Non-Partisan Voter Share Drops Among Younger Voters, GOP Gains

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform – October 3, 2024

Voter registration numbers for September showed something interesting, something I do not remember seeing right before a general election since I have been doing these reports. Non-Partisan voter share dropped among voters 18 to 34 years of age as well as in Washoe County, and the rurals.

Among the group of younger voters, Non-Partisan share decreased 0.30%. At the same time GOP share in that group increased 0.20%. In Washoe County, NP share fell 0.28% while minor party (other) gained 0.27% and in the rural counties, NP down 0.35%, minor party up 0.22%.

Though these changes are noteworthy, they did not impact the standing of Non-Partisan as the largest voting group in the state.

State-Wide

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D8,8011.51%30.04%-0.02%
R9,0711.60%29.08%0.01%
NP9,1411.40%33.60%-0.05%
IAP1,4881.72%4.47%0.01%
LIB1360.86%0.81%-0.01%
Other1,6844.42%2.01%0.06%
Total not D or R  40.89%0.01%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Clark County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D6,8621.52%32.33%-0.04%
R6,2441.78%25.31%0.03%
NP8,6831.77%35.33%0.04%
IAP8731.45%4.32%-0.01%
LIB890.89%0.71%-0.01%
Other1570.56%2.00%-0.02%
Total not D or R  42.36%0.00%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Washoe County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D1,3011.35%29.76%0.03%
R1,1081.06%32.19%-0.06%
NP3040.31%29.83%-0.28%
IAP3522.29%4.80%0.05%
LIB190.54%1.08%-0.01%
Other96114.30%2.34%0.27%
Total not D or R  38.05%0.03%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Rural Counties (See rural county table below district tables)

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D6381.68%16.50%0.04%
R1,7191.57%47.55%0.05%
NP1540.23%28.39%-0.35%
IAP2632.35%4.92%0.04%
LIB281.22%1.00%0.00%
Other56617.28%1.65%0.22%
Total not D or R  35.95%-0.09%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

18 – 34 Year Old

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D3,1912.16%27.13%0.04%
R3,0173.24%17.28%0.20%
NP3,5891.37%47.59%-0.30%
IAP4972.06%4.42%0.00%
LIB430.67%1.16%-0.02%
Other6595.14%2.42%0.07%
Total not D or R  55.59%-0.25%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

35 – 54 Year Old

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D2,8551.63%28.80%-0.02%
R3,0281.82%27.42%0.03%
NP3,3151.54%35.41%-0.06%
IAP4861.68%4.77%0.00%
LIB821.29%1.04%0.00%
Other5603.67%2.56%0.05%
Total not D or R  43.78%-0.01%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

55+

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %
D2,3880.91%33.01%-0.03%
R2,9850.98%38.55%-0.06%
NP2,4721.41%22.48%0.03%
IAP3030.91%4.27%0.01%
LIB70.22%0.38%0.00%
Other-23-0.23%1.31%0.04%
Total not D or R  28.45%0.08%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic220
Republican040
NP130
IAP112
LIB202
Other310
Not D or R400

In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party exceeds the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

In CD1, CD3, and CD4 NP holds the top

State Senate Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic1083
Republican8112
NP9111
IAP984
LIB10110
Other1371
Not D or R10110

In all 21 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

In 16 (76.19%) of the 21 districts, the percentage of voters not registered as Democratic or Republican is the leading group of voters.

NP holds the top share in 10 districts (47.62%) SDs 2,5,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,21.

State Assembly Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic23172
Republican16260
NP18222
IAP19212
LIB24414
Other25143
Not D or R17241

In all 42 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

In 33 (78.57%) of the 42 districts, the percentage of voters not registered as Democratic or Republican is the leading group of voters. NP holds the top share in 22 districts (52.38%),

ADs 2,5,8,9,11,12,14,15,16,18,20,21,24,27,28,29,30,34,35,37,41, and 42

Rural Counties

Party# Counties Lose Voter Share# Counties Gain Voter Share# Counties No Change
Democratic780
Republican780
NP1140
IAP3120
LIB933
Other3120
Not D or R870

Combined NP / minor party is the largest group in Carson City

Average non-major party voter share counties is now 33.22 percent.

Do these changes in Non-Partisan voter share give any indication of how those voters will vote or what the impact on election results will be? October numbers may give us a better idea.