles, beliefs, or personal integrity in order to cast a ballot?  The willingness not to compromise their principals, beliefs, or personal integrity is a high standard we hold those we are voting for to. Voters should not have to compromise theirs. Expanding the voter pool and giving voters a reason to go to the polls, not simply increasing voter share, will increase voter turnout. That is what the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017) proposes to accomplish.

Voter registration statistics for January, 2016 are in. Not surprising is that given the emphasis on the presidential caucuses and voter registration efforts by both the Democratic and Republican Parties along with their presidential candidates, the numbers show movement in their favor.

During the month of January, 2016, the state gained 15,949 voters over the previous month. The following tables show the impact.

State-Wide

Clark County

Washoe County

  

Rural Counties

18 – 34 Year Old

*NOTE – Non-Partisan registration exceeds Republican by 3.66%

55+

The above trend is similar when looking at individual state assembly and senate districts. In spite of the changes, there are still 11 (52.38%) state senate districts and 25 (59.52%) state assembly districts where the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or total not registered as either Democratic or Republican either exceeds or is within 5 percent of one of the major political parties.

Will state and local candidates be able to maintain this shift in voter registration following the caucuses up to the June primary election? Will any gains in registration equate to increased voter turnout? Only time will tell. What is certain is that the importance of the registered Non-Partisan voter cannot be ignored.

Party	Increase in # Voters	% Share of Increase
D	19,782	47.69
R	14,316	34.51
NP	7,384	17.80
Total	41,482

Party	Increase in # Voters	% Share of Increase	Change in Rate of Increase
D	15,898	37.76	-9.93
R	15,153	36.00	+1.49
NP	11,046	26.24	+8.44
Total	42,097

Party	Increase in # Voters	% Share of Increase	Change in Rate of Increase
D	33,677	36.58	-1.18
R	31,045	33.73	-2.27
NP	27,331	29.69	+3.45
Total	92,053

By all measurements, across all demographics, 2015 was not a good year for the Democratic Party in Nevada. While the Republican Party and Non-Partisan gained voter share, the Democratic Party lost share. In some areas, the loss was over one percent. Conversely, Republican gains also topped the one percent level. Minor parties also saw a loss. Figures are from December, 2014 and December, 2015 Secretary of State voter registration statistics.

 Clark County Percent Voter Share

These figures are not surprising. Monthly analyses posted on this blog have consistently shown growth of voters registered as Non-Partisan. While the monthly data has shown both the Democratic and Republican Parties losing voter share; the GOP has shown infrequent gains, recent voter file maintenance has benefited the GOP.

The Presidential Caucuses are one month away, the primary election a mere five. Will the campaigns foster interest that equates to increased partisan voter registration? I’ll be tracking. If registration in the parties increases significantly, will that result in higher primary election turn-out? We’ll know on June 14^th.

The November, 2015 voter registration figures released on December 1, 2015 by the Nevada Secretary of State’s office held a pleasant surprise for the Republican Party. A clean-up of the active voter list; a movement of 17,416 voters to the inactive rolls and a net decrease in active voters of 13,792, resulted in the GOP gaining just under 0.2% of voter share from October, 2015.

In less than three months, the Democratic and Republican Parties will hold their presidential nominating caucuses and in just short of seven months, their primaries for federal, state, and county offices. Yet according to the voter registration data released November 5, 2015 for the month of October, 2015 by the Nevada Secretary of State’s office more voters continue to register as Non-Partisan than either Democrat or Republican.

   

The Nevada Secretary of State’s office  released the voter registration numbers for September, 2015 on October 1^st and while the changes in percentage of voter share are in the low hundredths of a percent; the Democratic Party lost 0.04%, the Republican Party gained 0.01%, Non-Partisan gained 0.03%, and the minor parties’ share remained unchanged, the percent of increase in voters registered in each category is more significant. (NOTE: Registration as Non-Partisan had the largest increase in voter share)

The Nevada Secretary of State’s office  released the voter registration numbers for August, 2015 on September 1^st and while the changes are small; only 2,308 new voters joined the rolls, they continue to tell a story.

Reviewing the demographics raises an interesting question; what happened in the rural counties? Registration in the 15 rurals fell by over 6,400 voters. While all groups, Democratic, Republican, Non-Partisan, and minor parties all lost voters, the resulting numbers have the GOP with just under 50 percent; 49.9 vs 49.5 in July. The Democratic, Non-Partisan, and minor parties share all fell slightly.

Minor parties did not fare well in other demographics. They were unchanged in Clark County but lost registrants and share in Washoe County, among 18 – 34 year olds and those over 55 years old.

How did the others do? In Clark County, the Democratic Party lost a slight share of voters while the Republican Party’s share was unchanged and Non-Partisan had a slight increase. 26.3 percent, up slightly, choose to not identify with either major party (20.4 NP, 5.9 minor party) In Washoe County, Democratic and Non-Partisan share were unchanged from July. The GOP showed a slight increase. Because of the fall in minor party registration, the number of Washoe County voters not affiliating with either major party decreased from 26.5 percent in July to 26.3 percent in August (19.0 NP, 7.3 minor parties)

Among the age categories, 62.5 percent of new voters 18 -34 years of age registered with the Democratic Party and 34.3 percent registered as Non-Partisan. In this group, the Democratic Party’s share rose slightly, the Non-Partisan remained unchanged and the GOP fell slightly. Again, because of the decline of minor party registrants, the total percentage of voters not affiliated with the major parties dropped from 37.7 percent in July to 37.6 (29.5 NP, 8.1 minor party) in August. In the 55 and older group, the share of voters remained unchanged; 40.6 Democratic, 40.2 Republican, 13.9 Non-Partisan.

I understand some may question why I am reporting what are basically minor fluctuations. Given the differences are in the tenths and hundredths of a percent, aren’t the numbers really unchanged?  These people may be right. But nickels and dimes become dollars. As we get closer to February and the presidential caucuses and then to June and the primary, these small changes could result in significant differences. If the trend continues and the percentage of voters who voluntarily give up their right to participate in these events steadily increases, the dissatisfaction and frustration with both the Democratic and Republican Party will be difficult to ignore.