Republican Ground Game is Working But Will it Result in Votes

The voter registration numbers for February 2018 are out.

For the past few months the national Republican Party has been aggressive in targeting Nevada to increase voter registration in the party. Using an extensive data-driven process, the effort is paying off. Whether this will result in increased GOP turnout in the primary election and votes for GOP candidates in November will have to be seen. However, with the Democratic Party continuing to lose voter share across all tracked demographics, the GOP must feel energized.

State-Wide

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	2,316	0.41	38.57	-0.09
R	4,239	0.86	33.59	0.07
NP	2,310	0.74	21.36	0.02
Other	580	0.61	6.49	0.00
Total not D or R			27.85	0.02

Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters / voter share: IAP 0.66/0.00%; Lib 0.94/0.00%; other 5 parties 0.11/-0.01%

Clark County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	1,249	0.29	42.15	-0.08
R	2,270	0.75	29.37	0.08
NP	1,165	0.51	22.35	0.01
Other	199	0.31	6.14	-0.01
Total not D or R			28.49	0.00

Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters / voter share: IAP 0.36/0.00%  Lib 0.72/0.00%; other 5 parties -0.18/-0.01%

Washoe County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	175	0.20	35.14	-0.01
R	209	0.22	37.66	0.00
NP	143	0.28	20.06	0.01
Other	228	1.28	7.14	0.07
Total not D or R			27.20	0.08

Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters / voter share: IAP 0.23/0.00%; Lib 0.31/0.00%; other 5 parties -0.09 / 0.00%

Rural Counties

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	892	2.03	23.58	-0.03
R	1,760	1.85	51.21	-0.16
NP	1,002	3.08	17.70	0.16
Other	348	2.51	7.51	0.03
Total not D or R			25.21	0.19

Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters / voter share: IAP 2.30/0.01%; Lib 2.87/0.01%; other 5 parties 3.94/0.01%

18 – 34 Year Old

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	581	0.39	38.38	-0.14
R	1,255	1.41	23.37	0.15
NP	867	0.75	30.24	0.00
Other	201	0.65	8.01	-0.01
Total not D or R			38.25	-0.01

Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters / voter share: IAP 0.89/0.01%; Lib 0.78/0.00%; other 5 parties -0.07/-0.01%

55+

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	1,016	0.42	39.20	-0.08
R	1885	0.75	40.74	0.06
NP	671	0.73	14.81	0.02
Other	207	0.64	5.26	0.01
Total not D or R			20.07	0.03

Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters / voter share: IAP 0.64/0.00%; Lib 0.89/0.00%; other 5 parties 0.40/0.00%

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	4	0	0
Republican	1	3	0
Non-Partisan	1	3	0
Other	2	1	1

CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	19	2	0
Republican	2	18	1
Non-Partisan	4	12	5
Other	9	9	3

In 16 districts (76.19%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Assembly Districts

Party	# Districts Lose Voter Share	# Districts Gain Voter Share	# Districts No Change
Democratic	37	4	1
Republican	5	36	1
Non-Partisan	10	26	6
Other	23	13	1

In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

As we are now three months away from the primary election that will determine the choices all voters must select from in November, the composition and size of the primary election turnout will be critical. If the new Republican voters turn out, will they be more moderate than the current Republican base? If the Democratic Party continues to lose voter share, how will that impact the progressive candidates?

Candidate filing opens on March 6^th. Most candidates have already announced. Several races have multiple candidates. Even with the GOP posting voter share gains, nearly one-third of voters are not affiliated with either major party. Only a small number of voters are choosing the candidates for all voters with many then settling for the lesser of two evils in general election. What would the results be if all voters had a choice of all candidates in November?