Election Time – Dems Falls Below 30% Voter Share, GOP Makes Big Jump and NP Drops

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform – November 2, 2024

In the general election, party affiliation does not play a role in one’s ability to vote for candidates. However, that did not stop voters from expressing party preference in October.  The Democratic Party fell below 30 percent voter share for the first time, the Republican Party registered significant gains across the board, and Non-Partisan share, while still the largest share statewide, in Clark County and among voters 18 to 54 years of age took a corresponding hit.

State-Wide

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D16,7312.82%29.97%-0.06%
R26,4844.61%29.52%0.44%
NP12,3691.86%33.22%-0.38%
IAP3,7894.29%4.52%0.05%
LIB1500.94%0.79%-0.02%
Other5531.39%1.98%-0.03%
Total not D or R  40.51%-0.38%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Clark County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D13,3962.93%32.20%-0.13%
R19,7775.53%25.84%0.53%
NP11,3232.27%34.96%-0.37%
IAP2,8134.61%4.37%0.05%
LIB1271.26%0.70%-0.01%
Other-122-0.43%1.93%-0.07%
Total not D or R  41.96%-0.40%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Washoe County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D2,6722.74%29.83%0.07%
R3,5373.35%32.46%0.27%
NP9050.93%29.37%-0.46%
IAP6063.85%4.86%0.06%
LIB20.06%1.06%-0.03%
Other4595.98%2.42%0.08%
Total not D or R  37.71%-0.35%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Rural Counties (See rural county table below district tables)

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D6631.72%16.46%-0.04%
R3,1702.86%47.96%0.42%
NP1410.21%27.91%-0.49%
IAP3703.22%4.98%0.06%
LIB210.90%0.99%-0.01%
Other2165.62%1.70%0.06%
Total not D or R  35.57%-0.38%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

18 – 34 Year Old

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D7,4734.95%27.28%0.15%
R10,32910.74%18.34%1.06%
NP4,6901.77%46.41%-1.18%
IAP1,4695.98%4.49%0.07%
LIB-3-0.05%1.11%-0.05%
Other3332.47%2.38%-0.04%
Total not D or R  54.39%-1.20%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

35 – 54 Year Old

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D4,8962.75%28.64%-0.16%
R8,9085.26%27.93%0.51%
NP5,3602.45%35.10%-0.31%
IAP1,3154.46%4.82%0.05%
LIB1071.66%1.03%-0.02%
Other670.42%2.49%-0.07%
Total not D or R  43.44%-0.35%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

55+

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D2,3880.91%32.93%-0.08%
R2,9850.98%38.72%0.17%
NP2,4721.41%22.35%-0.13%
IAP3030.91%4.31%0.04%
LIB70.22%0.38%0.00%
Other-23-0.23%1.31%-0.01%
Total not D or R  28.35%-0.10%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic310
Republican040
NP400
IAP040
LIB400
Other310
Not D or R400

In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party exceeds the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

In CD1, CD3, and CD4 NP holds the top

State Senate Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic1632
Republican0210
NP2100
IAP0210
LIB2001
Other1560
Not D or R2100

In all 21 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

In 16 (76.19%) of the 21 districts, the percentage of voters not registered as Democratic or Republican is the leading group of voters.

NP holds the top share in 10 districts (47.62%) SDs 2,5,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,21.

State Assembly Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic3291
Republican0420
NP4200
IAP1392
LIB3714
Other30120
Not D or R4200

In all 42 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

In 32 (76.19%) of the 42 districts, the percentage of voters not registered as Democratic or Republican is the leading group of voters. NP holds the top share in 19 districts (45.24%),

ADs 5,8,9,11,12,14,15,16,18,20,21,27,28,29,30,34,35,41, and 42

Rural Counties

Party# Counties Lose Voter Share# Counties Gain Voter Share# Counties No Change
Democratic960
Republican0150
NP1320
IAP0140
LIB1131
Other861
Not D or R1230

Combined NP / minor party is the largest group in Carson City

Average non-major party voter share counties is now 33.00 percent.

Two questions come to mind. How will these changes impact the results? Will we continue to see similar changes in voter share after the election?