Candidates Win in Low Turnout Closed Primary Why We Need Final Five Voting – OPINION

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform – January 15, 2021

Ever wonder how many votes it takes to win an election? If you are running for office in Nevada, not as many as you may think.

Since 2016, 23 candidates have been elected to either the state legislature or county-wide positions with as little as five percent (5%) of the voters in their district. If you are confused, wondering how this could happen or if in fact it is legal, continue reading.

Prior to 2015 if either only the Democratic or Republican Party had candidates for a partisan office; if Democratic candidates and no Republican, minor party, or Non-Partisan candidates, if Republican candidates and no Democratic, minor party, or Non-Partisan candidates, the top two candidates in the primary would go on the general election ballot so all voters could vote for their preferred candidate. Under our current election process this is the way it should be,

This changed during the 2015 legislative session. Under SB499, under the conditions outlined above, the winner of the primary (keep in mind Nevada uses closed primaries where only members of the party are allowed to vote), goes on the general election ballot unopposed. This means they were elected in the primary where less than 30 percent (30%) of party members bother to vote and non-party members; a clear majority of voters in any given district had no say.

If we look at the 2016, 2018, and 2020 election cycle, the 23 candidates that were elected with an average of 15 percent of the vote of party members and seven (7) percent of the vote of all voters in their district. This is not only unfair to voters but also to the winning candidate who hardly has a mandate of their constituents.

2016          
DistCandidateParty# CandidatesWinning voteTotal votesTotal Party RegT/OTotal Reg% Party% dist
SD4AtkiinsonD23,9265,89227,42421.48%66,82814.32%5.87%
AD13AndersonR31,7382,79614,25819.61%34,72112.19%5.01%
AD19EdwardsR21,9603,20312,15626.35%31,25616.12%6.27%
AD26KrasnerR23,4486,23220,32430.66%44,43916.97%7.76%
      Avg24.53% 14.90%6.23%
2018          
SD10CancelaD22,8544,72525,53318.51%52,31111.18%5.46%
AD24PetersD41,7803,78414,71925.71%32,59912.09%5.46%
AD33EllisonR24,1755,37517,05231.52%30,70124.48%13.60%
AD42AssefaD31,3992,52911,59021.82%24,87512.07%5.62%
ClK DAWolfsonD254,34797,306419,04223.22%996,37512.97%5.45%
Churchill ClkRotheryR22,2733,10713,26423.42%29,47117.14%7.71%
Douglas AssessorTholenR24,2228,22618,14745.33%33,45223.27%12.62%
Eureka ClkHoehneR226644469064.35%97438.55%27.31%    
Lincoln DAFrehnerR25028151,65449.27%2,77430.35%18.10%
Lyon TreasBryanR24,2495,38317,26831.17%34,34924.61%12.37%
Nye AdminStumneR23,2684,73513,28935.63%27,81324.59%11.75%
Pershing AssessorBasso-CeriniR24726881,31852.20%2,42435.81%19.47%
Storey DALangerR24588461,56254.16%3,08529.32%14.85%
White Pine ClkBaldwinR25531,0082,26844.44%4,48824.38%12.32%
      Avg24.16% 14.56%7.12%
           
2020          
SD7LangeD33,6729,59631,60530.36%68,93211.62%5.33%
AD19BlackR23,8036,23115,57040.02%40,05024.43%9.50%
AD20OrentlicherD42,2994,94715,21532.51%33,82115.11%6.80%
AD36HafenR24,8518,84122,26539.71%48,59421.79%9.98%
AD38TitusR26,7808,73622,43638.94%43,05730.22%15.75%
      Avg36.31% 20.63%9.47%
      overall Avg28.33% 16.70%7.61%

There were several county commission races impacted as well, however, because it is more difficult to find the voter registration data by district, they are not included.

Two attempts to correct this voter suppression measure were made, one during the 2017 legislative session (by the same sponsor of the original bill), the other during the 2019 session. The first bill did not get a hearing. The second bill passed the assembly but did not get a senate committee vote. Legislative majority in the three sessions involved: 2015 Republican, 2017 and 2019 Democratic.

Given the legislature does not want to reverse the voter suppression it has implemented, it is up to the voters. This is why passage of the Better Voting Nevada initiative, that will implement Final Five Voting (FFV) where the right of all voters to cast ballots in the primary regardless of party is guaranteed and then vote for the top five candidates indicating their ranked preference for each allowing voters to vote their conscience, is critical.

2021 – Non-Partisan and Minor Parties Register Significant Voter Share Growth While Major Parties Record Loses

By Doug Goodman -Founder & Executive Director Nevadans for Election Reform – January5, 2021

2021 witnessed significant voter share growth for Non-Partisan and minor parties while both the Democratic and Republican Party saw similar noteworthy loses. For the month of December 2021, the numbers continue to show the same trend. It is important to note that as in November, the voter share of those listed as “other” once again saw very minor declines. 

The perception is that the increase in Non-Partisan voters is almost totally due to automatic voter registration and the Department of Motor Vehicles. However, the secretary of state’s office reports the percent of new voter registrations defaulting to Non-Partisan is only 59 percent.

Another interesting fact is the number of major party voters changing parties or registering as Non-Partisan. Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent tracks that movement here.

The Nevada legislature approved new district maps and the governor approved them in November. While a lawsuit has been filed challenging the maps, they are in effect until a judge rules otherwise. The by-district numbers for December appear to reflect the impact of the redrawn districts.

State-Wide

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %2020 – 2021 Voter Share Change
D1,6140.26%33.94%-0.18%-2.70%
R2,2930.42%29.88%-0.11%-2.47%
NP10,3672.07%27.68%0.35%3.59%
IAP6360.77%4.49%0.00%-0.02%
LIB1170.67%0.95%0.00%-0.03%
Other-709-1.23%3.07%-0.06%1.63%
Total not D or R  36.19%0.29%5.17%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Clark County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %2020 – 2021 Voter Share Change
D1,5000.31%36.82%-0.20%-3.11%
R1,5900.47%25.99%-0.10%-2.47%
NP7,9382.17%28.63%0.37%3.73%
IAP4600.82%4.34%0.00%0.00%
LIB930.86%0.84%0.00%-0.03%
Other-461-1.03%3.39%-0.06%1.89%
Total not D or R  37.19%029%5.58%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Washoe County

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %2020 – 2021 Voter Share Change
D1090.11%32.56%-0.13%-1.97%
R2890.28%32.83%-0.08%-2.11%
NP1,2261.50%25.99%0.25%2.86%
IAP1160.79%4.63%0.01%0.06%
LIB-1-0.02%1.26%-0.01%-0.02%
Other-120-1.36%2.74%-0.05%1.18%
Total not D or R  34.61%0.20%4.07%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Rural Counties

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %2020 – 2021 Voter Share Change
D50.01%19.13%-0.13%-1.86%
R4140.38%48.30%-0.16%-2.39%
NP1,2032.24%24.51%0.37%3.67%
IAP600.52%5.21%-0.01%-0.20%
LIB251.00%1.13%0.00%-0.01%
Other-128-3.22%1.71%-0.07%0.79%
Total not D or R  32.57%0.29%4.25%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

Change 2020 – 2021 by county

CountyDRNPIAPLIBONot D or R
Carson City-1.86%-2.88%3.98%-0.05%-0.01%0.83%4.75%
Churchill-1.56%-1.97%3.10%-0.29%-0.03%0.75%3.53%
Douglas-1.30%-2.41%2.78%0.01%0.07%0.86%3.72%
Elko-1.27%-2.10%2.90%-0.07%-0.12%0.66%3.37%
Esmeralda-2.99%-4.89%8.77%-0.91%0.08%-0.06%7.88%
Eureka-0.46%-2.60%3.49%-0.64%-0.07%0.28%3.06%
Humboldt-0.66%-1.69%1.79%-0.01%-0.05%0.62%2.35%
lander-1.45%-2.14%3.32%-0.30%0.11%0.45%3.58%
Lincoln-2.49%0.58%1.69%-0.83%0.01%1.04%1.91%
Lyon-2.11%-3.08%4.53%-0.21%-0.02%0.89%5.19%
Mineral-2.79%-2.57%5.78%-0.68%-0.02%0.28%5.36%
Nye-3.24%-1.86%4.74%-0.49%-0.07%0.92%5.10%
Pershing-1.31%-2.62%3.59%-0.11%0.07%0.38%3.93%
Storey-1.52%-1.82%2.63%-0.23%0.15%0.78%3.34%
White Pine-1.98%-2.62%4.39%-0.26%0.02%0.45%4.60%

18 – 34 Year Old

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %2020 – 2021 Voter Share Change
D2540.15%33.19%-0.26%-4.31%
R2310.24%18.53%-0.13%-2.88%
NP4,4182.27%38.19%0.50%5.39%
IAP1490.64%4.47%-0.01%-0.25%
LIB440.57%1.50%-0.01%-0.12%
Other-224-1.03%4.12%-0.08%2.18%
Total not D or R  48.28%0.40%7.19%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

55+

PartyChange in # Voters% Change% Voter ShareDifference in Voter Share %2020 – 2021 Voter Share Change  
D6390.24%35.56%-0.12%-1.68%
R1,0090.35%38.81%-0.06%-1.97%
NP2,3131.69%18.96%0.23%2.52%
IAP2560.80%4.34%0.01%0.14%
LIB80.25%0.43%0.00%0.00%
Other-85-0.58%1.90%-0.05%4.44%
Total not D or R  25.63%0.19%3.65%

Other includes Green Party, Natural Law Party, other or not specified.

By district voter share changes.

Congressional Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic220
Republican220
NP130
IAP220
LIB211
Other220

In all Congressional districts (100 percent of the districts) the number of voters not affiliated with either major party exceeds the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

Change 2020 – 2021

DistrictDRNPIAPLIBONot D or R
1-8.32%3.57%2.94%0.23%-0.03%1.60%4.75%
2-1.85%-2.20%3.04%0.00%-0.02%1.04%4.06%
3-0.68%-4.99%3.80%-0.13%-0.04%2.04%5.67%
4-2.14%-3.81%4.28%-0.11%-0.03%1.80%5.95%

State Senate Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic1470
Republican1470
NP3180
IAP8121
LIB885
Other1650

In all 21 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

Change 2020 – 2021

DistrictDRNPIAPLIBONot D or R
1-3.53%-2.33%3.83%-0.07%0.03%2.07%5.86%
2-6.79%-0.55%5.44%-0.09%-0.01%2.00%7.33%
3-6.46%1.49%3.24%-0.01%-0.01%1.76%4.97%
4-5.48%-0.55%4.21%-0.06%-0.05%1.93%6.03%
5-4.21%-0.71%3.11%0.08%-0.06%1.79%4.92%
6-1.92%-3.54%3.58%0.07%0.00%1.81%5.46%
7-2.18%-3.90%4.44%-0.16%-0.08%1.88%6.09%
8-1.77%-4.32%3.98%0.11%-0.06%2.07%6.09%
9-0.08%-4.91%3.17%-0.21%-0.10%2.12%4.98%
10-7.66%1.08%5.01%-0.20%-0.05%1.83%6.59%
11-7.72%1.81%3.47%0.26%0.02%2.15%5.91%
123.60%-11.17%5.37%-0.17%0.10%2.26%7.57%
13-3.10%-1.84%3.75%-0.01%-0.05%1.26%4.94%
14-1.62%-2.27%2.84%-0.03%0.02%1.06%3.89%
15-1.65%-2.12%2.55%0.04%-0.03%1.20%3.77%
16-1.51%-2.50%2.98%0.09%-0.01%0.94%4.01%
17-1.64%-2.63%3.54%-0.13%0.02%0.85%4.27%
18-1.60%-3.07%2.84%0.10%-0.04%1.77%4.67%
19-2.12%-2.56%3.86%-0.23%-0.06%1.11%4.68%
20-9.60%7.98%0.72%0.39%-0.16%0.67%1.62%
21-2.95%-2.91%3.98%0.08%-0.02%3.48%5.87%

State Assembly Districts

Party# Districts Lose Voter Share# Districts Gain Voter Share# Districts No Change
Democratic28131
Republican23190
NP9321
IAP15225
LIB15198
Other32  100

In all 42 districts (100%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

Change 2020 – 2021

DistrictDRNPIAPLIBONot D or R
1-2.92%-1.67%2.79%0.01%0.05%1.73%4.58%
2-0.98%-4.46%3.43%0.15%-0.06%1.92%5.44%
3-6.38%1.27%3.23%0.13%-0.02%1.77%5.11%
4-2.03%-1.92%2.24%0.06%-0.06%1.71%3.95%
5-2.10%-5.07%4.90%0.00%-0.06%2.33%7.17%
6-5.58%-0.62%4.43%-0.18%-0.04%1.98%6.20%
7-5.72%-0.18%4.01%0.06%-0.05%1.88%5.90%
8-4.69%-1.38%3.86%-0.03%0.01%2.24%6.08%
9-2.83%-2.85%3.73%-0.09%-0.02%2.07%5.68%
10-6.53%1.50%3.35%-0.11%-0.01%1.80%5.03%
11-6.84%-0.77%5.60%0.13%-0.06%1.94%7.61%
12-1.61%-3.60%3.60%-0.06%-0.09%1.76%5.21%
13-0.17%-5.33%3.61%0.04%-0.01%1.87%5.50%
14-5.39%-1.24%4.34%0.30%0.09%1.89%6.62%
15-7.64%-2.99%8.27%0.05%0.16%2.16%10.63%
16-7.54%4.93%1.81%-0.46%-0.23%1.49%2.61%
17-4.79%-1.80%4.37%-0.03%0.00%2.25%6.59%
18-3.38%-2.81%4.46%-0.15%-0.09%1.96%6.18%
19-7.63%4.30%2.27%0.12%-0.01%0.96%3.34%
20-0.71%-4.78%3.97%-0.16%-0.05%1.73%5.48%
21-3.11%-2.10%3.43%0.13%-0.05%1.69%5.20%
22-1.54%-3.72%3.37%0.05%0.02%1.82%5.26%
23-0.66%-1.76%2.63%0.31%-0.05%-0.48%2.42%
24-3.57%-1.46%4.02%-0.05%-0.07%1.13%5.04%
25-1.24%-2.22%2.21%0.15%0.01%1.09%3.46%
26-1.37%-2.28%2.48%0.16%-0.02%1.03%3.65%
27-2.17%-1.98%2.97%-0.09%-0.07%1.34%4.15%
28-6.71%-0.31%5.28%-0.35%0.04%2.05%7.03%
29-1.36%-5.04%4.50%-0.11%-0.01%2.02%6.39%
30-2.63%-2.25%3.51%0.02%-0.03%1.38%4.87%
31-1.80%-2.37%2.81%0.00%0.03%1.33%4.16%
32-1.47%-2.09%2.86%-0.06%0.01%0.75%3.56%
33-1.46%-1.74%2.87%-0.22%-0.10%0.65%3.20%
34-3.28%-1.93%3.43%-0.12%-0.03%1.93%5.22%
35-3.01%-1.78%2.48%0.19%-0.05%2.18%4.79%
36-2.04%-3.81%4.63%-0.22%-0.04%1.47%5.85%
37-0.51%-5.39%3.90%0.21%0.04%1.75%5.90%
38-1.85%-2.91%4.19%-0.23%-0.04%0.85%4.76%
39-1.51%-2.42%3.04%-0.04%0.07%0.85%3.92%
40-1.70%-2.75%3.60%0.01%0.01%0.84%4.45%
41-2.80%-3.22%3.68%0.04%-0.07%2.37%6.02%
42-5.11%-0.39%3.52%0.00%-0.10%2.07%5.49%

As we begin an election year, it will be interesting to see if interest in the closed primaries cause voters to register accordingly and switch back before the general election in November.