GOP Loses Voter Share as Democrats Gain

As expected, with the presidential caucuses just completed and primary election campaigns kicking into high gear, Nevada voter registration statistics for March, 2016 continue to show a slight shift away from the growth of Non-Partisan voters. With minor exception, all registration groups; Democratic, Republican, Non-Partisan, and minor parties gained voters across all demographics. However in the more important statistic, voter share, the Democratic Party was the only group to increase voter share across all sectors of the electorate. The numbers are the complete opposite for the Republican Party, Non-Partisan, and minor parties. Not only did they lose voter share, they lost share in all sectors.

If this trend continues until close of registration for the general election it does not bode well for Republican chances to retain control of the state legislature or at-risk congressional seats. Conversely, if the trend subsides after close of registration for the primary and reverts back to Non-Partisan gaining voter share at the expense of the two major parties, are all bets off. My instinct tells me the later will come to pass.

The Non-Partisan and minor party loss of voter share leading up to the primary election is normal when primary elections are closed, restricted to those registered to vote in one of the major parties. If a person registered to vote as Non-Partisan or in one of the minor parties wishes to vote in a primary, they must re-register in the desired party. Since the general election has no party restriction, chances are these voters will switch back to their original registration following the primary. But will these new party members actually vote in the primary? Primary election turnout has averaged below 25 percent since 2000. 

State-Wide

Democratic increase Feb / Mar in voter share over Republican +1.39%

Clark County

Democratic increase Feb / Mar in voter share over Republican +0.91%

 Washoe County

Republican voter share over Democratic decreased Feb / Mar -0.96%

Rural Counties

Republican voter share over Democratic decreased Feb / Mar -0.18%

18 – 34 Year Old

Democratic increase Feb / Mar in voter share over Republican +1.53%

55+

Republican voter share over Democratic decreased Feb / Mar -0.07%

 In the legislature, both assembly and senate districts remain unchanged from February with 11 senate districts (52.38%) and 21 assembly districts (50%) having the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or total not registered as either Democratic or Republican either exceeding or  within five percent of one of the major political parties.

Given the low turnout of primary elections, it is questionable if the closed primary’s systemic exclusion of eligible voters produces the best results; effective and efficient government. This is especially questionable in races where only one party has candidates running in a primary and no Non-Partisan or minor party candidate has filed for the partisan office. Under a change to the Nevada elections statute made by the legislature in 2015, the winner of the primary becomes the sole candidate in the general election. In simple terms this means 20 – 25 percent of one political party’s registered voters (perhaps less than 10 percent of the total electorate) elects the office holder representing the entire constituency made up of voters of all persuasions.

Primary elections have been part of our election process for so long it’s possible some voters believe those elections and the parties themselves are part of the U.S. and / or Nevada Constitution.  Truth is political parties and primary elections are not mentioned anywhere in the U.S. Constitution. The Nevada Constitution does mention political parties but only in the context of requiring vacancies in partisan elected offices to be filled by a person of the same political party and limiting membership on the state Supreme Court Commission on Judicial Selection and Commission on Judicial Discipline to no more than one from the same political party.  The state Constitution also mentions primary elections but only to the point of limiting campaign contributions and ballot language related to a candidate’s acceptance of term limits. Nowhere in the Nevada Constitution are political parties or primary elections required.

I’ll continue to report monthly voter registration trends. The important question of whether increased major party registrations translate into increased voter turnout on June 14, 2016 is unknown. The Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017) would make this question irrelevant.