Month: October 2016

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Close of Voter Registration – Non-Partisans and Minor Party Will Determine Outcome

Voter registration for the 2016 general election has closed. Some interesting numbers: -5.87%,    -3.92%, +19.21%, +7.93%. These are the percentage of change in voter share since the last presidential election for the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, Non-Partisan, and minor parties. Here is the 2012 to 2016 comparison.
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share – 2012
% Voter Share – 2016
Difference in Voter Share %
% Change
D
50,693
9.62
41.90
39.44
-2.46
-5.87
R
52,062
11.92
34.73
33.17
-1.36
-3.92
NP
85,229
38.86
17.44
20.79
3.35
19.21
Other
19,214
25.78
5.93
6.40
0.47
7.93
Total not D or R
23.37
27.19
3.82
16.35
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +8.95%; Lib +5.84%; other 5 parties +114.10%
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share – 2012
% Voter Share – 2016
Difference in Voter Share %
% Change
D
48,545
12.44
45.82
43.09
-2.73
-5.96
R
33,753
12.84
30.85
29.12
-1.73
-5.61
NP
70,055
46.24
17.78
21.76
3.98
22.38
Other
14,145
29.95
5.54
6.03
0.49
8.84
Total not D or R
23.32
27.79
4.47
19.17
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +9.12%; Lib +57.86%; other 5 parties +170.00%
Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share – 2012
% Voter Share – 2016
Difference in Voter Share %
% Change
D
3,701
4.77
37.60
35.86
-1.74
-4.63
R
6,197
6.74
38.08
37.25
-0.83
-2.18
NP
9,407
22.11
17.62
19.70
2.08
11.80
Other
2,757
17.03
6.71
7.19
0.48
7.15
Total not D or R
24.33
26.89
2.56
10.52
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.92%; Lib +57.20%; other 5 parties +50.18%
 Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share – 2012
% Voter Share – 2016
Difference in Voter Share %
% Change
D
-1,553
-3.38
27.94
24.23
-3.71
-13.28
R
12,112
14.76
49.92
51.45
1.53
3.06
NP
5,794
22.93
15.37
16.97
1.60
10.41
Other
2,312
20.80
6.77
7.34
0.57
8.42
Total not D or R
22.14
24.31
2.17
9.80
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +15.97%; Lib +63.0%; other 5 parties +16.76%
Voter registration for the 18 days of October strengthen the assumption that in addition to turnout, those registered as Non-Partisan and in minor parties will determine the outcome. Younger voters, those between the ages of 18 to 34 should also have a major impact. Their numbers grew by just over 10 percent in these 18 days. That is on top of the seven percent growth recorded for that demographic in September. Another point that should gain attention is that in 18 days many of the changes in voter share exceed + / – one-half percent.
Early voting has begun. As voters head to the polls, the trend, fewer voters associating with either major political party continues.  We will know the true impact in a few weeks.
 State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
29,102
5.30
39.44
-0.12
R
17,751
3.77
33.37
-0.61
NP
25,164
9.01
20.79
0.64
Other
6,252
7.15
6.40
0.09
Total not D or R
27.19
0.73
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +5.06%; Lib +10.73%; other 5 parties +12.59%
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
24,562
5.93
43.09
-0.17
R
12,382
4.36
29.12
-0.55
NP
19,277
9.53
21.76
0.64
Other
4,371
7.67
6.03
0.08
Total not D or R
27.79
0.72
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +5.89%; Lib +11.71%; other 5 parties +11.14%
 Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
3,249
3.56
35.86
-0.18
R
2,168
2.26
37.25
-0.66
NP
3,716
7.71
19.70
0.66
Other
1,208
6.81
7.19
0.18
Total not D or R
26.89
0.84
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +3.0%; Lib +9.50%; other 5 parties +18.08%
Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
1,291
3.0
24.23
-0.29
R
3,201
3.52
51.45
-0.32
NP
2,171
7.51
16.97
0.53
Other
673
5.28
7.34
0.08
Total not D or R
24.31
0.61
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +4.25%; Lib +8.44%; other 5 parties +10.50%
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
13,378
9.46
39.45
-0.21
R
6,168
7.17
22.87
-0.61
NP
13,914
13.16
29.68
0.82
Other
3,409
11.81
8.01
0.13
Total not D or R
37.69
0.95
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +8.64%; Lib +15.20%; other 5 parties +16.77%
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
5,951
2.56
40.05
-0.05
R
4,984
2.10
40.64
-0.24
NP
3,669
4.53
14.20
0.26
Other
1,008
3.42
5.11
0.04
Total not D or R
19.31
0.30
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.78%; Lib +4.02%; other 5 parties +7.65%
 Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.
Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
4
0
0
Republican
4
0
0
Non-Partisan
0
4
0
Other
0
4
0
In CD 1 there are over two percent more voters registered as Non-Partisan than Republican. When minor party registrations are added, the difference is over eight percent.
State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
20
0
1
Republican
21
0
0
Non-Partisan
0
21
0
Other
0
21
0
In 13 districts (61.90%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of one district over September, 2016
State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
42
0
0
Republican
42
0
0
Non-Partisan
2
40
0
Other
0
42
0
In 29 districts (69.05%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of 2 districts over September, 2016
This data reinforces the fact that voters are disillusioned with the current state of the political landscape and are expressing that disillusionment by not affiliating with either major political party or any political party. I do not believe the parties can reverse this feeling in the near future. They can however, recognize the landscape and adapt to it. The Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017) provides the tool.

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2016 – Have We Reached the Pinnacle of Negativity?

Campaign Season 2016 backs up recent studies that show partisanship is the most divisive issue facing our nation and that civility has all but disappeared from our political process.  Unless something is done to reverse this trend, could we reach the point where the ability to govern ceases?
According to a Pew Research study released October 18, 2016, elected officials are viewed as least likely to act in the public’s best interest.  A clear majority, 54 percent have “not too much confidence” while another 19 percent express “no confidence”. Only three percent express a “great deal of confidence” that elected officials act in the public’s best interest.  
The impact of negativity on legislating becomes critical when looking at the recent history of divided government; one party has the presidency and the other party controls at least one chamber of Congress, and voters support or opposition for single party control.  It is also important when one party controls both the executive and legislative branches of government, minimizing or shutting out the views and input of the minority party.
It is up to candidates and elected officials to set the tone and climate of the campaigns and legislative sessions. However in recent years, the level of partisanship expressed by the vocal minority of voters (the so-called party base) makes collaboration difficult for out of fear of upsetting the base..losing the next primary election.  It is often difficult for rational, respectful dialog and debate to take place.
It does not have to be this way. Civility, the willingness to listen to opposing views, and then collaborate on solutions can be returned to our political process. Elected officials can rise from the bottom and regain the trust of all Americans. The use of Ranked Choice / Instant Run-off Voting (RCV / IRV) has shown to be the way.
In 2015, Fairvote.org released a two-year study, The Civility Project, which looked at the impact of RCV / IRV on the tone of campaigns. It also looked at voter understanding of the process. Overall, the study found campaigns were less negative according to both voters and candidates. Voters had no problem understanding the process and expressed support for it over previously used systems. Civility during the campaign should translate to more collaboration and civility when legislating.
All elections are “local”. How a state elects its representatives in the U.S. House of Representatives down to how members of a city council are elected is determined by the states. In Nevada, the legislature can take a step towards restoring civility to the campaign and legislative process by enacting the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017) during the session that begins in less than four months.

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Broken Political System Biggest Cause of Negative Economic Progress and Competitiveness

Jobs and the economy are often the top concerns mentioned by voters. Now the state of our political process is being listed as the major contributor to what many see as a sluggish recovery where the middle class is being left behind.
The biggest obstacle to U.S. economic progress and competitiveness is our broken, highly partisan, political system. This is the opinion of a Harvard Business School report published last month (September, 2016).
According to the authors of the report“PROBLEMS UNSOLVED AND A NATION DIVIDED; The State of U.S. Competitiveness 2016 Including findings from Harvard Business School’s 2016 surveys on U.S. competitiveness” “..we believe that our political system is now the major obstacle to progress on the economy..” and “..that dysfunction in America’s political system is now the single most important challenge to U.S. economic progress.”
Before writing specifically about the political dysfunction, the authors cover an overview of economic competitiveness, U.S. economic performance, the business environment, the need for a national economic strategy, and tax reform.  However, there is a constant theme throughout the report. All the issues addressed require a political environment that allows for collaboration, a clear discussion of opposing points of view, and agreement on public and private actions required.
The report also mentions the findings of Pew Research, findings that I have also reported and mentioned several times, that partisanship is the most divisive issue facing this country. It also lists election reforms that could be implemented to return the political process to the point where solutions could be achieved.
If our country, our states, our counties, and our cities are to make economic progress and be competitive, our political and governing mechanisms must facilitate the implementation of programs addressing the various elements of a vibrant economic system. Civility must be a cornerstone. The willingness to actively listen to all points of view, to collaborate on solutions to the root causes must be allowed to flourish.  
During the 2015 Nevada legislative session, the Senate Legislative Operations and Elections Committee introduced legislation to change the political climate in Nevada. The bill as introduced varied from the Bill Draft Request (BDR) and following a hearing, the bill language was stripped and the bill used for another purpose.
In 2017, legislators can take off where the  2015 session left off by filing a BDR then enacting  the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017).

Jobs and the economy are often the top concerns mentioned by voters. The creation of jobs is a key argument as the Nevada legislature considers a tax increase to build a football stadium, as I write this article. Perhaps the Nevada legislature should take the findings of the Harvard Business School seriously. The key to fixing Nevada’s economy could be easier than originally thought.
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Younger Voters (18 – 34 years old) Increase by 7 Percent / Non-Partisan Tops 20 Percent

Voter registration numbers for September, 2016 have been released and two numbers stand out. The number of voters 18 – 34 years of age grew by almost seven percent. This is not quite double (75 percent) the overall increase for the state (3.86 percent). Also, for the first time, voters registered as Non-Partisan top 20 percent of total active voters.
The Democratic and Republican Parties should also be concerned in that they continue to lose voter share to Non-Partisan and minor parties and are picking up new voters at a rate less than one-half the rate of those two groups. This continuing trend resonates across all demographics.
State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
17,473
3.29
39.56
-0.22
R
11,643
2.53
33.98
-0.44
NP
17,614
6.73
20.15
0.54
Other
4,861
5.88
6.31
0.12
Total not D or R
26.46
0.66
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +3.47%; Lib +9.81%; other 5 parties +13.17%
Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
15,309
3.84
43.26
-0.27
R
8,257
2.99
29.67
-0.43
NP
14,144
7.52
21.12
0.60
Other
3,402
6.35
5.95
0.10
Total not D or R
27.07
0.70
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +3.85%; Lib +10.48%; other 5 parties +13.03%
 Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
1,461
1.63
36.04
-0.25
R
1,210
1.28
37.91
-0.41
NP
2,250
4.90
19.04
0.46
Other
897
5.32
7.01
0.20
Total not D or R
26.05
0.66
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.0%; Lib +9.27%; other 5 parties +15.13%
Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
703
1.66
24.52
-0.26
R
2,176
2.45
51.77
-0.14
NP
1,220
4.41
16.44
0.26
Other
562
4.61
7.26
0.13
Total not D or R
23.70
0.39
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.75%; Lib +7.83%; other 5 parties +8.43%
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
7,910
5.76
39.66
-0.39
R
3,577
4.34
23.48
-0.56
NP
9,162
9.46
28.86
0.62
Other
2,562
9.74
7.88
0.21
Total not D or R
36.74
0.83
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +5.40%; Lib +14.35%; other 5 parties +17.68%
55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
4,248
1.86
40.10
-0.13
R
4,255
1.83
40.88
-0.14
NP
3,005
3.85
13.94
0.22
Other
875
3.06
5.07
0.04
Total not D or R
19.01
0.26
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.19%; Lib +3.83%; other 5 parties +9.22%
Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.
Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
4
0
0
Republican
4
0
0
Non-Partisan
0
4
0
Other
0
4
0
In CD 1 the number of voters not affiliated with either major party exceeds those registered as Republican by 5.79%. The difference between GOP and Non-Partisan in CD1 is <0.25%. At the end of July, 2016 the difference was over 0.60%
State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
21
0
0
Republican
21
0
0
Non-Partisan
0
21
0
Other
0
21
0
In 12 districts (57.14%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
42
0
0
Republican
42
0
0
Non-Partisan
2
40
0
Other
0
42
0
In 27 districts (64.29%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is an increase of 3 districts over August, 2016
September was National Voter Registration Month. Voters registered as Non-Partisan and not affiliated with either major political party will be a major factor in many races. By registering as Non-Partisan or in a minor party, voters are clearly stating something is wrong with either the two-party system or the way the Democratic and Republican Party are addressing the issues.
These voters’ concerns should also be recognized during the upcoming Nevada legislative session as well as in Congress and county commission and city council meetings.  The Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act for 2017 (NEMRA – 2017) provides the path to accomplish this task.

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